Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday for Winter Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:30) ATC Handicap 1100m
I’m hoping the trials are a true indication of how well 7 Intrepidacious (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) has returned. If it is, she’s the winner. He’s looked outstanding in a couple of trials leading into her return, firstly at Hawkesbury before trialling at Randwick a couple of Fridays ago and loved the way she closed off. She’s got the Amercement/Tenley form from the Autumn which clearly reads well for this kind of race.
5 Rotator (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) is a deserving favourite but odds on does look a tad skinny. In saying that, does have the right form next to her name after resuming at this track/distance two weeks ago and trying but just failing to beat Splintex, with Exceedance a lip away in third. Should improve with the run under the belt and is another that will be suited with the speed in front.
4 Minted (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) looks a handy enough juvenile for the WaterBott team who just found the 1000m a bit sharp on debut at Kembla but was sound late before going to Warwick Farm over 1200m when ridden aggressively by Tim Clark and he led all the way for a strong win. Back to 1100m a little concern, but should hold a decent spot from the inside gate and has hard fitness under the belt.
Race 2. (12:05) TAB Highway Plate (Class 3) 1500m
Have to be with the Terry Evans trained 15 Onemore Sapphire (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS). This bloke was good despite carrying condition first up on his home track at Tuncurry before going to a Highway over 1400m here two weeks back and yep, I was on him, but I think most would agree that with a clear run, he just about wins, instead running an unlucky fourth. Unfortunately won’t get $26+ for him like last start, but still, hard to beat.
14 Galapagos (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) is very likeable here for Cody Morgan and that’s reflected in the market where he is near odds on. Has had three runs this time in and has been strong at each outing, the latest at Randwick three weeks ago when third to Kolding and Quackerjack, both of which won last Saturday, so when you’re talking proper metro form leading into a Highway, easy to why he is and will be fancied.
Have always had time for 2 Napoli (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) so keen to see what he does here. Tash Burleigh trains this gelding, who was well supported when racing on his home track at Goulburn last time when back in the run before being presented wider on the turn and finishing off hard to nail his rivals near the peg. Up to 1500m no issue and though still a bit wayward, he’s talented.
Race 3. (12:40) Events By ATC Handicap (94) 1300m
Now he has got the confidence boosting win on the board, 4 Asterius (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) can go right on with it. Admittedly was helped by a very solid tempo in front and a peach from Jason Collett, but he still had to get the job done and he got it done emphatically. Now the task will be to continue that vein of form as the prep gets deeper. If he does, he’ll be terribly hard to beat.
8 Fragonard (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings trained mare who had a decent spell prior to resuming on the Kenso track at Randwick where she was off the pace and tried hard all the way despite never really being a winning threat behind impressive winner Passage Of Time. Was down to run a couple of Saturdays back but instead has been freshened up, so keen to see what she does.
The best version of 7 Slow Burn (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is certainly good enough to be competitive here. Les Bridge trains this talented mare, who hasn’t raced since the Breeders Classic in the Autumn when seemingly awful behind Champagne Cuddles, but had a poor post race recovery and I’m not sure she was entirely happy on the shifty surface. Been given a good break and her two trials leading in have been encouraging. Stable normally has them soft in condition fresh, but she’s looked pretty good. Keen to see where she goes.
Race 4. (13:15) #theraces Handicap (78) 1200m
6 Ljungberg (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) on top. Ron Quinton trains this three year old, who resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago where Clipperton got him into the 1/1 and on the turn, it looked no betting given he appeared to be bolting but his condition just ran out late when fourth to Ljungberg. He should take really good improvement from that and prove hard to hold out.
If 3 Danawi (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is anywhere near right, gee he’ll take some beating here. Talented three year old for Tim Martin who has had a mixed season. Started it in impressive fashion, winning the Ming Dynasty before just being outclassed in the Golden Rose. Given a good break and resumed in the Inglis Sprint where he didn’t seem 100% behind Fiesta. Been given another good spell and has trialled up really well in readiness for his return.
10 Snow Valley (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) has been really impressive in two runs back from a spell for Matty Dunn. Closed off nicely first up in the Denise’s Joy during the Scone Carnival before going to the Helen Coughlan where she was a mile out of her ground but loved the way she attacked the line behind Multaja. Third up now, she should be ready, and hopefully can sit closer from the draw.
Race 5. (13:50) Tab.com.au Handicap (88) 1800m
Big fan of 8 Mister Belvedere (Bet Now: $6.00) and interested to see how he goes. Had trialled up really well prior to making his Australian debut under the lights at Cranbourne when back in run in a race where they didn’t go hard, but loved the way he picked up late and was most impressive. Can only see improvement from that and has to be respected against this lot.
A bit of rain would really help the Kris Lees trained 3 Articus (Bet Now: $21.00). I reckon he’s flying. Outstanding first up run on the Kenso track behind Renewal before going to the Lord Mayors Cup where the track was firm, he was back and had to come wide against the bias so his run was much better than what it looks to the eye behind Order Again. Think he’s really well placed here to run well. Just needs rain.
The step up in trip will really suit the Freedman galloper 6 Roman Son (Bet Now: $34.00). Resumed over the mile in the Scone Cup and was okay behind Special Missile before stepping back to 1500m when back and held up at times, but was good late behind Asterius. Looking like the step up to 1800m will be really beneficial to this galloper and an improved showing certainly wouldn’t shock.
Race 6. (14:25) Winter Cup 2400m
Happy to butter up on 7 High Bridge (Bet Now: $3.70). Was keen on him at odds in the McKell Cup two weeks ago and it’s hard to say he should have won given the winner was first up, but I think had McDougall had the ride again, he would do a couple of things differently. He’s now finding some positive form and as we saw in the Winter/Spring, once he finds form, he holds it.
What to do with 4 Hush Writer (Bet Now: $2.30)? 2400m first up in the McKell Cup, the majority of punters dismissed him given he was a loose cannon in the Spring, but was gelded, trialled well enough and under Innes Jr, he was just too good for his rivals. If he repeats the dose, with upside to come, he wins again. Just depends if he can repeat the dose. Have to watch rather than back at this stage.
The weather forecast isn’t too kind for 2 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $21.00) but I reckon Joe Pride has the old boy going well enough. He was never really likely in the McKell Cup but stuck on and was good late in the piece behind Hush Writer. If he struck a wet track like it was last Saturday, he’d go close to winning this, but the track will be on the dry side, which is against him, but is getting fitter so one for multiples.
Race 7. (15:05) TAB Rewards Handicap (78) 1500m
2 Nicci’s Gold (Bet Now: $9.00) looks really hard to beat. Gary Portelli trains this mare, who does have a very good second up record and the first up run indicated a second up win certainly isn’t out of the equation. Loved the way she found the line late from well off the speed to run fifth to Reelem In Ruby. Soft gate and claim for Sam Clenton, the mare does look well placed.
4 Pandemonium (Bet Now: $8.50) seems to be enjoying life under the care of Paul Messara. Has had two runs for the stable, starting off on the Kenso track when an eye catching fifth behind She’s Furline before being freshened up and going to Canterbury where she was taken to the front by Robbie Dolan and the mare just dominated proceedings. Harder here, but has upside and 1500m no issue.
If this was Randwick at the mile, moral, but even Rosehill 1500m, still more than happy to include 12 Zavance (Bet Now: $15.00). The Snowden camp has her flying this time. Good late first up in an unsuitable race at Canterbury before racing over 1400m here a fortnight back and loved the way she found the line late when fourth to stablemate Reelem In Ruby. Third up, she should be ready fitness wise.
Race 8. (15:45) Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (88) 1100m
Great to see 12 Sylvia’s Mother (Bet Now: $1.90) back at the races and really keen to see how she returns. This filly came a long way in a short space of time during the Summer, winning her first three runs in such impressive fashion before going to the Light Fingers where she ran a close up fifth to Nakeeta Jane. Trialled up brilliantly last week here and though 1100m first up is not the A1 set up for her, she’s got class.
If he drew a decent barrier, I’d almost be tempted to put 10 Tony Nicconi (Bet Now: $6.00) on top. I reckon the Hayes/Dabernig team has him flying. Was tested as a Stakes horse earlier in his career but as a colt, couldn’t quite measure up. Now gelded and has had two trials in readiness for his return. Drying track will really help his cause. Just needs to navigate the tricky barrier.
Have to have something on 14 Drachenfels (Bet Now: $18.00). Was all over him when he resumed over 1100m here two weeks ago but had absolutely no luck in the straight where he was full of running and should have finished much closer behind Wagner. Remaining at 1100m is a little query, but does get weight relief and if you were on first up, have to be on once again.
Race 9. (16:25) Everest Carnival On Sale Handicap (78) 1300m
Good little test for 2 Kapajack (Bet Now: $1.80) but confident he can get the job done. Team Hawkes trains this talented three year old, who was a few weeks between runs when racing over this track/distance two weeks ago, sitting back, wide with cover, before Tommy got going on him on the turn and in a few strides was there to ready to pounce. Put them away quickly and was impressive. Not much harder here, if anything a tad weaker, and have to like the way he’s going about it.
13 Nicochet (Bet Now: $5.00) ran second to Kapajack in the race mentioned above and I thought he was quite good in defeat. He was first up in that race and was a little held up at times, but was out in time to win. Winner was too good, but he stuck to the task well. Likely follows Kapajack from the draw and can get closer to him with more upside. Can he win though? With luck, he can.
No surprise to see some specking for 11 Chapelco (Bet Now: $35.00). This Joe Pride trained galloper can be really hit and miss for the most part, but he does tend to do his best when leading and being left alone, and that’s how the map reads here, and with the blinkers going back on, I can see him doing his own thing in front and giving the fav something to chase.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Asterius
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 2 Kapajack
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 15 Onemore Sapphire
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 7
Leg Two: 2, 4, 9, 10, 12
Leg Three: 10, 12, 14, 17
Leg Four: 2
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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