A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Cranbourne this Sunday for Cranbourne Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:30) Wilson Medic One Handicap (64) 1300m
2 Mr Deadline (Bet Now: $2.20) on top. The McEvoy team trains this three year old, who ran over 1200m at the Valley on Moir night and didn’t do a bad job in defeat behind Baracali after getting back near last in the run. Considerable drop in depth this time around and I think he can sit last in the run and prove too good for this lot, provided he holds that form from last time.
3 Debt’N’Deficit (Bet Now: $5.50) is a daughter of Foxwedge who was unwanted in betting when debuting at Seymour and her price would have doubled at least in run given she got a check and was back near last, but she produced a brilliant finale from near last to get up and score a big win. Depth there wasn’t great, but the same can be said for this race, and she has enormous scope.
4 Norma Stars (Bet Now: $4.60) will welcome the return to this sort of grade. Resumed with a strong maiden win at Seymour before racing down the Flemington straight where she was outclassed but far from disgraced behind impressive winner Wayupintehsky. On her home track, looks to potentially get a soft lead, and on her home track, she’ll take some beating.
Race 2. (13:00) No Fuss Event Hire Maiden Plate 1400m
I’ll take a punt on 9 Royal Crown (Bet Now: $18.00), who debuts for Mick Kent. This bloke trialled here on Monday and gee I liked the way he moved under no riding. On paper, it’ll read 7/14, beaten 2.5L, but he moved very well and wasn’t asked for an effort by Aitken. Draws to get decent cover and an ideal drag up into the race, and debuting on the home track, he is sure to be near ready re fitness levels.
4 Call Me Shamus (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a contender. Talented three year old for Phillip Stokes that resumes, having not raced since the early part of the Winter over 1400m at Flemington in a heat of the Taj Rossi Series where he was far from disgraced behind Rubisaki. Liked the way he went in a recent jumpout and 1400m fresh tells me enough work has been put in to win first up.
3 Bracken (Bet Now: $13.00) can be an improver here at odds. Struggled on the bog track on debut before being spelled. Resumed at Bendigo and was okay in defeat behind Order Of Fury, beaten just under six lengths, but the form out of it has been decent enough. Draws to get a lovely run from the gate and with natural improvement, he could well be a knockout chance.
Race 3. (13:35) Cranbourne Hyundai Maiden Plate 1200m
13 Zorro’s Dream (Bet Now: $3.00) looks a nice type for Mitch Freedman that debuts. He trialled here on Monday where he was tucked away behind the speed before finding clear air late and he looked to find the line very well under no pressure from Melham, who sticks for the debut, so a good lead here, and another tick for him is that he draws an inside gate, so should be handy and prove hard to hold out late.
4 I Am Bruno (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Richard Laming trained gelding that had trialled up okay prior to resuming at Mornington where he didn’t get much luck in the straight and should have finished closer, but highly doubt he threatens the winner Heyington Station, who looks a handy horse for the Stakes team. Better luck this time around and he can bounce back for sure.
14 Tantilizer (Bet Now: $10.00) is third up here so she should be closer to peak fitness. Tough run fresh at Mornington when wide no cover and sticking on okay to run third. She then went to Geelonn when again wide no cover and just dying on the run late to run fifth. She’s due for a change of luck but once again draws tricky, so interesting to see what she can do here.
Race 4. (14:10) Lofts Quarries Handicap (64) 2025m
2 Boomstock (Bet Now: $2.00) looks a little query at a strong ten furlongs but ability wise, he’s the best horse in the race I think. He ran over this trip at Moe last time out where Jamie Kah looked to give the gelding a 12/10 steer just off the speed and did everything bar lift the horse over the line, running a close third to Blandford Lad. Bursting to win and I think he gets his chance here.
The step up to 2000m should suit 9 Heir Of Tavistock (Bet Now: $6.50). He ran over the mile at Bendigo last time where he was tucked away behind the speed and took a little to get going but finished off with real purpose late to get up and get the win, charging to the line, suggesting 2000m will be fine for him. Just needs a bit of luck to go his way from the sticky gate.
8 Skyfire (Bet Now: $13.00) is potentially one to watch out for in those 3000m races at the Valley. He comes back to 2000m after racing over 2400m last time out at Mornington when attempting to make a long sustained run from last and was there to win but couldn’t sustain the run when fifth to Shepard. If he can take advantage of the inside gate, he’ll be a knockout chance at odds.
Race 5. (14:45) Frankston Sand Soil & Mini Mix Handicap (70) 1400m
2 Esposito Gold (Bet Now: $9.00) can run a bold race at odds. This mare found them a bit rich first up on the Kenso track in Sydney behind Connemara before going to Bendigo where she was good against the race pattern when fourth to Tides, beaten a couple of lengths but far from disgraced. Third up here, she should get a lovely run from the gate and should just about be at peak fitness.
3 Vanuatu (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Grahame Begg trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since June 8 over the mile at Flemington where she was at the end of a long prep and looked a tired horse behind impressive winner Heavenly Emperor. Trialled very well here on Monday and noteworthy she did it without blinkers, so interesting to see how she goes with them on.
9 Shandy (Bet Now: $5.50) is one I wouldn’t entirely dismiss. The Ellerton/Zahra stable trains this mare, who did plenty of work in the run when resuming over 1300m at Bendigo and rightfully faded out of the finish behind impressive winner Pretty Brazen. Provided that hard run hasn’t busted her, she finds a winnable race here and be a big improver at decent odds.
Race 6. (15:20) Hertz Handicap (70) 1600m
I’m keen on 3 Sir Kalahad (Bet Now: $10.00) running well here. Doug Harrison trains this gelding, who was near the speed over 1500m at Mornington last time and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the job done when fifth to Startegic Phil. I think he races best when on speed and I have him getting a very soft lead if Werner pushes the button, so keen on him against this lot.
The serious drop in depth looks a big tick for 1 Starouz (Bet Now: $4.00). Gave them a spanking at this track/distance two back before stepping up to 1700m at Caulfield where he was outclassed but far from disgraced behind Pushin Shapes. This looks more his level and I thin he can sit outside Sir Kalahad and that pair can control things. He’ll be hard to beat if that eventuates.
2 Nangawooka (Bet Now: $10.00) can mix his form but his best is good enough here. He won well at Sale three back before a close up fourth behind Starouz in the race mentioned above. Then went to Flemington where 1700m saw him out behind Wetakemanhattan. 1600m looks more his trip and Williams takes the ride. Just a matter of where he gets to in the run from the gate.
Race 7. (15:55) Highview Accounting Services Handicap (64) 1200m
3 Bonaparte (Bet Now: $2.35) is one of the hardest to beat. Market said he’d need the run when resuming at Ballarat and that’s how it panned out. Was on speed and gave a good kick but last bit, his condition just ran out when fourth to Gina’s Hope. He’ll take good improvement from that you’d like to assume and the big ticks for him are Melham going on and the Blinkers being applied first time.
1 Pickup (Bet Now: $2.90) The Pieces has been really disappointing this time in after trialling up brilliantly prior to the start of the prep. In saying that, this is one of the weaker races she has contested for a while so she gets her chance. Was well backed last time at Mornington but couldn’t finish it off behind Too Good Too Hard, who would be odds on here, so giving her one more chance.
11 Shoot For Coomah (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Richard Laming trained gelding that was hard in the market when resuming over 1200m on a bog track at Bairnsdale when near the speed a and fighting on well enough in defeat behind the then in form Everybody Dance. On his home track now and I think he’ll be much better suited on firmer footing. Knockout chance for sure.
Race 8. (16:35) Apache Cat Classic 1000m
If he runs up the resumption, 5 William Thomas (Bet Now: $2.40) wins. He resumed over 1100m at Caulfield and produced a brilliant turn of foot in the straight to absolutely blow them away and ran good time relative to the meeting. Could have easily lined up in the Schillaci with a spot in The Everest up for grabs, but tackles the feature sprint on the home track, down in the weights still, and generally improves deeper into the prep.
8 Tavisan (Bet Now: $4.20) has been given a little freshen up since running a shocker in the Chandler Macleod at the Valley behind The Inevitable, with the horse perhaps choking down late in the piece, so there were genuine excuses for the failure, which followed a sharp win at that track. His best is good enough to win, but how well has he done since last time out?
If you want some value for exotics, I’d be including 3 Thermal Current (Bet Now: $10.00). Old marvel for the Ellerton/Zahra stable that resumes and can pull out a run fresh, which is what he did last year when beaten narrowly by Runson. Liked the way he went in a September 26 jumpout at Flemington and from the gate, he should get a soft run and be strong late.
Race 9. (17:10) Cranbourne Cup 2025m
Keen on 3 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $5.50). He resumed over 1700m at Caulfield where he was back near last in the run in a race totally dominated by those on speed/rail but loved the way he closed off his race behind surprise winner Pushin Shapes. He should take really good improvement from that outing, up to 2000m…just hope the tempo is more genuine this time around.
7 Dr Drill (Bet Now: $2.80) isn’t the best horse in the race but he’s just about the most genuine. Tries his guts out every time he has stepped out, the latest seeing him score a gritty win over 1900m at Rosehill in what was a real sit/sprint. That scenario could well be on the cards if Masculino gets his own way, and Williams can take advantage of that and sit near the potentially slow speed.
4 Looks Like Elvis (Bet Now: $5.50) could be the forgotten horse here. He put together a sequence of wins in Brisbane, and was simply too good for them up there. So Bryan Dais tested him at Group l level in the Turnbull and he was very good despite being out of his grade behind King’s Will Dream. Gets back to a handicap level, draws well, hard fit, in form…ticks plenty of boxes.
Race 10. (17:45) De Bortoli Wines Handicap (78) 1400m
Tricky race to close out the meeting. I’ll go the way of 3 Revlis (Bet Now: $6.00) for the O’Sullivans. Landed some decent bets at odds when sprouting wings late to win two back at Bendigo before racing over 1400m at Caulfield where he just found the class a bit much behind a potential Group l horse in Harbour Views. That form surely has to hold up well enough for a race like this.
4 East Indiaman (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Team McEvoy trained four year old that was well backed when resuming over 1250m on the Parks track but I think he just copped a bit too much pressure in front and couldn’t go on with it when third to Kemalpasa, who is one of the form horses in Adelaide at the moment, so that is good form and now he’s fitter, he’s one of the leading chances.
5 Plot The Course (Bet Now: $31.00) is getting on in years but I reckon he’s going well enough to run a cheeky race fresh at odds. Eight year old resuming for Pat Trotter who hasn’t raced since pulling up lame over the mile here behind the then in form Mister Belvedere. Can sprint well fresh on his day and a recent jumpout here was more than encouraging. One for multiples.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 William Thomas
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 13 Zorro’s Dream
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 9 Royal Crown
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 11, 12
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg Four: 3, 4
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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