Racing returns to Ascot this Saturday for a strong eight event program, where the feature event is the Northerly Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (16:05) : Silks Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 3 Classy Marcy (Bet Now: $2.60) is a Universal Ruler filly on debut and she looks a ready made youngster based on a sharp trial win at Lark Hill and she did it impressively. Pike steering also is a really good lead.
Big Danger: 8 Seannie (Bet Now: $4.00) is a filly debuting for the astute Simon Miller stable. She comes here off the back of a solid trial placing and she seemed to things pretty nicely. Only has to overcome the tricky draw to be a threat.
Roughie: 10 Time And Truth (Bet Now: $12.00) debuts here for the Paul Jordan yard who comes here off the back of just one trial, which came on Monday at Belmont over 400m where she placed. I think those 400m trials are a waste of time to be honest, but the stable are pretty good with youngsters.
Race Two (16:54) : Crown Towers Perth Trophy (72+) 1500m:
Back Me: 2 Star Exhibit (Bet Now: $2.00) is a talented stayer that could well be a Perth Cup contender after showing really good promise when last in work. He has shown a bit of zip in a couple of barrier trials and he does have a touch of class and quality on his side.
Big Danger: 5 Pounamu (Bet Now: $2.70) has been given a four week freshen up since racing over the mile at Belmont where he ran a game third to a potential star in Chocolate Holic. The freshen up should do him the world of good and he is a massive chance.
Roughie: 3 Abbasso (Bet Now: $17.00) is the very interesting runner here. Former Chris Waller trained galloper that is now with Jim Taylor and he could run a very cheeky race fresh off the back of a couple of trials behind quality gallopers Lite’n In My Veins and Heart Starter. Watch the market.
Race Three (17:34) : Hosemasters Plate 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Minus Looks (Bet Now: $2.40) ran over 1200m at Belmont where he had a suck run behind the speed and chased really hard when clear to get the win in the last couple of strides. He will be better suited here on the bigger track and looks very hard to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Samovare (Bet Now: $4.00) hasn’t raced for nearly seven weeks since producing a brilliant finishing burst to get the job done over 1200m at Belmont. I think the stable believe she is Carnival quality, and Pike is on, which you have to respect.
Roughie: 5 Variation (Bet Now: $7.50) won well first up at Northam before running at the midweeks at Belmont a couple of weeks ago where he sat off speed and finished off well late when second to Swift Platinum. Third up now and he should get a sweet trip from the gate.
Race Four (18:09) : Crown Sports Bar Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Lolong (Bet Now: $8.00) resumed in a maiden at Northam last Wednesday and got a fair way back in the run before getting clear and really attacking the line to win impressively. I’m confident he can measure up to this level given he did run in the WA Derby.
Big Danger: 2 Fo’ Shizzle (Bet Now: $5.00) has been given a five week break since racing over the mile where he ran a close up third to All Too Much. The runner up was Proxy and that pair have since run well, so the form reads well for a race like this.
Roughie: 10 Peggy Sue (Bet Now: $7.50) creates some interest here. Handy mare that resumes after a pretty solid opening prep in the Summer, highlighted by a brilliant win over this track/distance. Couple of trials leading in have been alright, so whatever she does here she will improve, but the quality is there.
Race Five (18:45) : Myer Fashions On The Field Handicap (66+) 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Proxy (Bet Now: $6.50) looks the way to go here. He ran over 2200m at Belmont two weeks ago and ran okay but he just didn’t quite stay the trip out when running fourth. That hard run should see him cherry ripe for this 1800m assignment and he shapes up as one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: 5 Bollywood Blitz (Bet Now: $3.20) ran over the mile during the Kalgoorlie Carnival where he was near a solid tempo and shot clear at the top of the straight but the race was really set up for the backmarkers, so his effort in defeat was very good. Pike jumps back on and he can take some holding out.
Roughie: 11 Night Prowler (Bet Now: $61.00) ran on Sunday at Northam over the mile where he sat worse than midfield in the run and chased hard down the entire straight behind in form galloper Magic Rocket. He has a really good record on his home track and is on the minimum. Knockout chance at odds.
Race Six (19:20) : Singin In The Rain Handicap (1MW) 1000m:
Back Me: 8 Invincible Warrior (Bet Now: $8.00) debuted in a 1000m maiden at Belmont a couple of of weeks ago and led throughout to draw clear and win quite impressively. This is a tough assignment but he draws to get a good run near the tempo and there is a bit to like about him.
Big Danger: 5 Viking Forrest (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented four year old resuming for the Poletti stable. He raced twice during the Winter, and ran well behind a couple of quality animals. Trial win at Lark Hill was very good and just needs luck from the gate to be a threat.
Roughie: 1 Brackets (Bet Now: $6.50) should be forgiven for his failure two weeks back at Belmont where he was four wide no cover for the trip and he rightfully dropped out. Again draws poorly but the big key is that Pike rides. Could be a sharp improver.
Race Seven (20:00) : Northerly Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Keen to see 4 Disposition (Bet Now: $3.80) back in WA. He went to Team Freedman for the Melbourne Spring and he performed pretty well in some high quality races. His trials leading in have been sharp and prior to leaving, he was one of WA’s best gallopers.
Big Danger: 5 Lite’n In My Veins (Bet Now: $12.00) is a quality galloper that has race fitness on his side. He ran in the Birthday Stakes a fortnight back and came with a really well timed to run get the job done impressively. WFA probably isn’t his go but he has class and upside still.
Roughie: 1 Pornichet (Bet Now: $26.00) is probably the most interesting runner across Australia this weekend. Former Gai Waterhouse runner that ran fourth to Winx in the Cox Plate last year so that tells you how classy he is. He looked to trial well at Lark Hill and I’ll be shocked if there isn’t a market push.
Race Eight (20:35) : Mumm Champagne Handicap (78+) 1100m:
Back Me: 5 Cool Passion (Bet Now: $4.80) has been given a four week let up since racing over the 1000m at Belmont where he was wide no cover for the trip yet cruised to the front soon after straightening but was bloused late by Volkhoff, who sat back and had the last say. Draws to get cover here I suspect and Harvey on can only be a positive.
Roughie: 8 Silverstream (Bet Now: $4.20) is a high class mare that resumes for the Williams stable. She performed well during the Carnival last season in some quality races, most at Stakes level. She is unbeaten fresh and her trial win a fortnight ago was very good.
Big Danger: 10 Bourne Supremacy (Bet Now: $9.00) is the massive knockout chance I think. He has a lethal finish on him when cuddled and saved for the straight. He resumes here and does perform well fresh. He draws to get a nice sit off a brutal tempo, and only needs to get clear to look the winner I suspect.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Proxy
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Disposition
VALUE: Race Six Number 8 Invincible Warrior
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 4, 8, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Four: 5, 8, 9, 10, 13
$50 Investment= 8.00% of the dividend if successful
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