One of the lead ups towards the Adelaide Cup highlights racing at Morphettville this Saturday, with the Birthday Cup (2043m) attracting a quality field. The weather is fine, and the track is good (4) .
Race 1. (12:41) AAMI 2YO Plate 1100M
In the corner of 1 Bribery (Bet Now: $1.50) for the McEvoy camp. This girl hasn’t raced since the Gold Pearl at the Gold Coast in order to get into the Magic Millions but she looked drunk around the track before balancing up and finishing off strongly. Been kept on ice since and returns home, where she was impressive when winning on debut.
3 Aqaareb (Bet Now: $3.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig filly that is on debut. She’s had two Flemington jumpouts in readiness for start one, the latest coming last Friday in testing conditions. Thought her effort was good, sitting on speed and not really pushed at for an effort in a decent piece of work. If the fav is off her game, this is the one to beat.
2 My Ruby (Bet Now: $7.50) is an interesting runner. The Francis/Kent stable trains this filly, which was kept pretty safe in betting when debuting in a 2YO race at Port Lincoln where she was run off her legs early but once she balanced up, gee she attacked the line and was impressive in getting the job done. Runner up has won since and this girl had trialled well prior.
Race 2. (13:15) Adelaide Cup Day Hcp 1200M
5 Seemingly Discreet (Bet Now: $2.70) looks back on track for Phillip Stokes after a couple of questionable runs to start the prep, not really hitting the line with any purpose, but that all changed three weeks ago at Gawler in a maiden with a commanding performance and running solid time relative to the meeting. Think off that, 1200m at this level should be fine.
3 Sowpods (Bet Now: $23.00) is a son of Wordsmith for the Gordon Richards camp that is resuming, potentially on a SA Derby path perhaps. He got out to 1800m during the Spring in the Hill Smith where he was on speed and fought on super but couldn’t quite finish it off. Been given a good break and did trial well at Gawler. Was down to resume over 1400m last week but was scratched, so my assumption is he’s forward enough to run well.
7 Justedee (Bet Now: $10.00) is still a maiden but he’s done a good job in two career outings, the latest coming here two weeks ago when taking on a good bunch of three year olds and worked home pretty well in defeat behind Lunar Light, who is flying at the moment. Firmer footing should help his cause…knock is does he want further?
Race 3. (13:51) Terry Howe Printing Hcp 1600m
The one on the up here is 10 Jive Baby (Bet Now: $5.00) and I think she can make it two on the bounce. Ran in a 1400m maiden at Murray Bridge last Wednesday where she trucked up behind the speed and looked to be bolting before angling clear and finished best to win. Not much depth here and should appreciate the rise to 1600m.
The bets at odds were almost landed with 4 Bwuva (Bet Now: $4.00) two weeks ago. He got conditions to suit and was given an absolute peach of a front running steer from Dom Tourneur. Just didn’t have the turn of foot to match it with Ethical Solution, but stuck on very well in defeat. Nearly a year between wins, but he’s racing honestly.
Think firmer footing will help the cause of the Sue Nolan trained 7 Getouttheway (Bet Now: $14.00). Ran over this track/distance in a much harder race two weeks ago and was gone on the turn, struggling in the conditions behind Ethical Solution. Much better suited on firmer footing and off his run start prior at Oakbank, he’s a knockout chance here.
Race 4. (14:26) Schweppes Hcp 2043m
Looks pretty straight forward here with 6 Dark Alley (Bet Now: $2.60) for Paul Preusker. Comes to Morphettville off the back of a maiden win where he had the sweet run just off the speed before being presented wider on the turn and powering clear late for an impressive win. Form has been ticked off with the runner up winning next start, and off that win from Dark Alley, 2000m here should be fine.
10 Liberty Lover (Bet Now: $8.00) a key threat for me. Was keen on her when she raced here two weeks ago given she loves wet ground and she proved that was right, sitting near the speed and really going on with it late with the light weight to win impressively. Winning hasn’t been her forte in her career, but off that, think she can win again.
2 Franked (Bet Now: $21.00) is on the Adelaide Cup path potentially and for the first time this prep is getting out to a more ideal trip. The two runs back from a spell have come over 1400m and 1500m respectively. Has got back in each run and failed to a fire a shot, but now up to 2000m, an improved showing is on the cards, especially if the Adelaide Cup is on the radar.
Race 5. (15:01) TAB Handicap 1100m
Pretty keen to see 7 Cazabillie (Bet Now: $3.50) resume for Will Clarken. This mare really came of age last prep, winning her last runs and I do love horses that go out for a spell on a high. Given a good hitout in a Strathalbyn jumpout last week and it’s no secret that Will Clarken likes to use jumpouts there to get a horse ready for a first up win.
2 Enough Swagger (Bet Now: $2.80) has been one of the form horses in SA over the past couple of months. Put together a decent sequence of wins before the stretch came to an end at Gawler three weeks ago, but not without a fight after sitting wide no cover throughout. Nor sure what upside is left, but just has to hold her form.
1 Nipperkin (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Barry Brook trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Christmas Handicap over 1200m here when midfield behind Ef Troop in a pretty good effort considering how strong the tempo was. Has a good first up record and though up in the weights, does have a touch of class about her.
Race 6. (15:40) Furphy Handicap 1600m
5 Farooq (Bet Now: $7.00) looks hard to beat against these. Had his first run for Sue Murphy at Murray Bridge on New Years Day when lumping 60kg and couldn’t quite zip home well enough but was still good in defeat when second to Cosmic Award. You’d like to think he’ll come right on from that and up to 1600m, he appeals as a leading contender.
2 Regalo Di Gaetano (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Team Jolly trained gelding who placed over 1500m at Gawler a few weeks ago. Lachie Neindorf, who I think is the most improved apprentice in Australia at the moment, rode this guy a treat and he gave it every chance. Just no match for Roselli Sting, who had the featherweight and was too good. Giving this guy another chance back at Morphettville.
Think up to 1600m will really suit the Ryan Balfour trained 10 Dreamed (Bet Now: $14.00). Was really keen on her last Wednesday at Murray Bridge but she was just looking for more ground when third after getting seemingly every chance in the run. Looking for further, which she gets here, and has plenty of upside to come. A win wouldn’t shock at all.
Race 7. (16:21) Holdfast Insurance Hcp 1200m
6 Orleans Rock (Bet Now: $5.50) on top for me. Former Peter Gelagotis runner that is having start one for Paul Preusker. Comes through strong form races last prep before being transferred, with a heap of subsequent winners. Jumped out at Horsham back on January 15 and loved the way he looked in winning, and Declan Bates, who rode in the jumpout, rides here.
5 Trogir (Bet Now: $7.50) is racing well this time in for Phillip Stokes but can’t quite crack it for a win. Thought it was good initiative from Gatt on Strathalbyn Cup Day last start and he tried hard, but was no match late for the outsider Keymaster. He’s knocking on the door to win one, wouldn’t surprise if it was here…but he’s a multiples horse for me.
2 Exceltara (Bet Now: $8.50) has found a new home with Gary Searle at Gawler. This gelding was formerly based at Flemington with the Ellerton/Zahra camp but his recent runs suggested that the Melbourne metro level was a bridge too far these days. Now in SA, in a very winnable race, if he found any of his best form from Melbourne, he’d be winning.
Race 8. (17:01) Birthday Cup 2043m
If there was an all in market for the Adelaide Cup, I’d be backing 5 Hasta La War (Bet Now: $2.25). Sue Murphy has a rising star on her hands in the shape of this guy, who faces his toughest test to date. In saying that, his first up win four weeks ago at Murray Bridge was outstanding considering he was first up over an unsuitable trip, yet made a mess of them. Up to 2000m, fitter, down in the weights…really keen.
9 Light The Waves (Bet Now: $9.00) is the one I have eyes on closely. Thought she was very good first up at Gawler before going to Murray Bridge where to the eye, she was awful, but was found to be lame post race, so there were excuses. Assuming she’s right to go here, and up to 2000m looks a big tick. Expecting a big run from her.
4 Dr Dependable (Bet Now: $6.50) lacks the class of some of these, but he’s hard fit and racing well for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. This guy ran three weeks ago at Gawler when a notable drifter late in betting and it was spot on as he didn’t finish his race off as well as he had previously. Little freshen up and down in the weights, he can improve and run a race at odds.
Race 9. (17:41) Adelaide Galvanising Hcp 1050m
Ryan Balfour has 13 Sonic Deed (Bet Now: $4.40) flying at the moment. Was heavily backed when racing on the bog track here two weeks ago and if you were on, it was a rather painless watch. Got into a beautiful spot just off the speed before angling clear in the straight and putting them away to score. Harder here, but remains well weighted, hard fit and in form.
12 La Vita (Bet Now: $8.00) is suited back to 1050m for Stuart Gower. Three weeks between runs since racing at Gawler over 1100m where she did a bit of work from the wide gate just off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Rizski. Back to Morphettville and back to 1050m are two big ticks for her.
9 Alaskan Jade (Bet Now: $21.00) isn’t the most reliable horse going around, but I reckon she’s going well and can take this out. Wide no cover on speed a few weeks ago at Gawler and fought on pretty well in defeat when fourth to Galcrum, beaten just over a length. With better luck and cover, plus a more conservative steer, she’ll be more effective.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Hasta La War
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Dark Alley
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Orleans Rock
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 10
Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 12
Leg Three: 5
Leg Four: 1, 4, 9, 12, 13
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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