‘Super Saturday’ suits Flemington this weekend with an absolute bumper card of racing assembled, with two Group l events highlighting the afternoon; The Lexus Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and Australian Cup (2000m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:40) : TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I was really keen on 1 Concealer (Best Odds: $3.50) in the Blue Diamond but she let me down badly with a pretty disappointing ninth to Extreme Choice. I will put that down to her racing flat second up after a super fresh effort. Won down the straight impressively on Cup Day, and provided she turns up at her normal standard, she’ll take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 5 Soviet Secret (Best Odds: $4.40) was well backed when resuming in the inglis Classic (1200m) at Randwick when looming to win but just died on the run late when running second to Twist Tops. Form out of the race is a touch suspect, but her recent trial at Cranbourne this week was very good and she just has upside only.
Roughie: 10 Joan Constance (Best Odds: $41.00) debuted at Bendigo a couple of weeks back and tried hard but was no match for the impressive winner Meridian Star in a race that had the highly touted Overstep and handy Godolphin galloper Pyx Chamber. She is another that looks to have plenty of upside and stable is having a tidy run at the moment.
Race Two (13:15) : MSS Security Sires’ Produce Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Going with the Hayes/Dabernig colt 5 Seaburge (Best Odds: $4.60). The stable nominated this horse as their top pick for the Blue Diamond but he was an emergency and couldn’t gain a start. He looks a very talented type who will eat up the 1400m and didn’t have the gutbuster in the Blue Diamond, which is always an advantage in this race.
Big Danger: 8 Hot Dipped (Best Odds: $4.60) is the interesting runner here. This unbeaten filly from Tassie for Brendan McShane comes through a dominant win on Launceston Cup Day in the Gold Sovereign (1200m) where she sat off speed and just pounced for a dominant victory. The times suggest she can measure up and any filly that is three from three has to be respected.
Roughie: 2 Jackson (Best Odds: $8.50) resumed in the Talindert (1100m) here and worked to the line strongly late in the race behind Weatherly, who went on to run well against the tempo in the Todman last week so the form reads well, up to 1400m is perfect and Oliver rides.
Race Three (13:55) : Goodwood Racecourse Trophy 1100m:
Back Me: Going for some value in the shape of 5 Black Vanquish (Best Odds: $17.00). He raced in some hot races during the Spring, and while he didn’t win, on a couple of occasions he was far from disgraced. Loved his jump out last Friday here and his best form is on his home track, which is here. I think he looks great value in an open race.
Big Danger: 2 Brockhoff (Best Odds: $4.20) was very impressive in winning first up at the Valley before going to Caulfield and the Zeditave where he was wide all the way and stuck on very well when a close second to Santa Ana Lane. Form around him is outstanding and he should be at peak fitness now third up from a spell.
Roughie: 3 Sooboog (Best Odds: $26.00) was an alarming drifter when racing at the Valley a couple of Friday nights back and that was spot on as the colt was pretty much non-competitive when last to Aunty Mo. Has since been to the jump outs here and well I thought last Friday. He has been costly to follow, but if he turns up with his best form, he’d go close.
Race Four (14:30) : Incognitus Blamey Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: I think whatever money you have, just put it on 5 The United States (Best Odds: $4.60). His first up effort in the Futurity (1400m) was unbelievable given he bombed the start by several lengths, took off halfway home, was widest on the turn yet still finished the race off better than anything. Bowman jumps on and he is near unbeatable when he combines with Lloyd Williams runners, and is 1/1 on this horse. Just wins.
Big Danger: 2 Stratum Star (Best Odds: $2.60) also comes through the Futurity where he was very good in defeat behind Turn Me Loose where he loomed to win, but just couldn’t quite peg back the margin on the kiwi star. Flemington mile looks perfect, Zahra sticks and he draws to get a lovely sit just off the speed. Looks the main, and perhaps only threat.
Roughie: 10 He Or She (Best Odds: $6.50) was well backed to win the Peter Young (1800m) where the stable was heading towards the Australian Cup with him, but he was very disappointing behind Bow Creek. Back to the mile is ideal, slight drop in depth, Williams rides, draws well and should be ready fitness wise now he is third up.
Race Five (15:10) : TAB Kewney Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Big, big watch on 3 Badawiya (Best Odds: $5.50) here, who resumes for Mick Price. This classy filly hasn’t raced since running third to Stay With Me in the Thousand Guineas (1600m), where she was superb in defeat. Loved what I have seen from her at the Caulfield jump outs and she looks ready to rock and roll first up.
Big Danger: 2 Don’t Doubt Mamma (Best Odds: $5.00) resumed in the Vanity (1400m) here and was given a lovely steer from Dwayne Dunn to get the job done narrowly but impressively. Form from that race is a touch suspect, but there is plenty to like about her and does drop 2kg in weight from that last start triumph, so she ticks the boxes.
Roughie: 9 Labdien (Best Odds: $41.00) has been given a slight freshen up since sprouting wings to get the job done over 1200m at Moonee Valley under the lights. She has always given the impression she will eat up a further trip, and Chris Waller doesn’t throw them in the deep end unless they are capable of measuring up, and she draws to be out of trouble and ambush late.
Race Six (15:50) : Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Chautauqua (Best Odds: $2.60) just looks the winner here. His effort to win the Lightning (1000m) here first up was that of a world class sprinter, perhaps the best in the world. He is better suited at 1200m and given his record, he only has to carry 58.5kg against this lot and really, only bad luck will see him getting beat here, and that is the only reason he has been beaten over the past 18 months.
Big Danger: 7 Churchill Dancer (Best Odds: $19.00) is a straight track specialist who has been freshened up since running a game second to Holler in the Australia Stakes (1200m) at the Valley. That form has been franked of course with Holler winning the Group l Canterbury Stakes (1300m) last Saturday. Tumbles 6.5kg in weight from that outing, he draws to be out of trouble and he will be in it for a long way.
Roughie: 8 The Quarterback (Best Odds: $26.00) was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), charging home from last to run a close up sixth. He is another who loves racing down the straight, only carries 52kg and he has a lethal finish on him. Not sure he can win, but he is a must for exotics.
Race Seven (16:30) : Australian Cup 2000m:
Back Me: Sticking fat with 9 Rising Romance (Best Odds: $8.00). This mare has been outstanding in the two lead ups to this race, the Orr (1400m) and Peter Young (1800m). She worked home nicely in the Orr then had no luck at all in the Peter Young when appearing to be bolting. Flemington 2000m looks perfect and last time she was at the track/distance, she ran a very game second to Gailo Chop in the McKinnon.
Big Danger: 6 Bow Creek (Best Odds: $3.30) has been the obvious horse from the two races mentioned above, and his win in the Peter Young was just high class and dominant. His only 2000m run came overseas when splitting Melbourne Cup performer Kingfisher and It’s Somewhat. Gives the impression he will eat up the 2000m and is the one to beat.
Roughie: Best value in the race for mine is clearly 3 Extra Zero (Best Odds: $41.00). His effort behind Assign at Caulfield last time out was outstanding given he was back near last in a slowly run race. He ran a beauty in this race last year and looks to be going better this time around. He loves racing at Flemington and I will be shocked if he isn’t in the money somewhere.
Race Eight (17:10) : Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Miss Rose De Lago (Best Odds: $2.80) looks the leader here, so I’ll go with her. She resumed in the Mannerism (1400m) where she tried hard on speed but just felt the pinch late when a close up third to Azkadellia, who I am keen on in the Coolmore. Second up at the Flemington mile is ideal and from the gate, Oliver can just take his time getting over and hopefully dominate from the front.
Big Danger: 10 Anaphora (Best Odds: $8.50) also comes through the Mannerism where she sat midfield in the run and pretty much just held her spot to the line when fifth to Azkadellia, beaten 1.7L. That was her first real crack at that sort of level and it was a more than satisfactory result. Flemington mile should be ideal and she will be strong late.
Roughie: 4 Dig A Pony (Best Odds: $17.00) ran over this track/distance three weeks back where she got back in a slowly run race and worked to the line strongly very late in the piece when fourth to All Cerise in a race where the form has really stood up, albeit is a couple of levels lower in depth than the Mannerism. In saying that, this mare is hard fit and Dunn sticks.
Race Nine (17:45) : My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Yesterday’s Songs (Best Odds: $4.40) ran down the straight here three weeks back and worked home well with purpose when fourth to We’ve Got This, beaten 2.5L. Up to 1400m and getting around a bend is ideal, fitter, draws well and Oliver sticks. Looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: 2 Tried And Tired (Best Odds: $5.00) comes through the Rubiton (1100m) at Caulfield where he was backed at odds to win but was just run off his legs behind the speedy Heatherly, who went on to place in the Oakleigh Plate. This horse is better suited at 1400m and back to Flemington is a big tick, so I am tipping sharp improvement.
Roughie: 10 Master Zephyr (Best Odds: $17.00) is the really interesting runner here. He is a very good stayer for Darren Weir who is probably going to be a moral in the Warrnambool Cup in a couple of months, but he can sprint well here at 1400m for sure, and I like that Dunn remains on. Watch for market moves and if there is any support, I want to be on.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Chautauqua
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 5 The United States
VALUE: Race Three Number 5 Black Vanquish
Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Leg Four: 2, 6, 8, 9, 10
$50 Investment= 40% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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