Brisbane racing heads to Doomben this Saturday for a strong program. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:48pm) : Ah Done Constructions Handicap (0MW) 1050m: Form Guide
Back Me: The slight drop back in trip should suit the Kris Lees trained Alpen Rose (Best Odds: $4.80), who ran over 1200m here last time out and didn’t really do a great deal when running fifth. Wiggins goes on from an inside gate, and this race isn’t overly strong.
Roughie: Simply Smart (Best Odds: $4.50) resumed three weeks back here and did a fair bit of work in the run on speed and he fought on alright I thought when third to Young Fun, who did run very well last Saturday. He draws a bit better here and Luke Dittman is one of the form riders in Brisbane at the moment.
Roughie: Starocity (Best Odds: $7.00) was well fancied to win a couple of weeks back at the Gold Coast over 900m here, and the son of Ferocity proved far too good for his rivals, winning by a space. Harder here, but he has come back in good order and is a definite threat.
Race Two (1:23pm) : Qantas Founders Museum Handicap 2030m: Form Guide
Back Me: Hard to tip against Hot Saga (Best Odds: $7.00), who ran over 2200m here last time out and swooped home from last to beat home Kaypers. The drop back to 2030m shouldn’t be an issue, and Lloyd sticks with him.
Big Danger: There’s plenty of negatives surrounding Lock’s Legend (Best Odds: $2.00), but it’s hard to knock his winning form because he has simply been very dominant. The negatives are that he rises 4kg in weight from last start, and he is untried beyond a mile. Concede on form that he is the one to beat, but those two factors will make sure I won’t be backing him.
Roughie: Hora Sexta (Best Odds: $16.00) ran at the Gold Coast and though he was paddling the last 100m, he did the job impressively enough. I don’t think he is a wet track horse, so the firmer surface here is ideal, he will be strong late and he has plenty of upside compared to his rivals.
Race Three (2:00pm) : Give Back Campaign Plate (Class 6) 1630m: Form Guide
Back Me: Harada Bay (Best Odds: $4.20) was excellent in defeat I thought last time out over this track/distance when sitting near last in a race dominated by the leader and eventual winner. Bigger field here should create a more genuine tempo and he looks one to beat.
Big Danger: Honey Toast (Best Odds: $3.50) drops back to the mile after scoring a gritty win over 2200m last start, besting home More Energy, who franked the form by winning last Saturday. He will be strong at the end, and despite drawing wide, he looms as a leading contender.
Roughie: Arctic (Best Odds: $13.00) has been ridden upside down at his past two outings, going forward from wide gates and fading out of the race late. Draws gate one here, and with a smother, he can certainly threaten in a tricky affair.
Race Four (2:38pm) : PFD Foods Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to take a chance with Vintage Moss (Best Odds: $6.50). She is on the quick back up after racing at the Sunny Coast last Sunday where she ran third to all the way winner Queen Of The Lochs. Vintage Moss did have her chance there, but I like she is on the quick back up, draws well and gets weight relief.
Big Danger: Didntcostalot (Best Odds: $2.30) led under his own steam last start and proved far too good for his rivals, scoring a dominant victory. Drawn a bit wide here, but he has great early speed and should spear over from the gate and prove tough to run down.
Roughie: Kempelly (Best Odds: $7.00) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday where he didn’t have a great deal of luck when fifth to inform galloper Steel Zip. Bit easier here and senior rider goes aboard. Definite improver with better luck.
Race Five (3:17pm) : Heart Of Australia Plate (Class 6) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Despite taking on the boys, I’m keen on the mare Notonyourlife (Best Odds: $3.50), who produced a dazzling turn of foot from the back to get the job done against the mares in very impressive fashion. Not easy taking on the boys, but she gets right down in the weights and the turn of foot is better than that of any others engaged here.
Big Danger: Beckham (Best Odds: $4.20) ran here a couple of weeks back and stuck to the task pretty gamely when finishing second to stablemate Chariot Of Gold. Drawn a bit tricky here, but the talent is there and it’s a winnable race.
Roughie: Lucky Lucre (Best Odds: $10.00) ran over the mile here last start and tried his guts out when second to Revitalise, who was well backed in betting at odds. Draws gate one here, and despite dropping back in trip, he will be strong late.
Race Six (3:57pm) : Outback Queensland Tourism Handicap (75) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Ashlee Marie (Best Odds: $5.00) is a talented filly who resumes here for Richard Laming. At her second start she won at Randwick before contesting the J J Atkins and she was far from disgraced behind Press Statement. No trials and drawn wide, but the class is there.
Big Danger: Sarisara (Best Odds: $2.50) is a Stakes performed mare for Rex Lipp who was last seen here during the Carnival running behind I’ve Got The Looks in the Juanmo. Recent trial win on her home track was very sharp and though her first up record is terrible, she looks forward enough to perform well here fresh.
Roughie: Pandora Charm (Best Odds: $11.00) is a tough mare for Barry Baldwin who is racing very well at the moment, but she just can’t quite crack it for a win, like last start when a close up second to impressive winner Notonyourlife. Drawn wide, but Fancourt rides the horse well and she should be in it for a long way.
Race Seven (4:37pm) : Winton Outback Festival Handicap (75) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mr Jetset (Best Odds: $6.00) has been given a six week freshen up after racing at the Sunshine Coast where he simply got too far back when fifth to Romanarma. He does tend to race best when produced fresh and is well weighted after the claim for Fancourt.
Big Danger: Passatorio (Best Odds: $7.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where he made up good ground in restricted room to finish fourth in Skip Course. I like the fact he is on the back up, Browne sticks and he draws well.
Roughie: Voodoo Blue Magic (Best Odds: $17.00) is also on the seven day back up after racing behind Pinch River last Saturday, and while he didn’t threaten, he stuck to the task alright. Draws to get a soft trip, and if he gets the right luck, he can produce a booming finish.
Race Eight (5:13pm) : Kangaroo Bus Lines Handicap 1050m: Form Guide
Back Me: Blue Desert Moon (Best Odds: $3.30) is a nippy type who has won both starts in impressive fashion, starting off over 900m at the Gold Coast before coming here and leading all the way again after being well supported. Gets 8kg weight pull on Wicked Intent, and I think that might be enough to get the horse home here.
Big Danger: Wicked Intent (Best Odds: $2.40) resumes for Chris Munce after a frustrating Winter prep, but it ended on the right note with a dominant win on Ipswich Cup Day. He should lead these easily, and 1050m first up is perfect.
Roughie: Tamrookum (Best Odds: $21.00) debuted over 1110m here back in April and he went alright I thought when running a close up third to impressive winner Faint Blaze. He wasn’t asked to do much in a recent barrier trial, and he should get a soft trip from the gate.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 11 Notonyourlife
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 10 Alpen Rose
VALUE: Race Two Number 4 Hot Saga
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 4, 7, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12
Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 13
Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 12
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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