A bumper card of racing has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday for one of their biggest racedays- Karrakatta Plate Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (15:14) : James Boags Premium Maiden 1200m
Back Me: 2 Victorious Lad (Bet Now: $3.50) for me here in a tricky maiden to kick off Karrakatta Day. He ran in a similar maiden here a couple of Fridays back where he sat near the speed and fought but had to settle for a narrow second. Don’t think there is much depth to this, so I think he can get away with it.
Big Danger: 4 Sunset Pete (Bet Now: $7.00) is on the quick back up after resuming in a Mount Barker maiden on Sunday where he was hard in the market but just had too much to do from the back and where he was in the run. If he can settle closer in the run here, he will take a power of beating.
Long Shot: 9 Lady Emily (Bet Now: $51.00) is a Provincial based maiden who knocked on the door big time to break the maiden status but just couldn’t quite go on with it. Resumes here with no trials under the belt but is talented enough to figure in the finish with the right run.
Race Two (15:54) : Amelia Park Lamb Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 7 Scalpel (Bet Now: $5.00) looks an above average youngster for Simon Miller that crested a big impression on debut at Bunbury where he led all the way and absolutely spanked them, beating Scandal Maker, a subsequent winner. Meets a couple of rippers here, but I’m keen on him.
Big Danger: 1 Dainty Tess (Bet Now: $5.00) is just an absolute ripper for the Dan Morton yard. 18 career outings and is yet to finish further back than third. She jumps, runs, puts herself on speed and gives her all. Resumes here off the back of no trials, but given the way she races, that isn’t a concern.
Long Shot: 5 Glimmer Girl (Bet Now: $18.00) comes back to the short course after contesting the early legs of the path towards the Oaks and she didn’t quite measure up to that level and the trips were long. Back here to this level and distance, she can bounce back hard.
Race Three (16:34) : Thomas Sabo Handicap (66+) 2200m:
Back Me: 2 Royal Supreme (Bet Now: $2.60) had confident market support when racing over this track/distance two weeks back and was given a pearl of a steer from Pike but he couldn’t quite the job done and had to settle for second to Shinta Mani. Pike remains on and this is a very winnable race. Keen.
Big Danger: 10 Sonnen (Bet Now: $12.00) was on the quick back up when racing over 2200m at Bunbury last time out where he perhaps didn’t handle the back up, as well as the shifty track and being ridden on speed. I think he is much better when ridden with a sit and if that can eventuate here, he can bounce back.
Long Shot: 4 Blackwood (Bet Now: $8.00) ran fifth in that Shinta Mani race mentioned above and her effort was tidy considering she was back in the ruck before making a midrace move and I don’t think that’s her go. But now she has the hard 2200m run under the belt, she should be better off and she can definitely turn the tables.
Race Four (17:14) : Amelia Park Beef Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $7.00) is an absolute iron horse, having something like his 15th run this prep but he continues to race very well. Ran last Saturday where he sat near the speed and gave a really good kick but was grabbed right on the peg. Draws awkwardly, but overall, he’s the safe way to go.
Big Danger: 6 Ripper Rio (Bet Now: $3.40) hasn’t raced for four weeks since resuming over 1200m here where he looked an absolute tragedy beaten, getting badly held up out the back and charging to run a close up second to Shady Grey. The break between runs is the query, but he’s in the right stable.
Long Shot: 11 The Cobbla (Bet Now: $10.00) resumed here two weeks back off the back of no trials, and he did look to have somewhat of a belly on him in the yard and that is how it panned out, with the galloper feeling the pinch late behind Galaxy Star. Got a really good second up record and is right down in the weights.
Race Five (17:55) : Schweppes Grandstand Cup 1500m:
Back Me: 1 Man Booker (Bet Now: $1.85) is a gelding who has bounce back to super form which saw him win the 2015 WA Guineas. He was given a peach of a steer from Noske in the Bunbury Stakes and when he presented, he dashed right away. Extra 100m is perfect and rates highly once again.
Big Danger: Team Williams had a couple of runners nominated for this race but they have a sole runner in 7 Dezzies Dream (Bet Now: $8.00). She comes through the Bunbury Stakes where she got off the pace and tried hard up but couldn’t quite finish it off. Pike jumps on now and he rides the mare very well.
Long Shot: 5 Young Lionel (Bet Now: $21.00) trialled up okay at Bunbury prior to resuming in the Bunbury Stakes where he sat off the speed and stuck on okay late in the piece behind Man Booker. Does run well second up and will be suited up to the 1500m here. He could be one to include here at odds.
Race Six (18:35) : Amelia Park Lodge Handicap (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: 7 Sweet Ora (Bet Now: $2.30) for me here. Stable had her nominated for the three year old race over 1000m but they instead come here to tackle the older horses. She produced some excellent efforts during the Carnival, with her win two back resulting in all six rivals winning since. Trial effort was strong and Pike is on.
Big Danger: 10 Brackets (Bet Now: $8.50) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and was the unlucky runner from the race given he got back in the run and was held up on several occasions when appearing to have plenty to offer. Draws the inside gate here so if he can sit closer in the run, he will take some beating.
Long Shot: 9 American Star (Bet Now: $18.00) won that race that Brackets was unlucky in and on the flip side, American Star got the breaks to go his way and finished off with purpose out wide to get the job done. Again draws wide, but he will get clear running again and the speed engaged here does look hot.
Race Seven (19:10) : Kirin Megumi WA Oaks 2400m:
Back Me: 1 Royal Star (Bet Now: $1.35) is indeed a star and she should give this lot a nice touch up. Ridden upside down in the Natasha but that didn’t matter to her as she led all the way and absolutely bolting. I think with a sit, she will be more effective and if that eventuates, she should trot up again.
Big Danger: 5 Very Tempting (Bet Now: $5.50) is a stablemate of Royal Star who also comes through the Natasha and she too was very good. She got a long way back in the run and closed off with real purpose to run second. The extra trip looks ideal and if she can sit closer in the run, she can turn the tables.
Long Shot: 3 Vain Stryker (Bet Now: $12.00) ran second in the Natasha and was somewhat of a surprise to run there given she was a $101 shot, yet she worked home strongly behind Royal Star. She can only be suited by the added distance here, and I think she is the best outside the Williams pair.
Race Eight (19:45) : Amelia Park Karrakatta Plate 1200m:
Back Me: I honestly think 12 Seannie (Bet Now: $2.70) is a genuine even money pop, and I think she has the potential to blow these away. Dominant first up winner of the Supremacy before going to the Gimcrack where the wide gate and very negative ride beat her. Her closing sectionals were unbelievable. Draws much better here…she just wins I think.
Big Danger: 13 Kiss Bang Love (Bet Now: $7.50) won the Gimcrack and it was largely due to the brilliant steer from Pike, who was positive on the filly and got the horse into a lovely spot just off the speed and she produced a lovely turn of foot. Draws awkwardly again here, but on that effort, she has to go in.
Long Shot: 3 Riasc (Bet Now: $12.00) had the 1/1 sit in the Perth Stakes last time out and looked to travel well under Chris Parnham and once he presented in the straight it looked game over but he just couldn’t quite get the job done. I think with a more patient steer, he will get a strong 1200m for sure.
Race Nine (20:22) : Amelia Park Wines Handicap (1MW) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Presentatie (Bet Now: $5.50) clearly on top for me here. If you backed her last week, sorry to bring up the nightmare. She got badly held up down the entire straight where she looked to be absolutely bolting. She only needs normal luck here to take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 5 Juendis (Bet Now: $12.00) ran over 1200m here three weeks back where he had a nice sit just off the speed and tried hard but was no match for Presentatie, who of course was very unlucky last week. Not sure he can turn the tables here, but he should run well.
Long Shot: There was a bit to like about the resumption of 10 Come On Board (Bet Now: $34.00) over 1200m here a couple of Fridays back where he got a mile back in the run and finished off his race with real purpose behind Patrimonio. Extra trip here looks ideal and despite the depth increase, he’s a must for exotics.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 12 Seannie
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Royal Star
VALUE: Race One Number 2 Victorious Lad
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
$50 Investment= 138.88% of the dividend if successful
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