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The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Hyperion Stakes Day, with the 1600m feature highlighted by the appearance of star mare Galaxy Star. The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (14:33) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Plate 1000m

Back Me

Taking a chance on 4 No Apology (Bet Now: $8.50), resuming for Simon Miller. Debuted at Ascot over 1000m on Feb 2 and was disappointing but that field looked to have good depth to it, with Amarillo Rose going on to be competitive in some quality races. This bloke has had two trials for his return, and the second trial did impressive, notably with the blinkers going on. Looked to travel much better, so I’ll go his way.

Danger

1 Miss Tycoon (Bet Now: $2.60) is a Neville Parnham trained filly who is going about her business in the right way. Two weeks between runs since scoring a decent on speed win at this track/distance, beating up a field which looked to have a bit of depth to it. Tricky draw once again, but has early speed and if given a dig in the ribs, I think she can get over rather comfortably.

Long Shot

3 Carabinier (Bet Now: $7.00) is an interesting runner. Paul Jordan trains this animal, who ran over 1000m here last Wednesday when back and making up minor headway late behind Power And Passion. Blinkers are off, Visors are on and interesting that he’s been gelded straight away. Was hard in the market that race so an improved showing with those gear changes is expected.

Race 2. (15:13) Pink Ladies Luncheon July 6 Handicap 1000m

Back Me

This race will be a good guide to as how talented 12 Missing Pro (Bet Now: $21.00) is. You don’t know how good a horse is until they are beaten. 3/3 to start her career and it was hard to be impressed by her last start romp at York over 1100m, bolting in and smashing the clock relative to the day. Back to 1000m no issue, gets weight relief and though it’s her hardest test to date, she’s got to be respected.

Danger

8 Catherine Wheel (Bet Now: $8.00) is a talented filly for Karen Kersley who won her first two starts in impressive fashion before bumping into Dance Music next time out. Freshened up and ran here a few weeks ago where I thought she had her chance when third to Daishio. Was a little while between runs there so perhaps condition gave out. Hard to beat if leading and left alone, which does seem unlikely.

Long Shot

Looking for something to finish off hard behind the good speed, 3 Nocelle (Bet Now: $13.00) looks the pony. Resumed at this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back where she sat well off the speed and in the end gave away too much head start, but loved the way she found the line late behind Rebel Yell, just missing out on the win. Hard to hold out if she takes advantage of the gate.

Race 3. (15:53) Mrs Mac's Handicap (76+) 200m

Back Me

10 Salon Du Cheval (Bet Now: $3.10) for me. This gelding was well backed when racing over 2200m here two weeks ago but really had no hope of winning given they walked in front but he did make ground late behind Come Play With Me. I think back to 2000m will see a more genuine tempo in front for him, and perhaps he can sit a pair or two closer in the run this time around.

Danger

1 Come Play With Me (Bet Now: $1.80) is an absolute beauty for the Adam Durrant stable. Has been up a fair while but continues to race really well, winning his past two, the latest over 2200m here a fortnight ago where he was far too good despite the slow, lumping the 60kg to win easily. Has to lump an extra 2kg now and draws gate one, so hopefully Kirby can get him clear air before the turn to build the revs like last time.

Long Shot

7 Diamond Tonique (Bet Now: $23.00) is looking for further, which he gets here. Was very good two back over the mile at Ascot before racing at the mile here where he was there to win but just lacked the turn of foot. Now wants 2000m, which he gets, and is hard fit. Clearly has eyes on defending his Broome Cup title, but even here, he’s a knockout chance at odds.

Race 4. (16:28) Events @ Ascot Handicap (1MW) 1600m

Back Me

Really keen to see 5 Deimos (Bet Now: $5.50) at Saturday grade. Anne King trains this gelding, who had trialled up enormous at Lark Hill prior to resuming over 1400m here last Wednesday when wide no cover throughout but still cruised to the front and though there to be beaten after doing work, he found plenty late and was much too good for his rivals. Confident he can measure up.

Danger

2 Stoicism (Bet Now: $5.00) has returned in really good order for the Martin Allan stable. Loved the way he dug in after doing work to get the win two back at Ascot before racing over this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back when unlucky and you could easily make a case he should have won when second to Flying Roar. Hard to ignore the way he’s going this prep.

Long Shot

4 Royal Strata (Bet Now: $13.00) is a mare that is racing in good form at the moment for the Justin Warwick stable. Lovely use of the gate from Lucy Warwick last start at this over the mile at Ascot, holding the box seat before getting the split in the straight and finding the line best to win. Creeping up in depth now, but she’s racing well and rarely runs a bad race. Hard to beat here.

Race 5. (17:05) Hyperion Stakes 1600m

Back Me

5 Galaxy Star (Bet Now: $1.26) is indeed a star and she had to be a star to win the Belmont Sprint two weeks ago. Had no right to win given they crawled in front and she was left flat footed when the sprint went on but her finale was just brilliant and surged hard under Pike to get the win, clocking sub 34 for her final 600m and a final 200m split of 11.16. She’ll eat up further, getting fitter, should be winning again.

Danger

1 Great Shot (Bet Now: $5.00) is an absolute beauty for the Rhys Radford team. The 2017 Railway winner looked home when he hit the front but couldn’t quite hold on and had to settle for second to Galaxy Star. He too will be suited up to the mile but not as much as Galaxy Star and likely is running for minor money again, but will land on speed and give his all, like he usually does.

Long Shot

2 Gatting (Bet Now: $7.50) will be a big tick up to the mile after resuming in the Belmont Sprint. He was there to threaten on the turn and loomed to win the race, but his condition just gave out the final furlong when running fifth to Galaxy Star. Did place behind Galaxy Star in the Railway so we know he can match it somewhat with the mare and an improved showing is on the cards.

Race 6. (17:40) Ilario Spangolo 50th Birthday Handicap (64+) 1400m

Back Me

Hasn’t Peter Fernie done an outstanding job with 9 Moschard (Bet Now: $3.80). This horse is going for six on the bounce, his third for the prep. Comes through the Provincial Series, winning a Heat at Kalgoorlie before a 12/10 steer from Pike got him home in the Final, beating an in form Wanna Be Good. Does tend to save his best for 1400m and has run well on wet ground before so he ticks plenty of boxes.

Danger

5 Lordhelpmerun (Bet Now: $2.30) is potentially on trial for the Belmont Guineas coming up so he’d need to be winning this to warrant a start in that sort of race. Was very poor first up at Ascot behind Special Reward before going to the 1200m here a fortnight ago where he was off the pace and was much better in defeat behind Flirtini. Up to 1400m third up looks ideal and is bred to handle a wet track.

Long Shot

12 Resistance (Bet Now: $17.00) is flying for Fred Kersley but she just has this horrendous racing pattern of flopping out the back and giving away too much head start, which is what she did here two weeks ago and produced some great late splits behind Military Ruler. Has run well on wet ground before and overall, this isn’t the strongest race going around. If she can sit closer, hard to beat.

Race 7. (18:10) Crown Perth Handicap (1MW) 1200m

Back Me

8 Shapita (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Simon Miller trained filly who has returned in pretty good order. Close up fourth behind Don’s Legacy at Ascot before racing over 1200m here where Azzopardi gave her a peach ride in front, controlling things to suit herself, and she was never going to get rolled. Harder here, but has upside left and should get on speed without doing a great deal of work.

Danger

15 City Circle (Bet Now: $4.50) is a very consistent filly for the Neville Parnham stable who is two weeks between runs since racing over 1200m here where she tried hard under Chris Parnham but Flirtini just had too much class on the line and was too sharp for this girl, who was good in defeat. Like her here off a good speed, and with a cold steer, she’ll be dangerous.

Long Shot

4 Invisible Pro (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of Proart for Simon Miller that resumes. This gelding hasn’t raced since Australia Day at Ascot when unlucky and arguably should have finished a touch closer behind Special Delivery. Not the greatest of fresh records, but did look sharp in a recent Lark Hill trial win and has placed in both runs at Belmont behind some quality types.

Race 8. (18:40) Free Entry To Belmont Handicap (70+) 1200m

Back Me

Third up at 1200m, sitting off a good speed, going the way of 8 Stageman (Bet Now: $4.20), who has let the punters down in both runs back from a break but market expectations aside, his runs have been decent, the latest seeing him a close up third to Don’t Fuss. The gear has been taken off, he should sit off a good tempo and hopefully can get clear air to finish his race off.

Danger

12 Fine Scent (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Simon Miller trained mare who is third up here, so she should just about be ready fitness wise. Wide no cover first up in a total forgive behind Free Trade before racing over this track/distance two weeks ago when near the speed and chased hard, but found State Attorney too good on the day. She should be hard fit now and strikes a winnable race.

Long Shot

Really interesting runner is 1 Nikitas (Bet Now: $7.00), who has had a few homes during his career but is now with Team Williams. His form from NSW/Vic would see him prove terribly hard to beat here, but been a little while since he has showed his best. In saying that, his trials leading in have been encouraging so I think he’s a huge yard/market watch. If the money is there, he’s hard to beat.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Deimos

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Salon Du Cheval

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 4 No Apology

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 5

Leg Two: 5, 9, 12, 13

Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 8, 15

Leg Four: 1, 8, 12, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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