Blacktype racing returns to Flemington this Saturday with the Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m) highlighting the nine race card. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:48) : Better Beyond Plate (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Emptor (Bet Now: $3.20) put together two sharp wins at Beaumont-Newcastle before racing at Caulfield on Boxing Day where I think negative tactics from Mick Dee cost the Godolphin youngster the win. He could have led comfortably but instead opted for cover, which gifted the race to Alter Call. Just needs more aggression from the hoop here to look the winner at some stage.
Big Danger: 4 Kenedna (Bet Now: $10.00) was disappointing two back at the Valley behind Pointe Roma before appreciating the drop back to the provincials at Echuca where she was ridden a treat by Yendall to chase hard and nab Big Spender near the peg. Now that she has that winning feeling, she can go on with it.
Long Shot: 5 Fudged (Bet Now: $21.00) didn’t have much luck two back at Mornington before going to Sandown where she was given an absolute peach by Jye McNeil to hug the rail and show good dash to get the win. Stable is going very well and this filly does strike a very winnable assignment and I think the 1400m here will be no issue.
Race Two (13:22) : Seascay Handicap (84) 2000m:
Back Me: 2 Honey Cara (Bet Now: $3.00) spanked them over the Moonee Valley 2040m two back before racing at the same track/distance where she was given every chance in the run by Ben Allen and loomed to win the race on the turn but she couldn’t get past Prima. Been up for a while, and this is a rise in depth, but she’s hard fit, in form and has the Weir polish.
Big Danger: 5 My Sanctuary (Bet Now: $6.50) is a stablemate of Honey Cara who has the more upside and has good form behind her. She ran over 1800m at Sandown three weeks ago where she sat back in the run before presenting wider and finishing off strongly when second to Vandancer. Lone start here she bumped into Yulong Baby, who is talented. Looks well placed here.
Long Shot: 7 Aurora Miss (Bet Now: $41.00) is a tough little mare for Danielle Smith who will always pick up a win or two every prep, and one of those wins for the prep came last time out over 1900m at Yarra Valley when ridden a treat by Currie and he presented the mare at the right time to score. Much more depth here, but will do no work from the gate and Currie remains on.
Race Three (13:57) : Meadow Mist Handicap (84) 1400m:
Back me: 1 Vital Importance (Bet Now: $4.40) is a talented mare who is struggling to find the line a winner but I think she gets a ripping chance here. She ran over 1400m at Caulfield on Boxing Day where she got back in a slowly run affair and was under pressure a fair way out but once she balanced up, Oliver lifted her to just miss out on picking up Violent Snow, who should have bolted in last week had it not been for a plain ride. Flemington 1400m looks ideal and she finds a very winnable race.
Big Danger: 3 Princess Arrow (Bet Now: $5.00) deserves a crack in town after stringing together three wins on the bounce at the provincials, each time sitting on speed and fighting hard and edging clear late. The latest of those came over 1100m at Werribee where she sat outside the speed before showing a nice turn of foot and winning comfortably. 1400m is the obvious query, but maps well.
Long Shot: 5 Ma Jones (Bet Now: $5.00) produced some really good efforts during the Autumn/Winter before being tipped out. Resumed over 1300m at Sandown three weeks back where she sat back in a slowly run affair and couldn’t come on behind Top Me Up. Looks suited against her own sex here and will like Flemington I suspect. Knockout chance.
Race Four (14:32) : Piping Lane Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Barthelona (Bet Now: $4.00) is a classy colt that resumes for the Mike Moroney yard. He strung together three very sharp wins to kick off his career before dipping his toe into the deep end when contesting the Blue Sapphire where he was a touch outclassed behind Flying Artie, who of course went on to win the Coolmore, so that’s A grade form. Jump outs and work has been strong to the eye, trained on the track and has class. The one to beat.
Big Danger: 2 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $3.30) stuck to the task strongly when racing down the straight here two back behind the very promising Khaki before going to Sandown three weeks back where he got back in the small field and finished off with purpose but just missed out in picking up Pearl Congenial. He was 1200m to 1000m that day, so the extra 100m is suitable for him here, he’s run well down the straight previously and he has the fitness edge.
Long Shot: 8 Casque (Bet Now: $10.00) got the maiden win via the stewards room two back at Cranbourne before going to Sandown and the Pearl Congenial race where he sat near last in the run yet finished his race hard to run a close up third, beaten around half a length. Bit of a class rise here, but sprinting does seem his go now and he will be strong late.
Race Five (15:07) : Arbroath Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: The key runners come here through the 1000m race at the Valley on New Years Eve and I am sticking fat with 3 General Truce (Bet Now: $10.00) at a price. He was luckless down the straight here the start prior before going the Valley where he had a nice just off the speed but just got dragged back a touch too far via tired runners but still ran well when fourth to It Is Written. Tends to save his best for the straight and with better luck, gee I think he’ll run a race.
Big Danger: 4 Beau Rada (Bet Now: $5.00) worked home strongly here two back behind Decision Time before going to that Valley race where you could make a case that he probably should have won but it was left to brilliant tactics from Dylan Dunn on It is Written to keep Beau Rada in the pocket and that cost Beau Rada the win. Bursting to win a race and gets his chance here.
Long Shot: 6 Bullpit (Bet Now: $9.00) hasn’t really fired a shot this time in, but this is certainly the type of race where he could fire in. He also comes through the It Is Written race where he got up to lead and just copped a touch too much pressure, eventually fading. Good record down the straight and looks to get the lead to himself.
Race Six (15:42) : Rain Lover Handicap (90) 2500m:
Back Me: 6 Oncidium Ruler (Bet Now: $2.45) was given a 12/10 steer from Jake Bayliss when racing over 2400m at Sandown last Wednesday, putting the horse to sleep on the fence before saving ground whereas most riders were looking to go wider, and this horse just really attacked the line once Bayliss gave him clear air and he won impressively. Flemington 2500m looks ideal for his racing pattern and I rate him highly here.
Big Danger: 3 Soviet Courage (Bet Now: $4.60) hasn’t raced for four weeks since running midfield in the Xmas Cup (2400m) behind Destiny’s Kiss where I just dont think he handled the shifty surface. Freshened up and looked to trial well behind Dothraki before being sent to Flemington. Oliver rides and this isn’t a strong race. Gets his chance to break back into the winners list.
Long Shot: 8 Renew (Bet Now: $9.00) ran over 2400m at Sandown three weeks back where he got a long way back in the run and despite never being a winning threat, he did make up nice ground late behind Annus Mirabilis, who of course franked the form by bolting up in the Bagot. This horse hasn’t won for a long time, but there were signs last start to suggest he isn’t far off.
Race Seven (16:22) : Chester Manifold Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Top Me Up (Bet Now: $9.50) represents a great each way chance for me here. His form had been a tad patchy prior to running over 1300m at Sandown three weeks back where he was ridden an absolute treat on speed by Bayliss and he bolted in, giving nothing else a look in. I think he will get somewhat of a soft lead here, and if indeed he can get a cheap fraction, he’ll take some running down with the lightweight.
Big Danger: 8 Divine Mr Artie (Bet Now: $4.00) was a dominant winner down the straight fresh before going to the Standish where he, like most, just wasn’t suited at the weights and that told on him late when finishing behind Odyssey Moon. Much suited here on the minimum with 54kg and can definitely bounce back.
Long Shot: 3 Tonopah (Bet Now: $10.00) resumed in the Xmas Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield on Boxing Day and he was one of the real eye catching runs of the meeting given he was back and made ground on a day where achieving that was very difficult to do. He is perhaps a better horse over further, but the Flemington 1400m looks ideal and he is a two time second up winner.
Race Eight (17:02) : Craftsman Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Master Of Arts (Bet Now: $4.80) looks one of the better bets on the program for mine. Resumed with an eye catching fourth over 1400m here behind Snoppy before going to the Lord Stakes (1700m) at Caulfield on Boxing Day where he got back in a slowly run race and was off the bit before the turn but really picked up late and would have won in another 50m. Great record at Flemington and at 2000m, plus he has a stack of upside.
Big Danger: 5 Flying Light (Bet Now: $4.80) is one of the form gallopers in Victoria at the moment and has to be included here. He has won his past two starts at this track/distance, the latest coming on New Years Day where he took the lead early on in the straight yet fought on strongly to win by 3/4. The signs might be there that he is going down form wise, but he still has the picket fence next to his name and has to be respected.
Long Shot: Not many missed the hard luck tale that was 9 Cadillac Mountain (Bet Now: $8.50) in the Koroit Cup at Warrnambool on Sunday. The Darren Weir trained galloper looked as if he was going to burst through 200m and get the win at the Bool but there just wasn’t quite enough room for him and he pretty much went to the line under a hold. Just needs an ounce of better luck here to run a beauty at odds.
Race Nine (17:35) : Tauto Handicap (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 8 Rich Charm (Bet Now: $4.80) is a handy sprinter with really good straight form. He resumed over 1000m at Sandown three weeks ago where he got back in the run and was off the bit early from home but once he balanced up and got clear running, he finished his race off quite strongly to run third to Crystal Dreamer. Last run of last prep saw him take ground off Spieth at this track/distance…how well does that read for this race.
Big Danger: 12 Wall Street Wolf (Bet Now: $6.00) is clearly the best horse in the race but it’s just a matter of whether or not the lights are on upstairs. Really mixed his form in his first prep but he showed enough to suggest he has the potential to be a really good horse. Loved his recent Tatura trial win and his racing pattern should be well suited to the straight.
Long Shot: 10 Invincible Heart (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Mick Price. She hasn’t raced since late April where she sat off the pace at Caulfield and was a tad unlucky in the straight behind Nudierudie. Jump outs have been quite encouraging and she did win over this track/distance on Oaks Day 2015. Keen to see what the market does.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Master Of Arts
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Emptor
VALUE: Race Five Number 3 General Truce
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 10
Leg Three: 1, 5
Leg Four: 4, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15
$50 Investment= 11.90% of the dividend if successful
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