14/10/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne, Cranbourne Cup day

Cranbourne will host their biggest race day on Sunday for Cranbourne Cup Day, the $350,000 feature the highlight on a monster ten race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

6 Notation (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Fastnet Rock filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team who had trialled well prior to debuting at Geelong where Regan gave her a lovely steer just off the speed and despite taking a little while to wind up, she knuckled down strongly to get the job done. Overall, that maiden wasn’t strong, but have to respect the stable.

Want to give 3 Octane (Bet Now: $5.50) another chance. This well bred colt bolted up to break the maiden two back at Wangaratta before going to the Valley on Moir night and casting a plate in a forgive run for mine behind Sunset Watch. Looks to have good talent and if you can overlook last start, he’s in the game.

1 It’s A Classic (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Testa Rossa for Matty Williams who debuted a month back at Swan Hill where he was unwanted and despite doing a bit of work in the run, he proved far too good for his rivals. Couple of winners have come from that maiden and he has been gelded since last start. He’s a definite yard/market watch.

I’ll side with 2 Judge O’Reilly (Bet Now: $2.60), who is first up here. He debuted on the Pakenham Synthetic and you could make a very strong case he should have won when a luckless second to I Am Vinnie in what has turned out to a pretty decent maiden. Liked what I saw in a recent trial here and C Williams booked is a good lead for mine.

9 Asgard Massif (Bet Now: $7.50) is a beautifully bred colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team who comes here off a Benalla maiden where he was wide no cover for the trip but stuck on pretty well in defeat I thought behind Mirette. Form has been franked by Junipal and this does look a fraction weaker. Definite threat.

15 Tormino (Bet Now: $17.00) is a son of Reliable Man on debut for the Maher/Eustace stable. He’s had a couple of jump outs in readiness for his first start. The latest jump out was behind Beerz With Clint, who was luckless at Mornington. The jump out didn’t scream of a debut winner, but have to respect the stable.

3 Frankel My Dear (Bet Now: $3.60) on top. Robbie Laing has his stable going pretty well and he has this well bred bloke resuming. Showed good promise last time in and has been tuned up for his return with a couple of trials, the latest coming on Monday here in fast time. Got the right grounding and has a touch of quality.

7 Girl On Song (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Your Song mare resuming for the Brendan McCarthy team. This girl had two runs to kick off her career in January where she ran sixth both times in what looked a couple of handy maidens. Been given a really good break and looks forward enough to my eye off trials/jump outs, plus has the handy draw.

 6 Tour Down Under (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Americain on debut for the Robert Kingston stable. He trialled a few weeks back here over 800m and was okay without setting the world on fire. Better suited over further I’d suggest based on breeding, but he draws a soft gate and overall, this isn’t a strong contest.

6 Necessary (Bet Now: $5.50) is an interesting runner. She’s over a month between runs since racing on the Pakenham Synthetic and seemingly had her chance when fourth to A Fighting Fury, a quality three year old for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Very consistent overall record and back onto the turf perhaps will suit her, plus she’s been nominated/accepted a few times, so expect her to be ready.

13 Vitani (Bet Now: $2.50) is a daughter of Animal Kingdom for Wendy Kelly who has always had a bit of a wrap on her. Good first prep, clearly showing good signs of above average talent. Trialled up really nicely here on Monday with Williams steering and he remains on for this race, which is a tick.

9 Sir Kalahad (Bet Now: $9.00) is an All Too Hard gelding resuming. He hasn’t raced since June at Sandown when finishing midfield in a strong 3YO race behind Mr Money Bags. Showed good speed in a trial here on Monday and wasn’t knocked about. Tricky draw to overcome but has talent and should be respected.

Happy to be with 4 Ruchla (Bet Now: $6.00), John Sadler trains this mare, who was three weeks between runs when winning impressively over 1140m at Geelong, aided by a sweet steer from Jordan Childs, who remains on. Trainer gave it a good push earlier in the week and just has to overcome the tricky draw to go close.

1 Earth Angel (Bet Now: $4.40) is a quality mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes. This girl has been aimed at blacktype throughout her career, and rightfully so given her breeding. Hasn’t quite run up to that level but has been far from disgraced. Resumes here with the blinkers off/winkers on, and a recent jump out was encouraging.

If they go silly in front, look for 10 Diamond Bow (Bet Now: $4.60) to be ambushing late. Wendy Kelly trains this daughter of Sebring, who was pretty good in her Autumn prep before being given a let up and bolting in on a Geelong bog before being spelled. Trialled well here on Monday to the eye. Will spot them a star but will be strong late.

4 Black Sail (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Maher/Eustace trained four year old who was very good fresh at Bendigo behind Lucky Fish before racing on Benalla Cup Day where on face value, I thought he was disappointing behind Woulda Thought So but the horse did lose a plate so perhaps a tiny forgive. He’s good enough to win with his A Game.

13 I Have Arrived (Bet Now: $6.00) looks set up to run really well for Mick Price. Ran over the 1400m on Benalla Cup Day where he just got too far back in the run but worked home with real purpose late behind Woulda Thought So, who has form around Iconoclasm, so that reads well for this and I think the mile suits.

I think the local galloper 2 Benall (Bet Now: $101.00) should be respected. Geoff Cousins trains this stayer, who is likely being prepped for the 2500/3000 events during the Valley night season, so I’m sure whatever he does here he will improve on but being trained on the track, the big day, wouldn’t be surprised to see him forward enough to run a cheeky race at odds.

3 Thermal Current (Bet Now: $11.00) just has to hold his spot from gate one and gee I think he’ll go close. He hasn’t raced since the Bel Esprit in the Autumn when finishing down the track behind Sprightly Lass. Hasn’t won fresh, but has placed 6/9 and hopefully can land just behind a likely hot speed, having last look.

4 Captain Punch (Bet Now: $4.20) should lead these for fun but the last bit will be the test. Ran over 1100m at Caulfield last time where he just did too much work on speed and dropped out behind Spending To Win. Drawn wide, but should come over and lead, and usually on this day, those on speed are advantaged.

2 Demonstrate (Bet Now: $4.80) is a third up specialist and is trained on the track so be very wary of him. He last raced down the straight at Flemington when a close up sixth in the Bobbie Lewis behind Dothraki. That form reads quite well for this and the tune up trial on Monday looked pretty sharp to the eye.

4 Furrion (Bet Now: $1.80) on top but gee he’s short enough at $1.70/thereabouts. Very progressive galloper for Darren Weir who won narrowly last time at Caulfield but I think the win had a lot of merit. He was staying at 1700m from the start prior and the zip wasn’t there. He’s a horse looking for further and he gets it here.

8 Sheezdashing (Bet Now: $10.00) looks the one at silly odds. This mare produced a ripping resumption in the Let’s Elope at Flemington behind I Am A Star before bumping into that mare again in the Stocks in a race where those on speed were advantaged. Up to 2000m looks perfect and was beaten a lip by Youngstar in the QLD Oaks, and we know that’s A1 form.

5 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $16.00) is the local hope for Ken Keys and I’m sure she’ll give a sight. She hasn’t raced since finishing down the track in the Naturalism where she never really looked the winner and was a beaten horse on the turn. On her home track and should get the cart over via Folkswood.

I’ll take a punt on 6 Wolfe Tone (Bet Now: $7.00). This stayer resumed on the Pakenham Synthetic where he just got too far back off the pace but I liked the way he finished his race off behind Maxey Camp, who is an in form galloper. Blinkers are on, Concussion Plate are off, so there looks to be intent to run well.

11 Alessandro (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of Fiorente for Robbie Griffiths who was an impressive debut winner on the Pakenham Synthetic before racing over the mile on Benalla Cup Day where he just found the trip too short to my eye but loved the way he found the line. He’ll eat up the extra trip and shouldn’t be far away from the draw.

Can 14 Inkslinger (Bet Now: $9.50) live up to the early promise? He finally got the maiden win out of the way last time out on Benalla Cup Day and I thought his effort was very good. He was 5-6 wide from around the 600m mark and was there to be run down late but he showed some ticker and proved too good. He’s promised to be a Derby horse. This will be a good guide.

A nation will roar for a hero in the get out via 9 Tamasa (Bet Now: $3.70). He’s got Group l talent but he’s still doing a bit wrong. Should have won by a few lengths last time at Geelong but wanted to lay in and Johnny Allen couldn’t get fair dinkum on him. Can see him getting three wide cover and blending in on the turn with real purpose.

Wouldn’t be surprised if 11 I Did It Again (Bet Now: $3.90) won. Hard luck story here two back behind subsequent Caulfield winner Grey Shadow before going to the Testa Rossa where he didn’t have much luck but was good late behind Trekking. On his home track with a soft gate with the right form, he’s likeable.

4 Call A Day (Bet Now: $7.50) is racing so well at the moment for Wez Hunter and he looks to get on speed favours here. He has won his past two over 1500m at Mornington, each time ridden a treat on speed. Has run well at Cranbourne previously and with Callow jumping on, he should get a good time of it in front.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Thermal Current

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Notation

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 6 Wolfe Tone

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 3

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8

Leg Three: 6, 7, 11, 14

Leg Four: 4, 9, 10, 11

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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