The Longines Golden Slipper Carnival kicks off this Saturday with Coolmore Classic Day, and the Group l feature race for the females has attracted a high quality field, headed by top class mare Lucia Valentina. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:20) : Sky High Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Magic Hurricane (Best Odds: $3.40) was given a pretty plain ride from Buick last time out in the Chipping Norton (1600m) where he bungled the start and then was hunted forward which clearly isn’t his go. Third up now, and with the two key runners out, he is the best of these and he gets the services of Avdulla.
Big Danger: 7 Sir John Hawkwood (Best Odds: $4.20) resumes here for David Vandyke after a slogging second to Vilanova in the Tatts Cup (2400m) on New Years Day at Randwick. He has been nommed to run a couple of times, but he has trialled well twice leading in, including a third over stablemate Cosmic Cube, who won the National Sprint at Canberra on Sunday. He can run a cheeky race.
Rounghie: 4 Grand Marshal (Best Odds: $12.00) was one of the better runs of the beaten brigade in the Chipping Norton, making up a bit of ground very late in the race behind Winx on a day where it was near impossible to make up ground. He will be better over further and is another that is well weighted, and for mine he is the big improver.
Race Two (13:00) : Cafe Culture + Insitu Pago Pago Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I think if 2 Mount Panorama (Best Odds: $3.20) jumps cleanly here, he’ll be winning. His effort in the Silver Slipper (1100m) was unbelievable given he bombed the start again, and badly, yet travelled up to win the race with 250m to go, but just died on the run late. World class rider aboard, draws well but as I said, the barrier manners are the concern.
Big Danger: 1 Souchez (Best Odds: $3.80) resumed in the Skyline (1200m) and was wide no cover for the entire trip so he had every right to drop out, but he kicked on strongly to run a game third to Good Standing, beaten just over three lengths. Stable rider goes aboard, gate one, fitter and was impressive in winning here on debut late last year.
Roughie: Very interested to see how 11 Bray (Best Odds: $101.00) steps up here. Debuts for Albury trainer Brett Cavanough who comes here off a trial placing behind the handy older galloper Chasing Liberty, and the time was pretty good. Bred to get over further, but stable doesn’t send them to town for nothing, so I’d watch market moves.
Race Three (13:35) : Bede Murray Magic Night Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Calliope (Best Odds: $3.30) was sent to Melbourne by Godolphin in search of Blue Diamond, but it was clear in the Prelude behind Samara Dancer that she didn’t handle the track. Returns to Sydney and she should take some beating her despite the setback from being scratched last weekend where she was crunched in betting. Should go very close here.
Big Danger: 5 Prompt Response (Best Odds: $2.70) debuted on Cup Day at Flemington where she sat near the speed and stuck to the task very gamely when running second to impressive type Concealer, who did beat home Calliope in that Prelude race mentioned above. Trialled well here on February 19 and stable is just warming to the task with their youngsters.
Roughie: 1 Twist Tops (Best Odds: $15.00) was a tough winner of the Inglis Classic before going to the Sweet Embrace when sitting back in a slowly run race yet worked home with purpose when fourth to Scarlett Rain. She has been up for some time, and I don’t think she is a Slipper horse, but at this level, she can be very competitive.
Race Four (14:10) : APN Outdoor Handicap (85) 1900m:
Back Me: Going for some value in the shape of 7 Napoleon (Best Odds: $41.00). He trialled well prior to resuming at Hawkesbury where he got a long way back in the run and was just run off his legs late when running fourth to Crosley Hotshot, beaten just over four lengths. Up to 1900m is ideal, has enormous upside and has run well at Rosehill previously.
Big Danger: 10 Self Esteem (Best Odds: $7.00) ran over 1800m here a couple of weeks back and lengthened out very nicely over the concluding stages to win impressively albeit narrowly. Drops 2.5kg from that outing, stable apprentice takes over and will do no work from the gate.
Roughie: 11 Hierarchal (Best Odds: $15.00) comes through that Self Esteem race where he had to lump the big weight and just couldn’t get into the race from the back. This is the sort of race Anthony Cummings loves- a younger horse out of his depth and down in the weights. He has the potential to be a Derby contender, so I’d watch market moves closely.
Race Five (14:50) : Smooth FM Maurice McCarten Stakes 1100m
Back Me: 2 Craftiness (Best Odds: $5.00) resumed over 1000m at Randwick on February 6 and stuck on quite gamely when second to Felines, who ran a very solid fifth to English in the Challenge last weekend, so the form reads well. More upside with Craftiness and he is lethal when produced second up. Hard to beat for sure.
Big Danger: 5 Alberto Magic (Best Odds: $2.50) creates plenty of interest here. He is a really talented gelding that resumes for Allan Denham. He had two runs during the latter part of the Autumn last year where he bolted up in two runs. Been given a good break, but he looks ready to rock and roll after two very sharp trial wins. Hardest test to date here, but he is very likable.
Roughie: 3 Bachman (Best Odds: $6.50) resumes here for Gerald Ryan after three runs during the Summer, with the highlight being the Goldmarket (1300m) win on Boxing Day at the Gold Coast. He then ran in the Magic Millions Cup and was even behind Lucky Hussler. Recent trial here was very good behind Counterattack, runs well here and was a bomb when winning first up last time in.
Race Six (15:30) : Cellarbrations Pharlap Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: 5 Old North (Best Odds: $2.50) was very impressive in winning first up at Warwick Farm, sitting back in the run before letting down strongly to win quite impressively. The stable said immediately afterwards that he is a blacktype horse, and that is something Godolphin doesn’t normally do. Aiming towards the Derby, but he has enormous upside and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 7 Sacred Eye (Best Odds: $4.40) is the interesting runner. She is a crack filly for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who resumed in the Vanity (1400m) where she tried hard but she was left in front and that really isn’t her go. Well weighted given her record, Prebble on…should take some beating.
Roughie: 3 Torgersen (Best Odds: $7.00) was very good during the latter part of the Spring and Summer, but his two runs this time in haven’t filled me with great confidence, the latest in the Hobartville (1400m) here behind Press Statement. This looks his level, and he is a horse who can sharply improve with the slight drop in depth.
Race Seven (16:10) : Coolmore Classic 1500m:
Back Me: I am all over 7 Azkadellia (Best Odds: $4.00) here. This star mare was super in winning the Mannerism (1400m) last time out at Caulfield when wide throughout yet finished best to nail them on the line. Form held up last Saturday with Wawail winning at Flemington. She will be winning a Group l sooner rather than later, and I think she can do that here.
Big Danger: 12 Ghisoni (Best Odds: $4.60) is a star filly for Godolphin who rises sharply in depth and grade after spanking her rivals first up in the Surround Stakes (1400m), aided by a lovely ride from Macca. Three year old fillies haven’t really contested this race in some time, but they have a tidy record in it, and the stable don’t throw them in the deep end unless they can perform at a high level.
Roughie: Best roughie in the race for mine is clearly 10 Slightly Sweet (Best Odds: $18.00). Her two runs this time in have been excellent against the bias and tempo. She is looking for this sort of trip, meets Solicit 4.5kg better at the weights and the $26 on offer earlier in the week looks tremendous overs. Look for her to charge late if the tempo is on, which I am sure it will be.
Race Eight (16:50) : Ajax Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: If you backed 2 Generalife (Best Odds: $4.40) in the Liverpool City Cup (1300m), it was just a nightmare to watch. Had no luck at all in the straight when appearing to be bolting and really should have won. He has a fabulous record at Rosehill and should be cherry ripe fitness wise. Looks the one to beat and one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: 7 Kool Kompany (Best Odds: $8.50) was another eye catcher in that race mentioned above. He was back and wide on a day where it was hard to make up ground out there, but his effort was very good. I think he is a horse who could be a contender up north during the Winter Carnival, but having said that, he is very good and can easily win this.
Roughie: 3 Excess Knowledge (Best Odds: $21.00) is the very interesting runner. This classy galloper for Gai was last seen in the Melbourne Cup where he was leading with about 300m to go but just died on the run to run seventh. Loved his recent trial at Randwick on February 19 where he closed off strongly under no pressure at all. He is going to run a ripping race fresh.
Race Nine (17:30) : TAB More Than Just Winning Handicap (85) 1350m:
Back Me: 2 Lady Le Fay (Best Odds: $7.00) is a very interesting type. She resumes here for Chris Waller after a couple of promising runs in the Spring, with the first run being a third to subsequent Group l winner Good Project. Didn’t mind the way she trialled here recently behind Bull Point, so she is a top chance.
Big Danger: Gee I am really keen to see how 10 High Midnight (Best Odds: $13.00) goes. She is a quality filly for James Cummings who was the pick of the triallers at Randwick on March 4 when bolting up to win under little pressure. Had she drawn a decent gate, I’d be all over her, but still, she is a leading chance.
Roughie: 4 Hollywood Bound (Best Odds: $8.50) resumed over this track/distance three weeks back and stuck to the task very gamely when running a close up third to stablemate Religify, beaten just under two lengths. He had the dream run behind the leader and eventual winner, and loomed to win, but fitness just gave way late. He normally takes a few runs to find his best, but that first up effort was just too encouraging to ignore here.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Generalife
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Azkadellia
VALUE: Race Nine Number 2 Lady Le Fay
Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Leg Two: 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11, 16
$50 Investment= 3.96% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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