A strong card of racing will be run and won at Doomben on Saturday, where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed Falvelon Handicap (1200m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:27) : Secutor Securities Handicap 2220m:
Back Me: 2 Ongoing Venture (Best Odds: $3.40) let down strongly to win two back at the Sunny Coast before coming here where he again closed off hard late to run a close up second to Hot Saga. I am pretty confident he can turn the tables on that galloper, and that is the strongest form race leading into this.
Big Danger: 3 Our Boy Nicholas (Best Odds: $5.00) is clearly the best horse in the race, but his form is just a tad suspect. He ran in that race Hot Saga won, and he was ridden perhaps a touch too close to the tempo. He is best ridden with cover and has something to chase, and I think that should eventuate, and if indeed it does, he’ll go close.
Roughie: 1 Hot Saga (Best Odds: $5.50) won that race mentioned above and I just think Jeff Lloyd lifted the horse over the line late when he looked in trouble about 100m out. The track rating will be the key. If it’s wet, he’s a moral, but the likelihood of a dry track brings him right back to the rest of the field.
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Race Two (14:05) : Height 4 Hire Handicap 1650m:
Back Me: 7 Right Or Wrong (Best Odds: $1.75) has been outstanding at his past two outings, both wins and impressive each time, with the latest over 1615m here. Scratched from last Saturday due to the wet track, and he just looks so much better placed here.
Big Danger: 5 Honey Toast (Best Odds: $6.00) comes through the Sunshine Coast Cup where he worked home strongly from the back to run fourth to Timeless Prince, who ran a beauty last Saturday and was unlucky. He’ll love the step up in trip and should take some beating.
Roughie: 4 Trakstar (Best Odds: $8.50) was backed at odds to win that race mentioned above, but he got stuck wide early before pressing forward and really just had no luck when seventh to Gold Horizon, beaten under four lengths. He is up there with Von Costa De Hero in terms of following, but on his best form, he’d be awfully hard to hold out.
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Race Three (14:40) : Suez Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 6 Damn Fine (Best Odds: $7.00) debuts here for Rob Heathcoate. He is a son of Choisir out of the good mare Princess Qualo. No trials leading in, but he has the Heathcoate polish and should run well just based on that
Big Danger: 2 Itz Alrite (Best Odds: $4.80) resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back and closed off nicely late to run second to Mishani Sleuth, beaten narrowly and was unlucky too after missing the kick. With better barrier manners here, he can bounce back and get the job done.
Roughie: 9 Two Shoes (Best Odds: $6.50) debuted on her home track at Toowoomba back in November over 870m and showed dazzling early speed to spank her rivals. Trialled on February 2 and went about her business nicely I thought. Toowoomba youngsters have measured up well in recent times, and I am confident she can here.
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Race Four (15:20) : City Propery Services Plate (Class 6) 1050m:
Back Me: 10 Awasita (Best Odds: $5.00) attempted to lead all the way at Randwick on Australia Day but felt the pinch late to run fourth to class filly Kangarilla Joy. Massive drop in grade here, looks well placed and the firmer track looks very much ideal.
Roughie: 3 Heart Smart (Best Odds: $4.80) was well backed when running over 1110m here three weeks back and produced a lovely turn of foot and good grit to justify that market push. He should do no work again from the gate and will be strong late.
Big Danger: 9 Liberation (Best Odds: $9.50) drops big time in grade after contesting the Sunshine Coast Cup (1400m) last time out and really struggled on the heavy track behind Timeless Prince, who ran well last Saturday to frank the form. Back to 1050m looks perfect and despite drawing the car park, he should go close.
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Race Five (15:57) : Queensland Electrical Handicap (0MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Doula (Best Odds: $9.50) attempted to lead all the way over 1350m a fortnight back and looked the winner halfway down the straight but couldn’t quite fend off the challenge of Taltarni. I think back to 1200m suits, she’s hard fit and in form, so she can knock off the top tip with luck.
Big Danger: 7 Katy’s Son (Best Odds: $2.45) is a hulking son of Real Saga who won with a bit of class first up at Ipswich, really letting down and savaging the line with purpose. He has enormous upside fitness wise and has a lot of maturing to do. Hard to beat.
Roughie: 16 Reckless Abandon (Best Odds: $51.00) resumes here for Liam Birchley. He performed well during the Autumn/Winter without winning, but looks on target to run well fresh off the back of a handy trial effort at Deagon. He can sprint well fresh, so watch market moves.
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Race Six (16:37) : Business Success Group Falvelon Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Whiskey Allround (Best Odds: $4.00) has been excellent at his past two outings, both resulting in narrow seconds, firstly to Le Cap and then behind Dream Choice here a fortnight back. He is bursting to win another blacktype race and I think he gets his chance.
Big Danger: 1 Someday (Best Odds: $10.00) was having his first run in 15 months when running a game fourth in that Dream Choice race mentioned above. Two things will happen here; he’ll either train on and go close, or run flat second up. Class is a big factor also.
Roughie: The likelihood of a firmer track brings a horse like 7 Falino (Best Odds: $26.00) right into contention at good odds IMO. He ran behind Dream Choice in that race mentioned above and he just didn’t let down on the wet track. The key to his chances is the weather, and the forecast is for sunshine, which is good. He can threaten if the breaks go his way.
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Race Seven (17:17) : Adrenalinethoroughbreds.co.au Handicap 1650m:
Back Me: 1 I’m Belucci (Best Odds: $3.10) resumed in the Magic Millions Guineas (1400m) and had no hope against the on speed bias when finishing down the track behind Mahuta. He draws a lovely gate here and will love the step up in trip.
Big Danger: 8 Subsolar (Best Odds: $8.00) broke her maiden on January 20 at Ipswich and won with real class and authority. Trialled well at Deagon and immediately comes to town despite being nominated on a couple of occasions at the provincials.
Roughie: 11 Favoured Grace (Best Odds: $21.00) ran over the mile at Ipswich last time out and looked home with about 100m to go, but was nabbed right on the peg by Princess Charm. She is a month between runs, so fitness is the issue but Lloyd jumps back on.
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Race Eight (17:55) : Cardno Plate (Class 6) 1350m:
Back Me: 11 Binary (Best Odds: $10.00) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Team Hawkes, and did trial well at Rosehill on January 19, but is now with Kelly Schweida. Drawn wide, but he has the speed and class to overcome that and looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: 13 Mischievous Devil (Best Odds: $3.40) drops big time in grade after contesting the Sunny Coast Cup (1400m) where he sat on speed and stuck on well when running third to Timeless Prince, who ran a ripping race last Saturday without luck. Big drop in grade, draws well and only rises 0.5kg in weight.
Roughie: 6 Punta Norte (Best Odds: $8.50) resumed over 1110m here and worked home nicely late in that Heart Smart race mentioned above. He is similar to Lauterbrunnen in the sense he will be better over further, but that first up run was too good to dismiss.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 I'm Belucci
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Right Or Wrong
VALUE: Race Five Number 10 Doula
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 5, 7, 10, 14, 15, 16
Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 8, 11
Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 7, 11, 13
$50 Investment= 4.62% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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