A strong eight race card has been assembled for Kembla on Saturday, where the feature race is the Kembla Grange Classic (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (13:50) Tab Odds And Evens Mdn 1300m
4 Kirwan’s Lane (Bet Now: $4.50) on top in the opener. This John O’Shea gelding has been somewhat disappointing in his career because he has promised so much but at times has let punters down. Resumed over 1200m at Newcastle and liked the way he finished his race off from the back when fourth to Zenardini. Bowman on, fitter, up to 1300m and strikes a winnable race.
1 Pioneer (Bet Now: $2.90) does look hard to beat but gee he’s short enough at around $3 given there is a bit of depth to this maiden. Ran over 1200m here last time out when outside the speed and for mine, he had every chance to win. Just couldn’t quite get there. Was a month between runs as well so perhaps he’ll take improvement fitness wise from that outing.
The value here is clearly 9 Static (Bet Now: $7.00) for James Cummings. Debuted on the Beaumont track at Newcastle and she was a real eye catcher. Loved the way she finished her race off when third to Destiny’s Own after getting back off the speed in the run. Up to 1300m looks ideal and no doubt IMO she’ll be strong at the end.
Race 2. (14:25) Canadian Club Mdn Hcp 1600m
Bet of the program here IMO in 9 Segrill (Bet Now: $6.00) and really surprised $8+ was on offer for her. Wide no cover first up at Canterbury in a total forgive. Then raced at Hawkesbury last Saturday and didn’t have the clearest of paths in the straight but when she got clear, she really attacked the line. Senior jock on, 1600m, upside…really keen on her chances.
4 Highmaster (Bet Now: $5.00) has been pretty good in two runs back from a break for Gwenda Markwell. Led and just felt the pinch first up at Canberra before racing over 1400m here where he tried hard but clearly no match for a potential Stakes class animal in All Time Legend. Does no work from the gate and 1600m should be okay.
Doubt 10 Tic Tock Man (Bet Now: $8.50) can win here given he hasn’t won a race in 18 attempts but to be fair to him, he has placed on eight occasions and is generally around the mark, like he was over 1400m here when clocking good late splits behind All Time Legend in the race mentioned above. Bit surprised he’s longer odds than Highmaster, so for value outside Segrill, he is it.
Race 3. (15:05) Assett Professional Serv.-bm70 2400m
D-Day for 3 Corncrake (Bet Now: $4.00) IMO. Was really keen on him last start on the Beaumont track at Newcastle but he failed to fire a shot and was really disappointing behind Kiarra Rose. I’m thinking he’s just not a wet tracker, so back on much firmer footing here with Bowman on, bigger track…gets his chance to win, but this is last chance territory.
4 Frenzied (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing pretty well for the WaterBott team. Son of Americain who seems to race best when ridden back but with Hippo on, I suspect they’ll be going forward on him. His late splits were quite good last start at Canterbury and he’s crying out for more ground, which is what he gets this time around.
11 Notabadharada (Bet Now: $14.00) is the one that is clearly value here for the Lee camp. That race at Canterbury that Frenzied contested, this horse ran fourth and you could make a case he should have fought the finish out. Just had no luck in the straight and should have finished much closer. He’ll appreciate 2400m and for mine is a clear knockout chance.
Race 4. (15:40) D Webster 40th B'day (bm64) 1200m
4 Warfare (Bet Now: $3.30) looks the safe option. Team Snowden trains this colt, who ran at Canterbury last time out when held up nearer the inside before eventually getting clear and finding the line strongly behind a progressive animal in Electric Girl. Bigger track looks ideal and more often than not they fan at Kembla so he’ll get the gaps and get his chance.
9 Fifteen Rounds (Bet Now: $9.50) is a very interesting runner. Joe Pride trained gelding, who is first up, and his form overall doesn’t read great but he’s had a good long spell in readiness for this prep and has been tuned up with four barrier trials, plus the Bar Plates come off in the front so for mine, he’s a clear yard/market watch.
Doubt he wins, but for wider multiples, I’d be including 14 Nicof (Bet Now: $71.00). His best is certainly good enough to run a cheeky race at big odds. Had a freshen up prior to racing at Wagga last start when back and couldn’t get into the race. He’ll do no work from the inside gate and if they go silly in front, he’ll launch late.
Race 5. (16:20) Pfd Food Services (bm64) 1600m
Happy to back 4 Miss Jenny (Bet Now: $11.00) each way. Gwenda Markwell trains this mare, who ran over this track/distance just under two weeks ago and tried very hard on speed but couldn’t quite get there when second to the in form Baracus. Think she’s better with a bit of cover but she’s going well and each way at double figures, she’ll do me.
1 Nordic Lover (Bet Now: $9.00) is the one that appears early overs. Ran over 1550m at Canterbury last time out and really, if you were on, it was an absolute nightmare to watch. Was building the revs nicely and about to burst through but the gap closed and it ended up being a barrier trial. Better luck this time around and he’ll take some beating.
5 Celtic Love (Bet Now: $14.00) will make sure this is a truly run mile. Attempted to lead throughout over the mile at Gosford last start and she gave a really good kick in front, trying her guts out, but she was outgunned late by a progressive animal in Animate. She’ll kick forward from the barrier and prove a tough nut to run down.
Race 6. (16:55) Kembla Classic 1600m
I think 2 Missile Mantra (Bet Now: $3.40) is back on track and off her effort in the Surround, she should take some beating here. Resumption in the Light Fingers was poor, but the blinkers went on in the Surround and she ran a beauty in defeat when fifth to Probabeel. Given her record, she’s so well in at the weights and give in the track will be no issue.
Really keen to see 6 Game Of Thorns (Bet Now: $9.00) at 1600m for Kris Lees. This filly was massive in winning just under two weeks ago at Newcastle. She savaged the line from the back and while Koby on Cafe Royal sat up, Game Of Thorns still had to take advantage and she did. She’s a good one and confident she can measure up.
15 Pierro Rose (Bet Now: $81.00) is a WaterBott trained filly that had trialled up well prior to resuming over 1460m at Queanbeyan where she didn’t take on much and was expected to give them a spanking. She did so and was impressive in winning. Has always showed good ability and now her confidence is up, she can go on with it.
Race 7. (17:30) Bobs Platinum Hcp (c2) 1400m
If 2 Bottega (Bet Now: $5.50) is going to be a Carnival horse, he’d want to be putting this field away. Has somewhat gone off the boil since producing a couple of really impressive wins to start his career. Resumed at Rosehill over 1350m where he got back and found the line well without really threatening. Better suited here I think and at his best, he’s better than these.
6 Rover (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Fastnet Rock for Anthony Cummings who gets blinkers for the first time, which should really sharpen him up. Ran over the mile at Gosford last start where he was probing for an inside run and got it, but didn’t have full momentum to put them away when third to Animate. Back to 1400m is interesting but should get a good tempo in front.
Interested to see how 5 Mocambo (Bet Now: $15.00) goes. He is a handy three year old that resumes, having not raced since October 9 when placing on the Kenso track behind an above average mare in Maid Of Ore. He has trialled up well leading in and though 1400m is short of his best, he does have a touch of class about him.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Two Number 8 Segrill
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Missile Mantra
LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Miss Jenny
Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):
Leg One: 4, 5, 9, 14, 16
Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 10
Leg Three: 2
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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