15/10/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne, Cranbourne Cup day

One of the biggest days on the provincial calendar in Victoria is Cranbourne Cup Day and it comes around this Sunday with a bumper ten race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

7 Lady Of Flanders (Bet Now: $6.00) gets the nod for me in the opener on Cup Day. This girl for Nigel Blackiston raced three times during the Winter to kick off her career and looked quite good each time she stepped out, ending the prep with a maiden win at Sale. Loved her recent Flemington jump out and she appears to have come back really well.

3 Lakhoni (Bet Now: $1.90) led all the way to score a top debut win at Bendigo (three subsequent winners) before going to Caulfield where it was just an utter nightmare if you were on. Got back, held up, nearly fell…could make a case he should have won. If he has overcome that, he’ll take a power of beating here.

2 Irish Vega (Bet Now: $8.50) wasn’t really fancied when debuting in a 1300m maiden at Bendigo and despite taking a while to wind up, his last 150m was very good when flashing late to nab the handy Free Fly Too right on the peg. Harder here with more depth, but can only improve off that and is a definite contender.

Giving 9 Captain Jimmy (Bet Now: $3.50) another look here. Busuttin/Young colt who had good market support prior to debuting over 1300m at Bendigo where he ran along in front under Linda Meech and gave a good until the 150m when gassed and was gathered in late to run fifth to Irish Vega. Should improve with the run under the belt, looks the leader and on his home track now.

5 Capdelago (Bet Now: $9.50) was unwanted in betting when resuming in a 1300m maiden here but you had to like the way he closed off late in the piece to run fourth to Naantali in a maiden which has already produced two subsequent winners. That looks strong form for this, so he has to go in the numbers.

2 River Reward (Bet Now: $8.50) is the interesting runner. Glenn Cross trained five year old that is first up here since debuting at Pakenham back in March where had three wide cover out the back and launched late to just miss out on the win when third to Tecza. That form looks okay, but what I will say is that his recent jump out here was awful. Callow booked a lead perhaps.

9 Suplex City (Bet Now: $2.20) gets the nod for me here. Busutiin/Young trained colt who debuted with a strong second at Swan Hill before racing over 1400m at Flemington at the midweeks where he was wide all the way and tired late behind Octabello. This looks more his go, draws much better and should take some holding out.

12 Trent (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Ocean Park first up for the Henry Dwyer camp. This gelding debuted back in May at Donald where he sat back and couldn’t really come on behind She’s Our Gift. Has since been gelded and I haven’t minded the way he has jumped out in readiness for his return.

8 Mulligan Falls (Bet Now: $10.00) was heavily backed on debut in a similar class race to this and ran well enough. There were plenty of excuses for him including a heavy track on the day so back on top of the ground i think he is a horse you must include in what looks a relatively weak race.

Looks a race in two between 1/7 and I’ll lean the way of 7 Rioli (Bet Now: $2.60). Debuted with an impressive win at Sale before heading to Morphettville where he closed off hard late to run second to the above average Kid Flash. That form should hold up nicely here. Just needs to overcome the sticky gate.

1 Saddle The Sun (Bet Now: $2.10) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained son of Helmet who debuted over 1200m at Ballarat and to be fair, I’m not sure he beat much, even though Hot Hussler came out and won last weekend, he put the field away quite well and there was a decent turn of foot there. Looks to map beautifully and Regan retains.

9 Patient (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented mare that is first up for the in form Richard Laming team. This girl hasn’t raced since mid June at Sale where she ran along in front and just felt the pinch late when midfield behind Elegant Queen. Jump outs have been encouraging and she does sprint well fresh.

He’s a bludger, but gee 1 Battlecamp (Bet Now: $2.40) finds a very winnable race here. He was three weeks between runs when racing over 1400m at Caulfield a fortnight back and I liked the way he closed off late when fifth to the talented SA galloper Steel Frost. This is the easiest race he has contested in some time, Williams steers…surely he gets away with this.

6 Big Phil (Bet Now: $5.50) landed some good bets when bolting up over 1400m at Geelong two back before racing over 1500m at Mornington a tick over two weeks ago and gee it was a tough watch if you were on. Was bolting between runners but never really clear and went to the line under a hold behind Gold Fields. Better luck here and he can go close for sure.

8 Rokda Kasba (Bet Now: $14.00) had his first run for the Hayes/Dabernig team over 1400m on Benalla Cup day a tick over a fortnight back and he just found the trip too short but he did make up nice ground late in the piece when fifth to stablemate Red Is The Rose. Think he wants 2000m+, but he does have a touch of quality about him.

Worried that she wants further but I’ll go with 11 Banish (Bet Now: $4.20) here. This girl hasn’t raced for a tick over three weeks since racing over 1400m at Caulfield where she sat back and closed off okay late in the piece behind Leather’n’lace. Was down to run in the Edward Manifold last week but stable pulled the pin and she runs here instead.

10 Street Impact (Bet Now: $5.00) resumed over 1200m at Mornington a tick over two weeks back for the Smerdon camp where she sat up near the speed and showed a nice turn of foot when asked, and seemingly looked home, but was bloused late by Mrs Gardenia. Should come right on from that, maps well and is one of the hardest to beat.

4 Lady Skills (Bet Now: $4.80) is a mare in really good form at the moment for Matt Laurie. She ran over 1500m at Mornington a tick over a fortnight ago where she sat back in the run and had to make a long, searching run but she still found the line with purpose late behind Quilate. Back to 1400m is ideal and senior jock takes over.

5 Rock ‘N’ Gold (Bet Now: $2.50) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained sprinter who has been excellent in two runs back from a spell. He last ran in a 55 second what on Moir night at the Valley and rocketed home from the back to run second to the speedster Super Too. Should get good speed once again and up to 1000m is a big tick.

3 Smart Dart (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented sprinter who is first up for the Alderson team. This bloke had a really good Summer/Autumn prep where he ran so well numerous times, including blacktype events. Looked to trial up well here recently behind Basset and he is a good fresh performer, plus he draws ideally.

1 Gun Case (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Darren Weir trained sprinter who is in really good form at the moment. He hasn’t raced since Balaklava Cup Day when leading all the way to win the feature sprint there over the 1000m. Senior jock takes over now and should ping over from the gate and take some beating.

I think only bad luck will beat 2 Folkswood (Bet Now: $4.0) here. Charlie Appleby trained stayer on the Cups path who makes his Australian debut. From all reports he has been flying since arriving at Werribee and really, on his UK form, he should be putting this field away if he is to be a Cups contender.

5 Lizzie L’amour (Bet Now: $4.40) does look the key and perhaps only threat. Clear excuses first up in the Dato before going to the Stocks…and gee whiz, if you were on, it was just an utter nightmare. Nearly should have won. With clear running here, she should go close, but does need to improve to beat Folkswood IMHO.

4 Guardini (Bet Now: $16.00) ran a massive race two starts ago and if he can run up to that effort here he will be winning. Disappointed at his last start but he wasn’t beaten far despite finishing at the back of the field. The barrier is a concern but if he can get some luck he looks the knock out hope in the race.

1 Zilbiyr (Bet Now: $4.80) looks the safe option here. This bloke has been excellent this time in for the Robert Kingston team. Won impressively two back at Mornington before racing over the mile here where he got back in the run and closed off well against the bias behind Strong Hand, who ran well in the Bairnsdale Cup last week, so that form reads well.

14 Highgate Hill (Bet Now: $4.00) had been racing really without winning but that all changed last time out at this trip at Moe. He was given such a sweet ride by Jamie Mott, who had the horse perked off a hot pace before presenting him on the turn and putting them away comfortably. Looks primed to run well on his home track, and if he can overcome the draw, he’s right in the game.

16 The Sledgehammer (Bet Now: $9.00) will love the rise to 2000m. Wasn’t suited at all last time out at Geelong over 1700m given the tempo was a crawl and it was a day/track where those on speed were advantaged. Still does hold a nomination for the Derby, so if he is to head that way, you’d expect him to run well here, and he does find Craig Williams.

10 Night’s Watch (Bet Now: $4.20) is an OTI horse for Darren Weir who kicked off his Australian career with a couple of sharp wins before going to the Morphettville mile where he was backed off the map but he let the punters down badly with a below par effort behind Von Costa Glass. Been freshened up and won a trial nicely recently at Echuca. On his best form, he’s the one to beat.

12 Red Is The Rose (Bet Now: $3.10) is a talented mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team who got a well deserved win on the board when racing over 1400m at Benalla on their Cup day last time out. She was ridden a treat on speed by Cory Parish and gave a really good kick early in the straight when asked for the big effort. Maps well once again and Parish remains on.

4 Fox Hall (Bet Now: $5.00) on top for me in the get out. This Tony McEvoy trained four year old resumed four weeks back at Morphettville where he had the nice throughout and looked to travel well but he was just simply no match for them late in the piece when second to Steel Frost, who franked that form by winning at Caulfield. That reads well for this.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Folkswood

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Battlecamp

VALUE: Race One Number 7 Lady Of Flanders

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5

Leg Two: 2, 5

Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 14, 15

Leg Four: 4, 7, 10, 11, 12

$50 Investment= 33.33% of the dividend if successful

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