Ascot will back up from their Good Friday meeting with another strong eight race program on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (14:29) : Amelia Park Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Round The Point (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the safe way to go here. Simon Miller trained son of Demerit that debuts here off the back of some quite encouraging efforts at the trials where he has gone about his business quite nicely. The raced brigade look suspect, and he is the pick of the first starters.
Big Danger: 8 Teachers Pet (Bet Now: $34.00) is a filly that makes her raceday debut for the Dan Morton camp. Her trials haven’t been quite as dynamic as those of Reward The Point, but she draws a lovely gate and does get the services of Pike, plus stable should always be respected with their youngsters.
Long Shot: 6 Love Always (Bet Now: $18.00) could be a knockout chance here at odds. This filly resumed at Bunbury a tick over three weeks back and was most unlucky behind Foxy Princess, getting badly held up in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. If she gets normal luck here, I think she can measure up.
Race Two (15:09) : Tabtouch Maiden 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Kimbos Girl (Bet Now: $3.20) on top for me, but only just. Talented type for Simon Miller who is probably one of the better maidens in WA but just can’t quite crack it for a win. She ran at Pinjarra last Sunday where she sat on speed and fought on well but couldn’t quite finish it off when running third. Should be close to peak fitness and this really is D Day for her.
Big Danger: 1 Ronboy (Bet Now: $9.00) has been excellent in two runs back from a break for the Durrant/Miller camp. Last start came at Narrogin where he got a fair way back in the run and finished off his race with purpose to run second. He is third up now, so he should just about be ready fitness wise and draws a lovely gate.
Long Shot: 5 What Dat Song (Bet Now: $51.00) debuted over 1400m at Geraldton around two weeks back and though he was beaten a fair way, I thought he finished off his race quite nicely. Bigger track here will aid his claims, as well as the run under the belt. Definite chance here with natural improvement.
Race Three (15:49) : Lavazza Handicap (66+) 1800m:
Back Me: 4 Royal Supreme (Bet Now: $6.00) on top for me here. This Team Williams trained runner has struggled to get the judge this time in but I think he finds a winnable race here. He ran over 2200m last time out where he was wide most of the way in a slowly run race and couldn’t come on. Back in trip suits and I like that Pike sticks.
Big Danger: 3 A Touch Of Grey (Bet Now: $1.65) is a gelding who is absolutely low flying at the moment for the Durrant/Miller yard. He has won three on the bounce, all coming here and each time he has been dominant. He’s been given a good grounding for this assignment and I think he can handle the step up in grade.
Long Shot: 6 Break The Chain (Bet Now: $81.00) is the very interesting runner here. Two start veteran who is still a maiden but takes on some likely types here. He ran in a 1500m maiden here last Wednesday where he got back in the run and closed off quite nicely late in the piece. He will love the step up in trip and has enormous scope.
Race Four (16:29) : Yellowglen Handicap (Class 3) 1600m:
Back Me: Might be some value here in the shape of 5 Come On Board (Bet Now: $5.50). He’s been a real eye catcher in two runs back from a break, the latest when resulting in a fourth where he got a mile back in the run and closed off quite strongly late. Third up now, draws to sit closer and I think he is worth the gamble.
Big Danger: 7 Maximus Mak (Bet Now: $7.50) should be forgiven for his last start failure at this track/distance given he did a power of work on speed and pulled up with a slow recovery. Start prior he led all the way and was quite dominant, so a repeat effort of that would see him prove hard to beat.
Long Shot: 6 Fremond (Bet Now: $9.00) is a nightmare to follow but no doubting that on his best form, he’s clearly the best horse in the race. Just hasn’t put it together this time in, but I will say this is just about the easiest race he has contested in some time. He can win without my money, but a must for exotics.
Race Five (17:09) : JJ Richards & Sons Handicap (0MW) 1500m:
Back Me: 3 Regal Class (Bet Now: $2.50) on top for me here in a pretty tidy three year old event. This Team Williams trained filly ran over 1400m here at the midweeks a tick over two weeks back and was given a sweet steer by Pike, sitting just off the pace before pouncing at the right time and going right on with it. Up to 1500m is no issue and she rates highly here.
Big Danger: 9 Reveille (Bet Now: $4.40) comes through the same race as Regal Class, running second to that filly. She got back to midfield in the run and looked to travel well under Parnham. But when it came to the crunch, she just couldn’t quite reel in Regal Class. With the extra 100m, she can definitely turn the tables.
Long Shot: 10 Swiftly (Bet Now: $13.00) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but she should be included here as an outside winning chance off the back of a closing fourth at the midweeks over the mile here where she got a long way back in the run but closed off strongly late. Back to 1500m is the query but we know she will be strong late.
Race Six (17:45) : Vale Irene Lugg Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: Going to give 3 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $6.50) another look here. He ran over 1400m here last time out where he got a mile back in the run in a race dominated by those nearer the inside. Did well to get as close as he did. If he can sit more handy in the run, I think he will take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Dendee (Bet Now: $3.40) is ripping mare for the Dan Morton yard. Two from two this time in, the latest coming last Saturday where she was ridden a treat by Parnham just off the speed and once he presented her, it was race over. Takes on the boys now, which is some worry, but I’ll take the gamble.
Long Shot: 8 The Cobbla (Bet Now: $6.00) ran second to Ripper Rio in a similar race here two weeks back and he was enormous in defeat given he was wide throughout and tried hard but he just couldn’t hold out the finishing burst of Ripper Rio. With a more economical trip here, he can bounce back into the winners list for sure.
Race Seven (18:20) : Old Comrade Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: Despite the weight rise I’ll lean towards 1 Man Booker (Bet Now: $2.30). He has carried weight in recent times but has handled it quite well, as we saw last time out in the Grandstand Cup where Noske gave the horse an absolute peach and finished best in a driving go. He rises to 60kg+ now, but he is just in a rich vein of form. Hard to ignore.
Big Danger: 2 Great Shot (Bet Now: $4.80) would be unbeaten this time in had it not been for Man Booker. Brilliant first up winner but has finished runner up to Man Booker at his next three outings, the latest in the Grandstand Cup when a narrow second. He will measure up again and he does get a weight pull.
Long Shot: 5 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $15.00) resumed in the Grandstand Cup and given he is a 2000m+ horse the 1500m was clearly short of his best but I thought he ran quite well and wasn’t far off them. He will improve with the run under the belt and while I doubt he can win, he should be included in exotics.
Race Eight (18:55) : Peacock Bros Handicap (1MW) 2200m:
Back Me: Confident that 3 Proxy (Bet Now: $5.50) can get the job done. He has had three runs back from a break and finally found some form last time out at this track/distance when getting back and running on with real purpose. He should be close to peak fitness now and now that he has found form, he can go right on with it.
Big Danegr: 8 Harpoon (Bet Now: $8.00) can be a hard mare to trust but she put it all together last time out over 2000m at Pinjarra where she was given a lovely run just off the pace and once she presented, it was game over and won with real authority. Now that she has that winning feeling, she can perhaps go on a winning run.
Long Shot: 10 Skip Tracer (Bet Now: $21.00) had been racing so well for a while but just couldn’t quite crack it for a win, until last start at this track/distance when ridden a treat by Troy Turner and finishing best to win narrowly but impressively. He doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but he’s in ripping form and can’t be ignored.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Man Booker
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 3 Regal Class
VALUE: Race Four Number 5 Come On Board
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 9
Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10
$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful
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