Eight races will be run and won at Doomben this Easter Saturday with good depth right across the board. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:12) : James Boags Premium Doomben 10000 Handicap (75) 2220m:
Back Me: 2 Toni May (Bet Now: $2.30) clearly on top for me. This Paul Jenkins mare has come back in super order this time in. Last two starts have been over the Sunny Coast mile. First time out she spanked them in a field of four. The last start saw her left flatfooted and that cost her the win, but she was very good late and through the line. Immediately steps up to the 2220m here, but the field doesn’t appear to carry much depth, and I think she has upside.
Big Danger: 3 Speed Gonzales (Bet Now: $6.00) is another with fresh legs and perhaps better formlines here. He ran over the mile in a 75 handicap here two weeks back and stuck to the task quite gamely I thought behind Kalandula. That form does read well against this lot and though untried at the trip, he gives the impression he will handle it.
Long Shot: This race really has a long tail to it. 10 Nelumbo (Bet Now: $13.00) could be next pick but with no confidence. Four year old gelding for Brad Herne who ran over 1750m at the Gold Coast last time out where he led all the way and fought hard all the way for a narrow win. Untried beyond 1800m, but he does look the leader, and with a dry track at Doomben with the rail out, it will be no disadvantage.
Race Two (12:47) : Hardy Brothers Doomben Cup Day Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Snitz (Bet Now: $4.00) clearly on top for me here. Smart looking gelding for the Matty Dunn yard who debuted at Grafton and spanked them before coming here where he was a bit tardy away and then wanted to lay in badly. Should have won but had to settle for a minor spot. If he puts it all together here, he will be winning.
Big Danger: 6 Red Phantom (Bet Now: $11.00) is a first starter here for the Gollan camp. Looks to take on a few above average youngsters here, but he too looks capable off the back of a nice trial effort at Deagon. Will be interesting to see what the market does with him.
Long Shot: 11 Zap (Bet Now: $12.00) had market support late when debuting here two weeks back but the Stuart Kendrick trained youngster really struggled on the bog track and couldn’t really come on. Will be much better suited on firmer footing and can definitely bounce back.
Race Three (13:22) : Darley Kingsford Smith Cup Day Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Pricing Power (Bet Now: $11.00) just picks herself here I think. Clary Conners trained filly who comes to QLD with some really good form next to her name, including a decent run behind Slipper winner She Will Reign. Resumed at Kembla Grange and struggled on the heavy track. With a likely firmer track here, she will take some beating.
Big Danger: 12 Ponytales (Bet Now: $9.00) is a well bred grey filly that debuts for the Tony Gillan camp. Looks capable of measuring up here on debut off the back of a nice trial effort recently at Deagon where she looked to go about her business nicely. Keen to see what she does here.
Long Shot: 4 Friends (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Denman filly that debuted at Ipswich where she defied an alarming market drift to score a superb on speed win, and run decent closing splits on the wet track. On times, she can measure up here and stable can produce a handy youngster.
Race Four (13:57) : Ascot Green Carnival High Tea Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 12 Tumbler (Bet Now: $1.90) looks one of the better bets on the program for me here. High class mare that resumes for Barry Lockwood. Sparingly raced, largely due to injury, but I think the stable have kept her on ice for some blacktype this Carnival, and I am confident that they will get it. Trialled up brilliantly at Deagon recently and I think only bad luck beats her.
Big Danger: 7 Lady Jetsetter (Bet Now: $5.00) is a ripping mare for the Liam Birchely camp. Always tries hard and rarely runs a bad race. She ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where she had a charmed run off the speed and presented as the winner but just lacked the finishing class of Mount Nebo. Draws the inside gate and looks the only possible threat to Tumbler.
Long Shot: 13 Danger Close (Bet Now: $41.00) is the very interesting runner here. Former Jason Warren trained sprinter who has been competitive at Stakes level when trained in Victoria. Now with Gary Duncan and this horse had been badly out of form in recent times before being sent north. Perhaps the change in lifestyle and training patterns could spark him into form.
Race Five (14:37) : BRC Membership Plate 1350m:
Back Me: Class to the fore here I think with 9 Candika (Bet Now: $3.00). Very good filly for Steve O’Dea who was five weeks between runs when racing over 1200m here three weeks back and despite those negatives, her class got her home late and she was strong through the line. Will only improve with the run under the belt and the rise to 1350m, plus is thrown in at set weights.
Big Danger: 6 Deep Image (Bet Now: $8.00) is a smart gelding for the Vandyke camp who is putting together a nice little record. Ran second to Winning Rupert in the Gold Edition on debut before winning his maiden here. Spelled, trialled well and resumed here at the midweeks where he was making up ground very late behind Dreams Aplenty, who of course has franked the form. The firmer surface is a big tick for him and he’s right in this provided he isn’t too far back in the run.
Long Shot: 3 Realing (Bet Now: $18.00) is a talented type that is first up here for the Matty Dunn yard. created quite a good impression in just his first prep with four runs, with a couple of wins and performing very well in town. Could well be a QLD Derby prospect, so whatever he does here, he will improve on, but he has quality.
Race Six (15:17) : Blokes Day Out Plate (Class 3) 1350m:
Back Me: 16 Marabel (Bet Now: $4.00) on top. Well bred filly that comes here off a little freshen up for the Vandyke camp, where she karst raced in February at Ipswich, resulting in a dominant win. Trialled up okay at the Sunny Coast and the key to her is dry tracks. That’s where she is most effective. The one to beat.
Big Danger: 7 Alseeya (Bet Now: $7.50) rises sharply in depth but you have to be impressed by what he has done at his past two at the Sunny Coast, where he has led all the way and spanked them. 1600m back to 1350m is the issue, but if he does get on speed favours, he will take some stopping. Key threat for sure.
Long Shot: 10 Ironborn (Bet Now: $8.00) was unwanted in betting when racing at the midweeks at this track/distance a tick over two weeks back on the heavy track but he stuck on really well in defeat I thought behind Dreams Aplenty, who of course franked the form at Toowoomba last Saturday. Lloyd going on is a big tick and I expect him to carve over from the wide gate, sit on speed and proving tough to run down at odds.
Race Seven (15:57) : Sky Thoroughbred Central Handicap 1350m:
Back Me: Landed with 5 Siegfried (Bet Now: $3.90). He is on the quick back up after contesting the Weetwood last Saturday where he had a nice sit just off the speed and tried hard but had to settle for a narrow third to Jumbo Prince and Col ‘N’ Lil, two quality gallopers. That was his first run in four weeks, so he should improve off that and loves racing at Doomben.
Big Danger: 6 Beatniks (Bet Now: $7.50) ran over this track/distance three weeks back where she was back in trip after racing at the mile the start prior but that didn’t seem to bother her as she finished off strongly with purpose to claim a narrow but impressive win. Will only be better off on firmer ground and she ticks alot of boxes here.
Long Shot: 1 Sir Moments (Bet Now: $12.00) toughed it out very strongly to win the Sunny Coast Cup two back. That was in late January so he had a little break and ran in the Goldmarket where he got back and couldn’t come on behind Upstart Pride. This looks a more suitable assignment and if he doesn’t get too far back, he will be a threat.
Race Eight (16:37) : Events @ BRC Handicap (85) 1640m:
Back Me: 3 Dance Of Heroes (Bet Now: $4.60) looks one of the hardest to beat here. He has had a couple of runs now for the Vandyke yard, both over the mile. Firstly, he got back and made up ground behind Beatniks before attempting to lead all the way a fortnight back and just fading late behind Brazen Moss in a hot race. Clearly not as much depth here, and I think if ridden with cover, he’ll take some holding out.
Big Danger: 5 Deconstructed (Bet Now: $8.50) is having his first run for the Gary Newham yard after formerly being with Liam Birchley. He ran over the mile at Toowoomba last Saturday and I think just put it down to a negative ride from Browne. Got the horse a mile back in the run and he really had no hope where he was. If he can get within striking range on the turn, he can bounce back hard.
Long Shot: 9 Red Letter Day (Bet Now: $19.00) should be forgiven for his last two start failures given they have been in strong events and on wet tracks, and I just don’t think he’s as effective on wet ground as he is on dry. Got back and wide last start behind Kalandula, but he is better than that. He can definitely surprise a few here at odds.
BEST BET: Race Four Number 12 Tumbler
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Snitz
VALUE: Race Three Number 8 Pricing Power
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 7, 8, 10, 13, 16
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 14
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9
$50 Investment= 5.55% of the dividend if successful
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