The Ascot Carnival is fast approaching and some nice types will be out on display in the Farnley Stakes (1400m) this Saturday at Belmont, with that race the feature on the nine race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:03) Free Entry To Belmont Plate 1400m
4 My Fair Balentine (Bet Now: $2.80) on top. Daniel O’Conner trains this filly, who broke her maiden a couple of Wednesdays back at this track/distance when a short priced elect and despite taking a while to get there, she got the win, just. Think she will get better as the distances increase, but this race doesn’t appear to have too much depth, so happy to be in her corner.
3 Belle Of Liberty (Bet Now: $1.75) has done little run in three career outings for Adam Durrant. Won the maiden two back before racing here last Wednesday when on speed and fighting on well when second to an above average type in Born To Try. Think that form reads quite well for this and the claim for an in form Jade McNaught certainly helps against this lot.
The race looks rather thin outside the top two. Next best would have to be 6 Moama Rose (Bet Now: $9.00), who is still a maiden but should be suited back to 1400m after racing over 1700m last Wednesday where I thought Warwick gave her every chance but she just didn’t quite attack the line at the end of the race when a close up third. Lacks the class, but hard fit and should run a positive race.
Race 2. (14:38) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Handicap (70+) 1600m
With a firmer track, I want to give 6 Sense Of Power (Bet Now: $7.50) a chance here. Adam Durrant trains this mare, who hasn’t set the world on fire in two runs back from a spell, but each run has been on wet ground and her best form has clearly been on dry decks, which is what she should get here, and third up from a break, she should just about ready re fitness.
Back on top of the ground should suit 3 Missile Launch (Bet Now: $6.00). Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where he did a bit of work early but eventually slotted into the 1/1, but that early work just told on him late when down the track behind Touch Of Silver. His best is good enough to win and prior to last start, there were signs that a win wasn’t far off.
7 Get Over (Bet Now: $9.00) It is a definite knockout chance. He was three weeks between runs when racing over 1300m here last Saturday when back near last in the run and finding the line strongly late in the piece when fifth to the in form Real Counsel. Bit of an unknown at the mile but off that run, it should be fine for him and like that he’s on the seven day turnaround.
Race 3. (15:17) Ride Like A Girl Maiden 1600m
I think this is D-Day for 5 Jovella (Bet Now: $2.90). Just missed out on the win two back over 1400m here before stepping back to 1200m where she found them a bit sharp but was sound late in the race. Like her up to the mile and she did run well at Stakes company over a staying trip, so we know the ability is there. Just has to translate it into a win and I think that win will come here.
4 Amillionite (Bet Now: $3.70) is racing quite consistently for Adam Durrant but the mare just can’t crack it for a win. Been on her back a few times and she has run well but just can’t put a win on the board, the latest run coming at Northam where she added to her place tally when third to Highest Regard. Looks to get a good run in transit once again…but I couldn’t back her to win personally.
6 Ahyoka Frost (Bet Now: $9.00) could be a sneaky chance. They rode this mare off the speed last time out in the maiden mentioned above at Northam and she found the line strongly, just missing out on the win when second to Highest Regard. That was her first really decent run throughout her career and it came where they rode her cold, so with that in mind, she’s a chance.
Race 4. (15:57) Colin Teede 80th Birthday Handicap (1MW) 1600m
I reckon 3 Time To Hunt (Bet Now: $21.00) is one of the better value plays of the weekend, hopefully at decent double figure odds. He’s been plagued by bad barriers this time in, which has meant he has had to be dragged back to near last in order to get cover, the latest behind Bunker Buster two weeks back at this track/distance. Has gate one this time, so he can sit much closer in the run and will be hard to hold out I reckon.
4 Trump This (Bet Now: $1.80) looks one of the hardest to beat. Team Williams trains this gelding, who ran over 1400m here three weeks ago and produced a really good finale from the back, clocking good late splits, when second to Regal Counsel, who franked the form last Saturday. Up to the mile second up with a stack of upside, he should take a power of beating.
1 Cockney Crew (Bet Now: $3.60) is a talented animal for Kieran McDonagh that is resuming, having not raced since running a narrow second in the WA Derby behind Regal Power. I think whatever he does here, he will improve on, but he has got a touch of class on his side and loved the way he went in a recent Lark Hill trial win. Class I think will carry him a long way.
Race 5. (16:37) Bradley McGuinness Birthday Handicap (1MW) 1600m
Last chance for 4 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $6.50). Thought he was really good fresh when a closing third to Blackwood River before racing again at the 1400m here three weeks ago where the market didn’t like him late and it was spot on as he struggled when midfield behind Regal Counsel, who has franked the form since. I think the key is a little drop in overall depth and getting to the mile.
Vernon Brockman has done a fab job with 1 Heavenly Affair (Bet Now: $3.00) this prep, winning three on the bounce, the latest coming last Wednesday over 1700m here. Lucy had him in a decent enough spot near the speed before getting clear air in the straight and finishing best to win. Hardest test to date, but he’s flying and has earned a crack at Saturday grade.
7 Blue Horse (Bet Now: $6.50) looks one of the hardest to beat for an in form Ashley Maley stable. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago in the race where Vermont Lady took charge and ran at a crazy tempo in front, setting it up for those from the back. Blue Horse came but just died on the run late. How much did that run take out of him? Time will tell.
Race 6. (17:18) G & B Mcinerney 70th (bm64+) 2000m
I think Lindsey Smith has a decent stayer on his hands in the shape of 5 Too Close The Sun (Bet Now: $1.80), who is 2/2 this time in. First up win over 1700m here was strong when near the speed before stepping up to 2100m where he was even more impressive, albeit in a weak race, but he still put them away like a nice horse. Could he be a sleeper for a race like the Perth Cup? Trap For Fools did something similar a couple of years ago.
2 Bunker Buster (Bet Now: $5.00) has to be rated highly here. He was outstanding in winning over the mile here two weeks ago given he was spotting Vermont Lady double digits in lengths at one point, and over an unsuitable trip, that can be a tough ask, but he was strongest late and very impressive. Will only be improved up to 2000m with upside and is a key, perhaps only threat, to Too Close The Sun.
9 Regent Star (Bet Now: $27.00) just found the mile too short behind Kelly’s Secret two back before stepping back up to a staying trip a fortnight back and sticking to the task well in defeat when third to the tough nut that is Noir De Rue. Back to 2000m I like because I reckon beyond that, at this level, sees him out. Couldn’t back him to win, but certainly one for multiples.
Race 7. (17:55) Craig Norwell 50th B'day Handicap (1MW) 1200m
In the corner of 7 Bel My Pago (Bet Now: $5.00). Lindsey Smith trains this mare, who had a little freshen up prior to racing over 1000m here two weeks ago where she sat off a good speed before being presented clear air out wide on the turn and surged hard late, but just missed out on the win when second to Ice Maker. Should take really good improvement from that and up to 1200m, she’s the one to beat.
4 Proconsent (Bet Now: $4.80) is owned in the same interests as Bel My Pago and I think connections will get the quinella. This gelding is 3/3 to start his career, the latest coming at this track/distance a couple of Wednesday back when on speed and chasing hard late to continue his winning ways. Harder here, but the way he’s going, he deserves a crack at this level.
12 On The Turps (Bet Now: $17.00) can mix his form but his best is certainly good enough to run well here. He ran over this track/distance two weeks back where he was back near last in the run and never really a winning factor but didn’t mind his finale behind Why Choose Her. If you like him, you’re hoping for a genuine speed so he can relax, because he can get keen in the run.
Race 8. (18:30) Farnley Stakes 1400m
I’m really keen on 4 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $3.10), who is on the Railway path for Team Williams. Measured up in blacktype company at his last two runs from last prep, placing each time and really catching the eye. He’s had three trials in readiness for his return, the latest coming last Monday at Lark Hill, where he went outstanding and smashed the clock. He’ the winner barring bad luck.
Second up syndrome is a little query with 2 Variation (Bet Now: $8.00), but I thought he got a definite pass mark fresh in the Idyllic Prince from two weeks ago. Admittedly he had the A1 run in transit, tracking the slow speed before getting clear and finding the line well, but was no match for the in form Great Again. Bit more depth here, but he’s a quality animal when right.
3 Pushin Shapes (Bet Now: $26.00) is better suited over further, but he has a touch of class/quality. He resumes for the Pearce team with eyes on the Perth Cup. Didn’t really set the world on fire in four runs last time in but he was racing over unsuitable trips. Like the way he has trialled leading in and if they go silly in front, he will be one who will be savaging the line.
Race 9. (19:10) Crown Perth Handicap (70+) 1000m
Just want a market push for 6 Molten (Bet Now: $8.50) and I’ll be confident he wins. He’s the best horse in the race IMO and did run very well in three races last prep. Bolted up fresh before bumping into Special Reward and Valour Road at his next two before being tipped out. No trials leading in, and a tricky gate, but I think with even luck, he’s got this lot beat.
7 Danny George (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to be going really well this time in for Brett Pope. He produced an electric finale to win his first two runs this time in before racing over 1000m here a few weeks ago where he bungled the start, then was held up in the straight…could easily make a case he should have won when fourth to Don’t Fuss. Would love a step up in trip but a fast run 1000m should be fine.
Firmer footing and a slight drop in overall depth should suit 1 Dam Ready (Bet Now: $27.00) for Mark Bairstow. He resumed over this track/distance on August 3 when off the speed but when asked for the big effort, there wasn’t much of a response and I think he struggled on the shifty surface. He’s better than that, and his best is good enough to run well against this lot.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 6 Molten
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Too Close The Sun
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 3 Time To Hunt
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 5
Leg Two: 4, 7
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 12
Leg Four: 6
$50 Investment = 625% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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