The two day Scone Cup Carnival kicks off on Friday with an eight race card, highlighted by the $200,000 Listed Darley Scone Cup (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:20) : Cressfield Maiden Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 11 Danzon (Bet Now: $7.00) is the big watch here. Daughter of Animal Kingdom on debut for Arrowfield and Paul Messara. She looked to trial sensationally last year at Muswellbrook and was nominated to run in town on debut shortly after but the stable pulled the pin. Debuts on her home track during Carnival time, she’ll be wound up.
Big Danger: 4 Deceptacon (Bet Now: $1.80) was backed as if unbeatable when debuting at Canterbury but gee she let her supporters down badly. Looked to get an easy time of it on speed but faded badly over the final 150m. Back to 1000m and back in depth should suit and off her trial efforts, she is above average.
Long Shot: 2 Luck’s A Change (Bet Now: $26.00) is a son of Bradbury’s Luck on debut for the Kristen Buchanan stable. He had two trials during the Summer months, where he looked pretty good to the eye. Tipped out and trialled again last week at Wyong where he looked sharp in running a close up third. Draws well, I think he can measure up.
Race Two (12:55) : Pages Maiden Plate 1300m:
Back Me: 14 Cymbalism (Bet Now: $3.50) is a smart filly for the Chris Waller yard who has had two career outings, both coming at Canterbury. Both have looked strong maidens on paper, the latest resulting in a fourth to stablemate Noire. Third up now, so she should be ready to show her best in a pretty good contest.
Big Danger: 9 Star Of Monsoon (Bet Now: $2.10) does look the obvious but I can’t dive in at that price. He was a bit unlucky I thought last time out in the Hawkesbury Guineas but I am not sure 1400m is his go. Back to 1300m and back to maiden grade does suit…but as I said, he is poison odds. Still, a threat.
Long Shot: 5 Kijito (Bet Now: $16.00) is a nice enough type for the Kris Lees yard who comes here hard fit and in pretty decent form. Ran over 1150m at Cessnock where he got back and closed off nicely late. Stable have a very good strike rate when sending horses to Scone, draws well and gets the claim for Rachel King.
Race Three (13:35) : Inglis 2YO Challenge 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Excelamour (Bet Now: $2.70) is a nice filly for Kris Lees who looks one of the leading contenders here. Two starts for two seconds, the latest coming over 1000m at Muswellbrook where she got back and worked home with purpose behind Leaven Of Malice. The debut run behind Silence looks very good for this.
Back Me: 11 Gottogo (Bet Now: $11.00) had really good market support when debuting at Newcastle last Saturday over the short course and while she didn’t win, I thought her run was solid. Stuck near the inside without a great deal of room, so I think she’ll be better off for that and is drawn to get much clearer running now.
Long Shot: 14 Iceland (Bet Now: $19.00) is a daughter of Time Thief on debut for the Brett Cavanough yard. Formerly with the Waterhouse/Bott yard who trialled at the official 2YO trials at Randwick in September when third to Chain Of Fools. Now with Cavanough and I think she has to be respected big time here in a tricky affair.
Race Four (14:10) : Newgate Handicap (Class 1) 1600m:
Back Me: 11 Only Choice (Bet Now: $8.00) is a talented gelding for the Kurt Goldman camp who won with a bit of arrogance in his maiden at Orange before going to a Randwick Highway over 1400m where he couldn’t quite let down on the heavy track. Firmer surface and up to the mile looks perfect and I think he has scope/upside.
Big Danger: 7 Laszlo (Bet Now: $9.00) isn’t one of mine and not the most reliable but he does find a race where he could surprise in. Ran over 1400m a tick over three weeks back at Newcastle and couldn’t really come on behind Level Eight in a race that wasn’t run to suit. Fast run mile looks ideal and he should get good cover from the gate.
Long Shot: 16 Makfi Lass (Bet Now: $15.00) is a handy filly for the Brett Cavanough yard who will appreciate the step up in trip. Ran over the 1400m at Newcastle last time out where they walked in front and gave nothing from the back a look in, which included Makfi Lass. Quickly to 1600m on her home track is ideal, and no doubt she will be ready to go given it’s the stables first Carnival on the new home track.
Race Five (14:45) : Widden Stud Handicap (Class 1) 1100m:
Back Me: 12 Suncraze (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the good thing of the Scone Carnival. Very good three year old that resumes for the Melanie O’Gorman yard. Won like a star on debut at Dubbo in August before being tipped out. Ran twice last prep and should have won both times but bad beginnings cost him dearly. That looks rectified from what his barrier trials and he looks spot on. Only bad luck beats him.
Big Danger: 1 Cadogan (Bet Now: $6.00) is the big watch for me here. I was really keen on him during the Spring/Summer but he let me down badly with some real greenness and a lack of race sense hurting him bad. Trial recently was good and while I think Suncraze should be winning, I think this horse has to be kept very safe.
Long Shot: 9 Settlers (Bet Now: $34.00) put behind him a frustrating run of outs when breaking the maiden tag over 900m at Newcastle last time out, aided by a peach from RT who had the gelding tucked behind the speed before getting clear and finishing off with purpose. Up to 1100m looks ideal and draws a soft draw.
Race Six (15:20) : Turangga Farm Handicap (Class 2) 1300m:
Back Me: 8 Sisken (Bet Now: $3.90) on top for me here. Talented filly for Godolphin and Darren Beadman who resumed with a spank job of her rivals first up at Newcastle before going to Canterbury where she looked gone at the top of the straight but kept finding under Tommy Berry to get the win. Third up now, so she should be ready fitness wise and rates highly.
Big Danger: 5 Palladian (Bet Now: $5.50)had confident market support last Wednesday over 1100m at Warwick Farm where he tried hard near the speed and looked the winner for a few moments but was nabbed late by Good Time Charlie. 1300m would be a risk, but he was coming again on the line last week, so I think he will be strong here.
Long Shot: Ah 6 Dixie Chick…(Bet Now: $5.50) what do we do with her. Arguably should have won first up at Newcastle before being a month between runs at Canterbury a tick over two weeks back where nothing went right for her again. This is the easiest race she has contested in some time, so this is D-Day for her.
Race Seven (15:57) : Darley Scone Cup 1600m:
Back Me: I think there is value here in the shape of 4 Famous Seamus (Bet Now: $41.00). Did a pretty good job first up in the All Aged before going to the Hawkesbury Cup where the race shape just didn’t suit him. He is not a sit/sprint type. He prefers to get off the pace in a truly run affair and close off. If that can eventuate here, he’ll run a great race at odds.
Big Danger: 6 Pajaro (Bet Now: $11.00) is the defending champion and looks on target to defend the title. It’s been a typical target prep by Team Snowden. First two runs this time in have been good, eye catching, and with upside left. They are the best stable at targeting races and are lethal with their runners when produced third up. Loved his closing effort in the Hawkesbury Cup and rates highly here.
Long Shot: The tempo of the race didn’t suit 2 Mighty Lucky (Bet Now: $17.00) in the Hawkesbury Cup but under the circumstances, I thought he ran quite well in defeat to be beaten just under three lengths. And also perhaps he was a bit flat after a brilliant return effort in the Hall Mark. Be wary of the third up bounce back.
Race Eight (16:35) : Pryde’s Easifeed Country Cup (85) 1400m:
Back Me: 13 Star Reflection (Bet Now: $4.00) is a talented mare for Kris Lees who was a month between runs when racing at Randwick on Anzac Day where she got back in the run and came home hard to just miss out on picking up Military Machine. This is pretty much a better class Highway, and this mare has very strong city form.
Big Danger: 17 Not For Export (Bet Now: $19.00) arguably should have won the Country Championship Final at Randwick when back near last and badly held up. His two runs since have been great, including a Highway placing at Randwick before getting too far back at Dubbo. Fast run 1400m looks perfect for this horse and I can him savaging the line late.
Long Shot: 12 Mossgiel Ruby (Bet Now: $31.00) has put together a fab prep this time for Matthew Robinson. Won two on the bounce in impressive fashion before going to Warwick Farm where she ran well but just lacked the class I think behind Wahng Wah. This looks more her level and she does get much needed weight relief.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 12 Suncraze
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 14 Cymbalism
VALUE: Race Seven Number 4 Famous Seamus
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 14
Leg Four: 5, 7, 12, 13, 17
$50 Investment= 14.28% of the dividend if successful
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