The Adelaide Festival of Racing continues this Saturday at Morphettville with the running of the Group l South Australian Derby highlighting the progrwm. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:05) : Dominant Oaklands Plate 1600m:
Back Me: Disgraceful that this is a Listed race. Still, have to find a winner and I think it will be 2 Hookfang (Best Odds: $14.00), I didn’t mind his effort last time out at Geelong behind Hollywood Tycoon and only has to repeat that here to go close.
Big Danger: 6 Nina Peak (Best Odds: $5.00) debuted at Sandown a tick over three weeks back and closed off alright late in the piece behind the well performed Highland Beat. Has enormous upside and stable is going well at the moment.
Roughie: 8 Baroque (Best Odds: $12.00) ran in the Sires Produce on the Parks track and worked home alright late in the piece behind Flying Jess. Gives the impression she will handle the mile, and this is a very thin race.
Race Two (13:40) : MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Handicap (70) 1050m:
Back Me: 3 Viddora (Best Odds: $4.00) ran in the Redelva here three weeks back and was a touch disappointing I thought behind Don’t Doubt Mamma. This is a decent drop in depth, and only has to overcome the wide gate to be a major player here.
Big Danger: 2 Vicki’s Boy (Best Odds: $4.20) is a really talented type that resumes for the Ken Sweeney yard. He does race very well on the fresh side, and despite no trials, he should take some beating.
Roughie: 12 Snipetron (Best Odds: $6.50) debuted at Gawler back in December and though green, he was too good for his rivals after copping pressure on speed. Recent trial win was good, draws well and stable is in ripping form.
Race Three (14:20) : Carbine Club Autumn Series Final (Parks Track) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Flask (Best Odds: $34.00) took a while to breakthrough, but she did it impressively last time out at Strathalbyn, aided by a lovely steer from Paul Gatt. Loses nothing with Holder going aboard, and from a soft draw, she will do no work and be strong late.
Big Danger: 7 Victory Downs (Best Odds: $4.00) might not have beat much last time out at Penola, but he showed some really good dash and fight in the straight. Has a horror draw to overcome here, but young Finnegan takes weight off and there is upside.
Roughie: 2 Edgewood (Best Odds: $10.00) won impressively two back at Murray Bridge before going to Warrnambool where a 12/10 from Ollie got the horse home…no wonder he stayed up til 1am on the booze after that ride. Still, the horse is flying and looks a major contender despite the wide gate.
Race Four (15:00) : Adelaide Galvanising Adelaide Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: At a price, I’m really keen on 7 Cobber (Best Odds: $31.00). I have loved the work he has produced this time, having no luck on each occasion. He ran on late behind Rageese in a 1400m on the Parks track and now back on the course proper, I think he is a genuine winning chance.
Big Danger: 8 Antelucan (Best Odds: $2.50) was well backed last time out at Caulfield and was given a lovely steer from Craig Williams to get the job done impressively. This looks no harder now with the scratching of Rageese and looks a major threat.
Roughie: 2 Les Darci (Best Odds: $10.00) ran at Ballarat last start and closed off strongly from near last to run a close up second to Justa Hint. Back to his own age now and he will be strong late at the end of a tough mile.
Race Five (15:40) : Projection Graphics Provincial Super Series Final 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Tidy Prophet (Best Odds: $6.00) is on the back up after racing here last Saturday where she was having her second run since the Adelaide Cup. She stuck on well late when fourth to Killarney Kid, who is low flying at the moment. Lane jumps on and I’m confident he can overcome the horror gate.
Big Danger: 3 Ustinov’s Fury (Best Odds: $13.00) beat Tidy Prophet two back before going to Murray Bridge where he did some work on speed and faltered late when second yo What’s In A Name. Confident he can turn the tables on that galloper here and prove hard to run down.
Roughie: 1 Rivers Lane (Best Odds: $11.00) ran third to Killarney Kid in that race mentioned above and his effort from off the speed was very good. He will love the seven day back up and he really is a remarkable horse given his longevity. He did run behind Weekend Hussler in a Caulfield Guineas. That’s how long ago he started off.
Race Six (16:20) : Brian Vivian’s 70th Birthday Handicap (90) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Scratchy Lass (Best Odds: $18.00) is on the back up from racing in the McKay here last weekend where she was given a pretty plain ride by Holder, sitting four wide no cover. She ran last and rightfully so. Draws poorly here too, but I think he will ease on her and get cover. If that eventuates, she can bounce back.
Big Danger: 5 Illustrious Lad (Best Odds: $3.50) is in super form at the moment. He ran down the Flemington straight on Anzac Day and ran a really good race but was no match for Supido, who won last Saturday to frank the form. He has run well in Adelaide before and strikes a very winnable race.
Roughie: 4 Karacatis (Best Odds: $18.00) has been given a freshen up since running a game fifth to Nostradamus in the Irwin, not beaten far. On his best form, he is a Group l performer, and this isn’t a Group l field, so he can definitely win here with luck in running.
Race Seven (16:50) : UBET South Australian Derby 2500m:
Back Me: $3.60 for 6 Charlevoix… (Best Odds: $3.40) dear me…he should be odds on IMO and looks the good thing of good things. He ran in the Galilee Final last time out at Sandown and was just awesome, especially over the final furlong where he lengthened out like a really good horse. 2500m here is perfect and he smashed his main danger in that race. Just wins here.
Big Danger: 1 Howard Be Thy Name (Best Odds: $5.50) has the best traditional lead up form heading in after winning the Port Adelaide Guineas and Chairmans Stakes, and on both occasions he was outstanding and dominant, aided by great rides from John Allen and Brad Rawiller respectively. Distance will be no issue and stable is just low flying at the moment.
Roughie: 5 Cool Chap (Best Odds: $6.00) ran a game second to Charlevoix in that race mentioned above before stepping up the 2800m of the St Leger at Flemington where he appreciated a strong tempo and was powerful through the line. Handy stayer yes and that win was dominant. He is a chance, but I just can’t see him turning the tables on Charlevoix.
Race Eight (17:30) : Schweppes SA Sprint Series Final 1100m:
Back Me: 14 Rock Status (Best Odds: $9.00) is a horse on the up, but he looks a potential Stakes horse after a barnstorming win first up over 1050m here four weeks ago. Another that will be suited by the hot tempo and he can unleash a brilliant sectional.
Big Danger: 5 Usain Dane (Best Odds: $4.40) had his first run for the Stokes camp on the Parks track a couple of weeks back and produced a lovely turn of foot out wide to win impressively and beat the stablemate Lucky Symbol. Well weighted after the claim and the crazy tempo will suit.
Roughie: 9 El Prado Gold (Best Odds: $26.00) hasn’t raced for five weeks since running midfield over 1100m here behind Shaf. Interesting to note that Craig Williams rides this bloke, who on face value is an outsider, but in my book, is a knockout hope.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 6 Charlevoix
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 5 Tidy Prophet
VALUE: Race Four Number 7 Cobber
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 13
Leg Three: 6
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 9, 14
$50 Investment= 20.40% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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