The Grafton Carnival reaches its climax this Thursday with a bumper eight race card, highlighted by the $160,000 Listed Grafton Cup (2350m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:20) : Emerald Valley Handicap (Class 1) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Abundance Of Heart (Bet Now: $11.00) has been given a 37 day freshen up since failing on a bottomless Quirindi surface. The form prior was very solid and you always have to respect the stable when they travel.
Big Danger: 1 Emvepee (Bet Now: $2.80) contested a maiden on his home track at the Gold Coast a couple of weeks back and let down strongly from the back to get the job done impressively. This looks an ideal step up in grade, draws well and Schofield steers.
Roughie: 7 Wonderful Tale (Bet Now: $3.50) contested a handy three year old race on Sunshine Coast Cup Day and closed off well late when fourth to Arthur Le Roi. Back up to 1400m suits, and though drawn wide, he is a leading contender.
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Race Two (12:55) : Grafton District Services Club Handicap (65) 1000m:
Back Me: 15 Rile (Bet Now: $3.80) ran on Murwillumbah Cup Day and closed off well from the back to run a game second. Firmer surface here will be ideal, he’s in good form and should be strong late.
Big Danger: 6 Far Dooley (Bet Now: $34.00) ran over 1000m at Coffs Harbour a couple of weeks back and got stuck four wide no cover for the trip, which isn’t an ideal recipe for success. McGuren jumps back on and he rides the horse well. Draws better, so a definite improver for mine.
Roughie: 5 Busting Through (Bet Now: $34.00) resumed at Kempsey and to be honest, he didn’t handle the tight track at all, finishing down the track. He is better than that, he draws well here and he strikes a very winnable race.
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Race Three (13:35) : NBN Springboard To Fame Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Master Magic Al (Bet Now: $2.70) has been given a little freshen up since resuming at Doomben where he charged home to run third to Downloading. Has trialled since and looked very sharp. Big market watch.
Big Danger: 8 Echappe (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented youngster that resumes for John Sargent. She led most of the way to win at Bathurst before running midfield to Defcon in the Black Opal. Recent Randwick trial win was sharp and there is a touch of quality about her.
Roughie: 1 Game Of Dreams (Bet Now: $5.50) ran over 1200m at Ipswich a couple of weeks back and slogged it out best on the bottomless surface to win narrowly but impressively. Needs to improve a but to win, but hard to knock winning form.
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Race Four (14:10) : Sky Thoroughbred Central Mothers Gift 1400m:
Back Me: 13 Our Masquerade (Bet Now: $21.00) was given a 12/10 from Peter Graham to get the job done a couple of weeks back at Gunnedah, sitting last in the run before hugging the rail and dashing through to the job done. She is in ripping form at the moment and deserves a crack at this race.
Big Danger: 1 Magic Of Dreams (Bet Now: $3.60) is the class runner engaged here. Kris Lees trained mare that ran at Rosehill on July 2 and had no luck at all in the straight when down the track behind Pioneering. Draws well here, Avdulla steers and this is a big drop in grade.
Roughie: 5 Moon And The Stars (Bet Now: $9.00) resumed in the Fillies and Mares race on Sunshine Coast Cup Day and made up ground late behind track specialist Golden Mineshaft. She has a really good second up record and the 3kg claim for Gina Mitchell is a big tick.
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Race Five (14:50) : Central Coast Coolrooms Big Maiden Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Stratuzy (Bet Now: $3.00) looks the standout here. She ran at Doomben last time out and ran a game second to Bidii Babe, who franked the form by winning at Eagle Farm on Tatts Tiara Day. This really looks the race for this galloper.
Big Danger: 4 Tamblyn (Bet Now: $21.00) is a former Hayes/Dabernig runner that had his first run for Ross Stitt at Taree last week and was just completely luckless in the straight. He will run very well here and should run well.
Roughie: 15 Fast Vision (Bet Now: $41.00) ran at Beaudesert a couple of weeks back and got a fair way back in the run before closing off well to run third. Bit more depth here, but there is a lot to like and there is plenty of upside.
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Race Six (15:25) : Mr Sales Association Plate (Class 6) 1200m:
Back Me: 13 Aimalac Millie (Bet Now: $11.00) ran at Eagle Farm on Tatts Tiara Day in a three year old race and made up ground late behind Bidii Babe. Loves raving at Grafton, draws much better, down in the weights…looks hard to beat at a price.
Big Danger: 7 Pera Pera (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented animal that resumes for Mack Griffith. He was last seen down the track during the Scone Carnival, but a very sharp trial win at Mudgee recently suggests he has enjoyed the freshen up and is ready to rock and roll.
Roughie: 5 Hotel Drive (Bet Now: $14.00) could be a sharp improver here. He didn’t handle the wet track first up at Doomben behind Punta Norte before failing in the Healy. He is much better on top of the ground, draws well and McGuren jumps back aboard.
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Race Seven (16:05) : McKimms Real Estate Grafton Cup 2350m:
Back Me: 6 Brave Ali (Bet Now: $26.00) looks ready to show something now. He had support at odds last start in the Tatts Cup at Eagle Farm and just got stuck in the worse ground behind Index Linked. He looks the leader, he has won at the track previously and he loves a fight.
Big Danger: 3 Foreign Prince (Bet Now: $10.00) comes through the Winter Cup at Rosehill where he was ridden off speed and just got a touch too far back when a closing third to Tucanchoo. Prior to that run, there were doubts about him at a trip but he will have no trouble here based on that effort and his form has been very good.
Roughie: 5 Amexed (Bet Now: $4.60) was a surprise winner two back at Ipswich before proving that was no fluke with a strong staying performance to take out the Caloundra Cup, a race which had serious Group class horses engaged. I’d be really shocked if he won again in a quality race like this…but while he is in this frame of mind, he has to be included.
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Race Eight (16:40) : Sir James Kirby Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 10 Prince Mayted (Bet Now: $11.00) was huge last time out at Kempsey given he had no luck at all at a vital stage when appearing to be bolting and really should have won behind Ebony Rein. Should be at peak fitness now and senior rider jumps aboard.
Big Danger: 3 Orujo (Bet Now: $4.00) won well two back at Pakenham on the Synthetic before being sent to Sydney where he ran a credible fourth to Three Sheets, who had no luck in the Jungle Juice Cup. Stable has a great record at this carnival and they rarely leave empty handed.
Roughie: 14 Knight Templar (Bet Now: $34.00) ran at the midweeks at Doomben a couple of weeks back and stuck on pretty well I thought behind Moss Harry. Rises in grade, but doesn’t mind racing at Grafton, Schofield steers and he draws a soft hate.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 Stratuzy
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 15 Rile
VALUE: Race Seven Number 6 Brave Ali
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 7
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 15
Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 14
$50 Investment= 19.84% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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