The Adelaide Carnival continues to kick on this Saturday at Morphettville for Port Adelaide Guineas Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (13:06) UBET Handicap (90) 2030m
Keen on 6 Chequered Flag (Bet Now: $6.00). He has been excellent in two runs back from a spell for the Darren Weir camp as he prepares himself for the Bool. Ran over 1800m at Caulfield last time out and was working home into the race well before condition just gave out the final 100m. Given a good jumps trial last week at Cranbourne to tune up, a formula used with great success by the stable.
3 Silent Warrior (Bet Now: $2.15) is the form horse in the race and should take a power of beating here. Spanked them two back over 1950m on the Parks track before going to the Stawell Cup where Jamie Kah rode him a treat on speed and he absolutely bolted in to score. Expect similar tactics…only query is that there is more depth.
7 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $15.00) is an absolute beauty for the John Hickmott team and he can only run well again. Won the Penola Cup two back before going to the mile here last Saturday where he stuck on well in defeat behind Rising Hope. Up to 2000m in seven days looks ideal for the veteran and I think he’s a must for exotics.
Race 2. (13:41) Impending New To Darley Handicap (70) 1200m
3 Over Exposure (Bet Now: $2.70) is the one for me in a good three year old race. Desperately unlucky first up on Adelaide Cup Day behind Easy Beast before racing on the Parks track a fortnight back and aided by some magic from Jamie Kah, the Queensland bred three year old charged away. He’ll eat up a fast run 1200m here and has upside.
4 Twitchy Frank (Bet Now: $9.50) is a quality filly for the Darren Weir team who could potentially be on a Robert Sangster path provided she runs well here. She hasn’t raced since Feb 17 in the Vanity at Flemington when doing too much work on speed behind Rimraam. Back to 1200m on the freshen up is ideal and stable on the road at the moment are flying.
10 Naseeb (Bet Now: $46.00) is a really promising gelding for the Sue Jaensch team who I think can measure up here. Got his confidence back up with an absolute spank job of his rivals over 1200m on his home track at Naracoorte last time out when heavily backed and bolting up under Emily Finnegan. Just has to produce his best away from home.
Race 3. (14:16) Dequetteville Stakes 1050m
3 Music Bay (Bet Now: $2.75) looks the way to go. Smart looking filly for the Phillip Stokes team who was crunched in betting when debuting on the Parks where she scored an impressive win, aided by a peach from Dom Tourneur, beating Really Swish, who went close in the VOBIS Gold at Bendigo last weekend, so that form reads well, and she she has trialled like a bomb since.
1 Yulong Monceros (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Squamosa filly for the Ciaron Maher team who was a notable drifter in betting when resuming at the Valley over the 100m where she had the lovely sit off a hot speed and once she got clear air, she won quite well. Form out of that has been very good and looks capable here.
11 Yankee Eyes (Bet Now: $31.00) is a local filly who was heavily backed when debuting at Oakbank on Easter Monday where she got back off the speed and sightly held up but once she got clear air, she savaged the line and just missed out on picking up Tenderly. Looks to be talented…talented enough to win this? Time will tell.
Race 4. (14:56) Hughes Limousines Handicap (82) 1200m
3 Handsome Thief (Bet Now: $2.55) looks a near standout. Was D-Day for him at Caulfield a fortnight back where most were on him and he finally got the win on the board for the prep, aided by a peach from Lane. This race doesn’t look harder and now he has the win on the board, hopefully he can go right on with it.
13 Manuel (Bet Now: $4.10) looks well placed here by the Tony McEvoy camp. He is a very good horse, loaded with talent, but the application of doing it on race day on a consistent basis has been the issue, as you can tell of his strike rate of three from twelve. But in saying that, ability wise, he’s better than these, and trialled up enormous a couple of weeks back for his return.
8 Arkham Knight (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented four year old for the John Macmillian team who should be close to hard fitness now given he is third up from a break. Disappointing first up in the Matrice before going to the Oakbank Stakes and running much better when fourth to Heart Of A Lion. Drops in depth and likes racing here.
Race 5. (15:36) Dr Jack And Beth Rogers Handicap (90) 1600m
12 Tatoosh (Bet Now: $4.10) is absolutely low flying this time in for new trainer Will Clarken, winning three from three since joining the stable. Was a hard fav when racing at Oakbank on Easter Saturday and aided by a sweet steer from improving apprentice Kayla Crowther, the gelding bolted up. Stable should always be respected when they come to Melbourne.
8 Hussybay (Bet Now: $5.50) looks a definite threat. Resumed over the 1250m on the Parks track three weeks ago where he got a fair way back in the run and you could make a case he would have gone close to winning with proper clear air, instead heaving to settle for an unlucky third to surprise winner Waging War. Good second up stats and loves the track/distance.
13 Sagaab (Bet Now: $41.00) is an absolute beauty for the Travis Doudle team. Three weeks between runs since racing over the 2250m on the Parks track where he took an absolute eternity to wind up but under hard riding from Jamie Kah, he surged hard to grab Tunes right on the peg. Back to the mile some concern, but he’s in form and he’ll be strong late.
Race 6. (16:16) Holdfast Insurance Handicap (82) 1050m
They look as if they’ll go mad in front here, so I’ll be hoping 8 Mystified (Bet Now: $4.20) gets back and has last look. She was a very frustrating mare to follow last prep. Ran well, just didn’t win. Looks to be intent to run well early this prep because she has been given two strong trials, both times ridden by Kah. Happy to give her another chance.
9 Rock Status (Bet Now: $11.00) is the other back marker who will look to blouse them. He attempted to do that three weeks back over the 1000m on the Parks track but ran out of time when third to Entrancing. Much better suited on the course proper and though he’ll give them a start, he’ll be finishing off hard.
Gee the gutsy mare 10 Tempting Faith (Bet Now: $20.00) is racing in career best form. I think she can roll along in front and give a great sight at odds. She ran over 1050m on Adelaide Cup Day where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but just tired late when third to El Sicario. Last 100m will be her test, but she’ll look the winner.
Race 7. (16:56) Port Adelaide Guineas 1800m
6 Leicester (Bet Now: $2.35) for me in what looks a really good race for the three year olds heading towards the Oaks/Derby. This horse was heavily backed when racing over 1800m at Sandown last time out but the slow tempo was clearly against him and he had no hope when third to Schorlarly, who franked the form with a win last week at Cranbourne. Looks hard to beat.
4 Spring Choice (Bet Now: $7.00) has really turned the corner in recent times. Was forever going to be a maiden but he got the win on the board at Geelong before going to the Mornington Guineas where he was quite dominant in winning and the margin flattered his rivals. If he ticks the 1800m box, he’s a big threat.
7 Greycliffe (Bet Now: $15.00) is a talented son of Tavistock for the Matt Cumani team. Well backed when resuming over the mile at Ballarat and after attempting to lead all the way, he fought on okay but just ran out of condition when fourth to Notio. Should improve off that and I think he’ll be better off with cover.
Race 8. (17:35) Sepoy Now Standing At Darley Handicap (70) 1200m
16 Steel Of Madrid (Bet Now: $5.00) for me in the get out. Tony Noonan has this horse going really well at the moment. Strung together three impressive wins before a gutsy fourth down the straight at Flemington behind Milwaukee, with that form holding up via Handsome Thief. Given a quiet trial last week and he has the class to beat these.
I thought 12 Beautiful Flyer (Bet Now: $19.00) could run a real race last Saturday but she let me down a touch. Looked to have a sweet run just off the pace but once the big effort was needed, she didn’t exactly ping as well as expected. Backing up in a week a good sign for me and the big tick is a senior jock is steering.
19 Pluckit (Bet Now: $8.50) looks good odds to my eye. Thought his win on Easter Monday at Oakbank was super considering he did all the work on speed, was there to be beaten, but the last 100m, he really dug in when it counted and ended up drawing clear for a dominant win. Back to 1200m looks ideal and is well weighted with the claim.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 16 Steel Of Madrid
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Music Bay
VALUE: Race One Number 6 Chequered Flag
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 7, 8, 12, 13
Leg Two: 8, 9, 10, 12
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7
Leg Four: 16
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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