The Ascot Carnival warms up this Saturday, headlined by the R J Peters Stakes (1500m), with the winner getting ballot exemption for the Railway next Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
WA Champion Fillies Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the WA Champion Fillies Stakes
RJ Peters Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the RJ Peters Stakes
Race 1. (15:29) Tabtouch Westspeed (rs0mw) 1400m
Bludger of a race to start the day, but the most progressive of this lot is clearly 11 Western Rhythm (Bet Now: $3.50), who resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago and you had to like the way she finished her race off from the back when second to Tajmali. The rise to 1400m looks perfect for her. Just needs luck from the tricky gate.
8 Melarab (Bet Now: $4.80) comes back to 1400m after resuming over the mile in a maiden here. Was backed with real confidence late and he was much too good for his rivals in leading throughout. Did he beat much? I’m saying no, but he was impressive and with the claim, lack of depth, can see him leading and making this a truly run seven furlongs.
7 Wild Fusion (Bet Now: $11.00) is a handy son of Oratorio that resumes. His best form is generally over a but further than this, but all previous first up runs have come over a shorter trip, not 1400m, he’s won a trial, he draws gate one, Chris Parnham steers and the Blinkers go on, so there looks to be real intent here. Watch the market.
Race 2. (16:09) Amelia Park (rs1mw) 1200m
Going the way of 5 Home In Five (Bet Now: $2.50) for Michael Lane. Not sure he beat much last time out over 1200m at Bunbury, but it was the manner in which he put them away that impressed, chasing a good speed before peeling wider into clear air, taking the front and drawing clear late. Impressive performance and can only see him proving hard to beat from the inside draw.
9 Peppijack (Bet Now: $15.00) has the good wet track stats so that brings him right into play here. Ran over 1400m here on Cup Day when on speed and battling away pretty well when third to Aconite. His wet track form is compelling for a race like this and I think a big tick for him is getting back to 1200m. Hard to beat.
12 Tramontane (Bet Now: $15.00) is eligible for easier but Jo Leeson and her runners should always be respected when she brings them to town. Resumed over 1000m at Mount Barker where she led throughout and was much too good under a lovely front running steer from Fitzgerald. Draws well, suspect he’ll lead and give a bold sight.
Race 3. (16:49) Tony Favazzo 30yrs @ Prc-bm66+ 1000m
Leaning the way of 4 State Attorney (Bet Now: $20.00) for the Durrant camp. Resumed at this track/distance four weeks ago where he found them a bit nippy but was really good through the line behind Elite Street. Is this a prep run for a 1200m race next time? Perhaps, but he has gate one to use and the depth isn’t as strong compared to fresh.
1 Mum’s My Hero (Bet Now: $13.00) is a former SA sprinter that makes his WA debut for the Harvey camp. Did an excellent job when last in work, establishing himself as a Saturday class horse over there. Unbeaten in three runs fresh and thought the recent trial was more than encouraging, so he’s a huge market watch.
Fresh legs and back to 1000m, I think 3 Danny George (Bet Now: $35.00) is very dangerous. Brett Pope trained sprinter who does tend to save his best for when he has fresh legs, and four of his five career wins have come at 1000m. Two months between runs, draws soft with Pateman to steer…knockout chance for sure.
Race 4. (17:28) Crown Towers (bm72+) 1400m
7 Kelvin (Bet Now: $3.10) is the one with the wet track form so leaning his way but not a great deal of confidence. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago when leading and giving a solid enough kick but just felt the pinch late, finishing third. Should find the front here and his best form has come on wet ground. The one to beat.
8 Position Of Power (Bet Now: $8.00) should get run of the race from the draw. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago when near the speed throughout and looked to travel well but couldn’t quite go on with it. Harvey gets on really well with this horse and his wet track stats do read well. Can bounce back here for sure.
The best version of 4 Dig Deep (Bet Now: $12.00) is certainly capable. He hasn’t really set the world on fire since his 2YO season and I dare Blinkers on first time is a last resort to find some form. Resumed in the In Love With Paris race mentioned above where he settled last in the run in a fast run race and didn’t fire a shot. He’s better than that and has an inside gate to use.
Race 5. (18:08) R.j. Peters Stakes 1500m
The win and you’re in race for the Railway next Saturday. It looks a perfect race for 8 True Attraction (Bet Now: $4.60). Both runs back from a spell have come over 1400m, the latest being two weeks ago when producing really good late splits behind Luke’s Gold. 2/2 when produced third up and finally gets extra ground. Clearly the one to beat for me.
9 Truly Great (Bet Now: $1.75) has the ability to measure up here. Just an interesting set up back to 1500m from 1800m. Is he more a Kingston Town/Perth Cup type? We’ll see just how much brilliance he has here. He sort of half switched off when winning last time out, and in those benchmark races, he can get away with it. Not so much here. But he’s got loads of upside.
6 Moschard (Bet Now: $10.00) has the barrier to be very dangerous here. Luke Fernie trained gelding that ran third in the Luke’s Gold race mentioned above. He was wide with cover from the tricky draw and tried to get involved, looming late to finish a close up third. Can sit much closer in the run from the draw and prove very hard to beat.
Race 6. (18:45) Ascot Gold Cup 1800m
2 Too Close The Sun (Bet Now: $2.40) has a fair bit on these in terms of class you would think. Resumed in the Asian Beau two weeks ago and was very good on speed, chasing it and taking the front, only to be bloused late by Inspirational Girl. Fitter, steps up in trip, and any luck from the wide gate, he is too good for this lot.
9 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $12.00) is the one with a bit of sense of timing about her. Ran over 1800m here two weeks ago and worked home okay without really threatening behind impressive stablemate Truly Great. She’s certainly in the mix for a Perth Cup and can get there with a forward showing here, and does have the barrier draw advantage over the Lindsey Smith galloper.
As 1 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $17.00) is getting older, is he looking for more ground, or has he had enough? That’s the question that will be answered here, because his Northam Cup effort was plain, making up minor headway. This time last year, he was nearly favourite for the Railway. This is pretty much his D-Day.
Race 7. (19:20) W.a. Champion Fillies Stakes 1600m
11 Brave Angel (Bet Now: $15.00) is coming out of a 1500m maiden, so the class rise is steep, but I think she’s very, very promising. Both career outings have showed hints of being a quality filly. The win last time out in that 1500m maiden was impressive, and much like on debut, her closing splits were strong. Think she can measure up to these and run very well.
4 Magical Dream (Bet Now: $3.60) is the obvious, but she can’t take a trick when it comes to barrier draws. The barrier beat her in the Burgess Queen. Just got too far back but loved the way she found the line. I think she’s the Bob Peters filly that will go to the Kingston Town and if that is the case, she nearly should be winning this.
I hope McGruddy opts for a sit with 1 Watch Me Dance (Bet Now: $15.00) from the better draw. They’ve tried to ride her warm in both runs back from a spell and it just hasn’t worked for her, the latest in the Burgess Queen. She should get a lovely run from the inside gate and her best is clearly good enough to measure up here.
Race 8. (19:57) Colonel Reeves Stakes 1100m
She’s a real yard and market watch 5 Flirtini (Bet Now: $9.00), but if she’s anywhere near right, she has the class and quality to beat these and cement her place as a leading Winterbottom contender. She resumes off the back of two sharp trials and is a mare that is an absolute bomb when produced fresh. Hard to beat from the soft draw.
9 Indian Pacific (Bet Now: $3.50) is an absolute beauty for Neville Parnham that will put himself on speed and try his heart out. Resumed four weeks ago in the Crawford where he chased a hot speed set by Mervyn before gradually getting the better of him and he was too good. Gets a lovely run once again and is one of the key chances.
3 Rock Magic (Bet Now: $8.50) is eleven years of age for the Gangemi team but she’s still got a healthy zest for racing still based on his effort in the Prince Of Wales when back and finishing off strongly when third to Valour Road. Good second up record and hopefully can sit closer in the run from a much better barrier.
Race 9. (20:35) Solutions Matchmaking (bm66+) 1600m
The forecast is for this track to have juice in it and one horse who won’t mind that at all is 1 Aconite (Bet Now: $10.00). She was six weeks between runs and back to 1400m from 2100m when finding a genuine wet track here and she lapped it up, sprinting clear late from off the speed to score. Fitter, up to 1600m, and I don’t see an extra 2kg being an issue. Clearly the one to beat.
9 Em Tee Aye (Bet Now: $3.50) is bred to handle a wet track so giving him another chance. The tactics were strange last Saturday in the Fairetha. They elected to ride him cold and he just couldn’t get involved at all. Better suited when allowed to be near the speed, so if that eventuates here, he can easily bounce back.
7 Strike Force (Bet Now: $31.00) has done bugger all in recent runs but he is a horse who loves to get his toe so with a wet track in mind, I am including him. His past couple of runs have come on firm ground and he hasn’t really fired a shot, but with a wet track on the cards, with Blinkers back on, he can run a much improved race.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Aconite
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Too Close The Sun
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Brave Angel
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Leg Three: 3, 5, 9, 14
Leg Four: 1
$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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