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The Ascot Carnival continues this Saturday, where it is WA Champion Fillies Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (15:28) Arlec Australia (rs1mw) 1200m

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Back Me

4 Nowhiteflag (Bet Now: $2.00) for me. Todd Harvey trained gelding that was a dominant winner at this track/distance two weeks ago, leading throughout and running good late time in the process. Smaller field helps him get a soft lead to my eye and gets a jockey upgrade, somewhat, with Parnham taking over.

Danger

9 Ultimate Command (Bet Now: $8.00) is a talented youngster for Neville Parnham that takes on the older horses here but has a good racing style and should be better for the first up run when on speed and just feeling the pinch last 100m behind The Front Bar. A soft should see the 1200m be okay.

Long Shot

3 No Surrender (Bet Now: $15.00) is a son of Universal Ruler that resumes. He hasn’t raced since the early part of the Kalgoorlie racing season in August when on speed and trying hard, just failing to finish it off when second to Turbo Power. Think he’ll run a bold race here fresh.

Race 2. (16:08) Tabtouch-westspeed (rs0mw) 1400m

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Back Me

5 Megadon (Bet Now: $4.20) has found winning form at Geraldton and while he hasn’t really measured up properly in town before, now seems the right time given he is looking to make it three wins on the bounce and the big tick is that the stable finds Pike to steer. He’ll do me.

Danger

6 Snippy Miss (Bet Now: $9.00) is a query at 1400m but she has placed twice in five attempts at this track/distance. Ran over 1200m here last time out and battled on okay nearer the inside when fourth, though a bob of the head and she runs second. Should be around the mark once again.

Long Shot

10 Gold Merits (Bet Now: $41.00) is a Jim Taylor trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since July 29 at Northam when down the track and looking a tired horse. One trial to get ready but 1400m fresh tells me she’s forward enough. Market will tell you if she’s ready.

Race 3. (16:48) Amelia Park (bm72+) 1200m

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Back Me

The Colonel Reeves is the proper lead up for the Winterbottom, but this race could be a lead up as well. Good quality engaged. Have to be with 3 Wilchino (Bet Now: $3.50). Dan Morton has this mare absolutely flying at the moment. Won like Winx first up. Backed up a week later, and though not as impressive, she won again. This run will tell us if she’s indeed a Winterbottom horse is she best suited to 1000m.

Danger

7 Triple Missile (Bet Now: $2.25) is a very talented animal for Lindsey Smith that will be hard to hold out. Horrendous ride from Rawiller cost him the win last time out, instead running a narrow second to Wilchino. Loses Rawiller and gets Mitch Pateman steering. He’s an aggressive rider and won’t be waiting around this time. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

Claiming apprentice on, I think it’ll be handle bars down from the outset with 4 Ziebell (Bet Now: $81.00). They tried to hold him up fresh in the Wilchino race mentioned above and it backfired, tiring in the straight. Better for the run, up in trip, let him run in front and give them something to chase.

Race 4. (17:28) Heineken 3 (bm66+) 1400m

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Back Me

Going to speck 11 She’s God To You (Bet Now: $3.20). Resumed three weeks ago over 1200m here and worked home okay from the back behind impressive winner Angelic Miss, pulling up lame in the process, so the run had plenty of merit. Good second up record and a positive lead for me is stable finds Parnham to steer.

Danger

9 God Has Chosen (Bet Now: $2.35) looks hard to beat for Lindsey Smith. Unlucky run first up before making amends two weeks ago back at this track/distance, Pike giving him a sweet ride in transit and the horse duly bolted in. Harder here, but upside to come and in the right camp to keep winning.

Long Shot

Back to 1400m I find interesting with 3 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now: $7.00). Roy Rogers trained gelding that was a strong winner fresh at this track/distance. Then went to the mile last time and tried hard when a narrow second to the above average Playing Marika. Back to 1400m is the query, but he’s very genuine.

Race 5. (18:08) R J Peters Stakes 1500m

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Back Me

Looking at the ballot order, 3 Kaptain Kaos (Bet Now: $2.70) is 15th for the Railway, so you’d be all but certain he has a spot. Question is, is this a prep run for next week? He was backed as if he was Winx in the Northam Cup and pretty much won as the market suggested. The gate is tricky, but he’s a very genuine horse and will be strong at the end.

Danger

2 Platoon (Bet Now: $20.00) looks to be ticking along beautifully for the Kingston Town. I’m not sure he has the speed in the legs to win a Railway, but he’s come back well I feel. Just been lacking that turn of foot. He has a class factor here, which will carry him. Just whether he needs this run as well.

Long Shot

1 Neufbosc (Bet Now: $67.00) is certainly capable with his best. Reigning Perth Cup winner who hasn’t set the world on fire in recent times, but with due respect, overall, this is a weak RJ Peters line up, and he is the class factor. Not sure I could back him to win, but one for exotics.

Race 6. (18:50) Ascot Gold Cup 1800m

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Back Me

I’m with 9 Mr Delegator (Bet Now: $3.50). He is over a month between runs and steps up in trip, but you can’t ignore now impressive he was last time when winning over the mile, leading throughout and won as if it was a barrier trial. Has won up 2100m so 1800m no issue, lands on speed and will be hard to get past.

Danger

8 Midnight Blue (Bet Now: $3.90) does look to be a key Team Williams contender for the Perth Cup. Resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago and was okay late after getting held up when fourth to Temptacion. Staying at 1800m the knock but gets weight and has upside to come.

Long Shot

1 Paddy’s Shadow (Bet Now: $71.00) would love the track to dry right up given she loves firmer footing. Hasn’t raced since September 11 when wide no cover and tiring late in the Farnley. Tick over trial was a good piece of work and her best is certainly capable of measuring up.

Race 7. (19:25) WA Champion Fillies Stakes 1600m

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Back Me

2 Searchin’ Rocs (Bet Now: $3.50) looks hard to beat. Quality filly that ran in the Burgess Queen . Was a bit keen in the run and probably hit the front too early, leaving herself exposed for a swooper, which was indeed the case. I think with a bunny to chase, she’ll be more effective.

Danger

3 Buzzoom (Bet Now: $1.80) is the obvious threat. She was dominant late in the Burgess Queen, but as I said above, I think it was set up for her given Searchin’ Rocs had to make the early move and it just gave this girl the chance to wind into her, with help from a ripping Parnham steer. 1600m no issue and is a definite winning chance.

Long Shot

9 Flower In The Wind (Bet Now: $61.00) is in here with a shout. Strong maiden win from her last week over 1400m at Belmont, coming with a string finale from the back to win narrowly but impressively. Clearly a harder assignment, but gate one helps and a drop of rain won’t hurt her cause.

Race 8. (20:00) Colonel Reeves Stakes 1100m

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Back Me

The gate makes it tricky for 1 Elite Street (Bet Now: $3.10), but how can you ignore him. Jury was out after a failed Melbourne prep in the Autumn, but he has returned home and is back to his best with two wins on the bounce and has been dominant each time. With news that nothing from the East will be coming over, he looks to have this and a second Winterbottom at his mercy.

Danger

7 Stageman (Bet Now: $7.50) does look to be a key threat. Adam Durrant trained sprinter that has placed behind Elite Street in both runs this prep, each time hitting the line with purpose. Not sure where he gets to from the draw but he has the finale to cause problems.

Long Shot

6 Flirtini (Bet Now: $27.00) should appreciate more ground, which she gets here. 1000m both runs this prep have just been on the sharp side for her. The inside gate with her racing style could be tricky, but she is too good of a mare to pen and her best is good enough to win.

Race 9. (20:35) Crown Towers (bm66+) 1000m

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Back Me

The wide draw is a concern with 10 The Front Bar (Bet Now: $3.50), but she’s a promising filly for Adam Durrant. Resumed two weeks ago at this track/distance against her own age and was an impressive winner from off the speed under Pike, who remains on. If she overcomes the gate, she’s the one to beat.

Danger

2 This’ll Testya (Bet Now: $8.00) should appreciate the drop back in depth. Bumped into Wilchino a fortnight back at this track/distance and battled on okay but was never a threat to the in form Dan Morton mare. This looks more her level and with the claim, she does get in quite well.

Long Shot

8 Leica Jaguar (Bet Now: $19.00) is a son of War Chant for Neville Parnham that resumes. Hasn’t raced since August 7 at Belmont on wet ground where he was last in the run and made up ground without threatening behind Starfield Impact. Couple of trials, including one on Monday, suggest he’s ready to go.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Mr Delegator

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Searchin’ Rocs

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 11 She’s God To You

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 9

Leg Two: 2, 3

Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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