The two day Scone Carnival wraps up on Saturday where it is Dark Jewel Day on blacktype filled meeting. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 800m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.
Race One (12:05) : Kia Ora Stud Handicap (78) 2200m:
Back Me: 6 Interlocuter (Bet Now: $2.60) looks a standout here. Very talented import for Godolphin who started Winx odds when racing over 2100m at Wyong last time out and though he didn’t beat much, he won it as if it was a barrier trial and sub 34 for the final 600m. Looks highly exciting and could develop in a real stayer of the future.
Big Danger: 3 Great Glen (Bet Now: $5.00) had his first Sydney outing at Hawkesbury over 2100m a fortnight back and was quite impressive to the eye on first look, charging home between runners and finishing off to get the win. Looks to have enormous upside left and this looks a nice stepping stone towards Brisbane.
Long Shot: If this race was 2400m or bit further, I’d have 9 Plot Twist (Bet Now: $41.00) on top. His run at Hawkesbury was very good I thought considering they walked in front and they ran home in sharp time, so he really had no hope but he stuck on quite well. Getting fitter now, big track suits, up in trip, upside…definite threat.
Race Two (12:40) : Star Turn @ Vinery Handicap (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 12 Ozark (Bet Now: $9.00) looks the safe way to go here. Godolphin galloper that put behind him a frustrating run of outs with a dominant win at Canterbury, aided by a peach of a steer from Brenton Avdulla. 1100m on this track looks perfect for him, he draws well and now he has that winning feeling, he can go on with it.
Big Danger: 10 Three Sheets (Bet Now: $23.00) should be forgiven for his last start failure at Canterbury on Easter Monday. Got back on a day where those near the speed were advantaged and couldn’t come on, even though the winner was midfield, wide with no cover. Been kept on ice since, and I think this could well be a target.
Long Shot: 7 Hot Hit (Bet Now: $18.00) was kept very safe in the market when resuming at the midweeks on a bog Warwick Farm surface and he looked to travel well in the run but once he was let down, the wheels just started spinning. Much better suited here on top of the ground and had he drawn a better gate, he’d nearly be on top.
Race Three (13:15) : Segenhoe Stud Woodlands Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: All things being equal, I think 3 Almanzora (Bet Now: $2.50) just wins this. Very smart filly for Godolphin and Darren Beadman that won like a very good horse on debut at Warwick Farm before going to the Percy Sykes where she appeared to really struggle on the track behind Shoals. Trial win last week at Randwick was very good and she appears back on track.
Big Danger: 2 Debonairly (Bet Now: $3.70) is a talented youngster for the Waterhouse/Bott yard who was a heavy favourite three weeks back at Randwick but he just did a bit too much work on speed and felt the pinch late behind The Mighty Fed. Better off being allowed to roll and do his own thing. If that eventuates, he will look the winner at some stage.
Long Shot: 7 I Am Excited (Bet Now: $19.00) is a daughter of Snitzel on debut for the David Pfieffer yard. This is a well bred filly with the mum being a Stakes performer, and the breed should come to hand early, which looks the case off the back of some very very sharp trial efforts. Definite market watch.
Race Four (13:50) : Coolmore Denise’s Joy Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 10 Infra Dig (Bet Now: $21.00) is a talented type that resumes for Godolphin and Darren Beadman. Performed very well last time in despite showing signs of greenness at various stages. Two trials leading in have been quite encouraging, she goes well fresh and draws a lovely gate for Rachel Murray.
Big Danger: 3 Zumbelina (Bet Now: $10.00) looks the one on paper. Very good filly for Chris Waller who has been much better than what the form guide will say in two runs back from a spell. Bias was against her first up, then the track was too shifty in the James Carr but she stuck on very well. No excuses here for mine. If she brings her best, she wins.
Long Shot: 16 Geneteau (Bet Now: $35.00) resumes for Bjorn Baker and is the interesting runner here. She trials like Black Caviar but just can’t produce it on race day. She has trialled twice leading up to her return to racing and again has been impressive. If she can translate that to here, she would go close, but more often than not, she hasn’t. Rather just include her in exotics.
Race Five (14:30) : Inglis Guineas 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Mr Sneaky (Bet Now: $4.00) goes on top for me here. Classy three year old for the Freedman camp who took on the older horses a fortnight back at Caulfield where he was heavily backed and didn’t let his supporters down with a dominant win. 1400m on a big track looks perfect for him and he rates highly.
Big Danger: 2 Calanda (Bet Now: $4.40) …oh dear. I’m sorry if you backed him in the Hawkesbury Guineas and bringing up the nightmare that he had to endure down the straight. He was absolutely bolting but just couldn’t get a run and went to the line as if he was in a barrier trial. He only needs better luck here to take a power of beating.
Long Shot: 13 Just Dreaming (Bet Now: $21.00) is a smart filly for the Kris Lees camp who rises a bit in depth here but I think she can measure up. Ran in a Class 2 at Wyong last time out where she had a pretty soft run outside the speed then when asked for the big effort by Tommy, she found and drew clear late. Looks to have upside and despite more depth here, I think she’ll acquit herself well.
Race Six (15:10) : Yarraman Park Horsepwoer Luskin Star Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: Siding with the talented 2 Clearly Innocent, (Bet Now: $4.60), who scored an unbelievable win in this race last year. Had his first run for Kris Lees in the Gold Rush at Hawkesbury and though he might have only finished ninth of 11, the run was much better than what that reads. Up to 1300m with a more genuine tempo here is perfect and Bowman takes over.
Big Danger: 7 Sir Bacchus (Bet Now: $5.50) could well be the watch horse here. Resumed for Chris Waller over 1200m at Randwick off the back of some nice displays at the trials but he failed to flatter really behind Nieta, but I will say he did get held up late. Much better on top of the ground, and he has a fab second up record. Big improver.
Long Shot: 6 Old North (Bet Now: $7.00) comes through the Gold Rush at Hawkesbury where he was first up off a decent break. Had market support off the back of impressive trial efforts but the tempo was clearly against him, but he finished off okay late. He is a very hard horse to trust, but when he is right, he’s very good.
Race Seven (15:50) : Emirates Park Dark Jewel Classic 1400m:
Back Me: With normal luck, 1 Artistry (Bet Now: $4.40) just wins this. With normal luck, and a better judgement in riding tactics, she should have won the Godolphin Crown. Bowman just tried a bit too long to come to the outside and then duck back to the middle where she ran into dead ends. Should have won. She can, and I think will, atone here.
Big Danger: 2 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $9.50) won the Godolphin Crown and it was a lovely ride by Tye Angland that got the mare home. She really appreciated getting back on top of the track and reacted big time with a brilliant win, even allowing for hard luck stories behind her. We know the quality and class she has. Now she has that winning feeling, she can go on with it.
Long Shot: 10 Slightly Sweet (Bet Now: $34.00) could be the big improver here at odds. She resumed in the Godolphin Crown and just got too far back and held up in a race that really suited those that could build up momentum and were clear of trouble, which Slightly Sweet wasn’t. Showed in the Spring the quality she has, so she can win this for sure.
Race Eight (16:30) : Arrowfield Ortensia Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Nieta (Bet Now: $1.95) just picks herself here. High class mare for John Thompson who has been given a little break since resuming at Randwick on a testing track where she did a nit of work near the speed and was there to be beaten 200m out but like good horses do, she found another gear and drew clear late. Looks a star in the making and I think she can measure up here.
Big Danger: 9 Deploy (Bet Now: $6.00) is the very interesting runner here. This well bred gelding was the find of the Summer, winning four on the bounce in town, something that only Winx has done this season. Trial effort recently was very good and he is a bomb when produced fresh. Key threat for sure.
Long Shot: 3 Felines (Bet Now: $10.00) ran a beauty in the Galaxy before being freshened up and racing in the Gold Rush at Hawkesbury where the race developed into a real sprint home, which suited this mare to perfection given she is suspect beyond 1000m. That is the query here, but she’s hard fit, in form and is an absolute trier.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Artistry
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Clearly Innocent
VALUE: Race Four Number 10 Infra Dig
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 13
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 3, 6, 9
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