A strong card of racing has been assembled for Randwick on Saturday, where the feature race is the third of the big mile races at Randwick, the Group 2 Villiers Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:40) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: Rule The River (Best Odds: $2.60) has been excellent this time in, winning both runs, the latest being at Warwick Farm where she had to overcome a difficult passage and an alarming betting drift. She looks Stakes class and will challenge Festivity very strongly provided she doesn’t give away too much of a head start.
Big Danger: Holy Delusions (Best Odds: $7.00) ran over this distance at Rosehill a couple of weeks when resuming and she looked very unlucky when a close up third to I Am Zelady. That mare was wide no cover, so it’s hard to make up excuses, but on face value, had Holy Delusions got a clear path, she would have won. Her last Randwick run resulted in a second to Echo Gal, who will be a leading contender in the Razor Sharp. If the speed is on, she’ll be charging late, but I am not sure if the speed will be on.
Roughie: The knockout runner here could well be Gocup Belle (Best Odds: $7.50). She was ridden off the pace last start at Canterbury when a close up third to Man Of Distinction and Hit The Mark, with the latter running well last night. Gocup Belle is better when leading, and the lead looks to be hers on a platter. If she can pinch a cheap sectional, she’ll take beating.
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Race Two (13:20) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1400m:
Back Me: Really keen on Bank On Henry (Best Odds: $6.50). Blind Freddy could see he was the clear unlucky runner in the Highway race at Rosehill a fortnight back behind Royal Jackpot. He got badly chopped out 300m out before getting to the outside and savaged the line late. Should have won, and I am pretty confident he can redeem himself here.
Big Danger: After All That (Best Odds: $4.60) was heavily backed when racing over 1200m at Gosford last time out where he did a bit of work to sit on speed yet kicked on very strongly to win narrowly but impressively. Little query at 1400m, but I think he can get it if he gets cover and a drag into the race.
Roughie: Dashie De Luxe (Best Odds: $16.00) was another unlucky runner in that Highway race Bank On Henry contested, getting badly held up behind the tiring leaders and was never really clear. Stable has a good record in the Highway races, draws well and with better luck, he can figure in the finish for sure.
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Race Three (13:55) : Inglis Nursery 1000m:
Back Me: Really tricky race to sort out. I’ve landed with Jackson (Best Odds: $10.00), who debuted with a win in the Merson Cooper (1000m) at Sandown when charging home from near last to win quite impressively. Stable are having a really good run with their youngsters and this gelding looks one of the better ones, plus he is by one of the best wet track sires.
Big Danger: Credible Witness (Best Odds: $5.50) debuted on Cox Plate Day at the Valley in the 2YO race there where he didn’t look comfortable at all on the track, but his last 150m was excellent. Kept up to the mark with a couple of slick trials, the latest coming here when winning over 1044m and ran one of the fastest times of the morning. Looks tuned right up to win this.
Roughie: Too Fast For Love (Best Odds: $17.00) debuted over this distance at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks back where she stuck on quite well when a close up fifth to Quick Feet in a race where the depth looks pretty good. Trainer has a good record when targeting this race and this girl is bred to appreciate further, so a fast run 1000m will be ideal.
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Race Four (14:30) : Sportsyear Diary Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: Going with Frank Who (Best Odds: $9.00), who resumes here for Team Hawkes. The son of Zabeel hasn’t raced since August when winning over the Warwick Farm mile. He runs well fresh and has tuned up for this with a nice trial on his home track at Rosehill behind quality mare Private Secretary. Won well first up last time in. Looks hard to beat.
Big Danger: Sniper (Best Odds: $11.00) made his Australian debut for Bjorn Baker under the lights at Canterbury a couple of weeks back where he got a long way back and worked home alright against the tempo behind Man Of Distinction, who was a forgive run last Saturday. Stack of upside, stable in form as is rider Thomas Huet.
Roughie: Conquer (Best Odds: $19.00) had his first run for David Payne at Scone last week and worked home strongly from the rear to run third to Pro Consul, who is a proven city performer. That was his first run in seven weeks, so there should be upside and he will be better suited on the big track and up in trip.
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Race Five (15:05) : Avijohn Constructing Christmas Cup 2400m:
Back Me: Jiayuguan (Best Odds: $3.30) stormed home from a seemingly impossible position last start to win over this distance at Rosehill. He did something similar when winning here on Cup Day. She will love it if the rain comes, but regardless wet or dry, she is the form stayer in Sydney and should take a power of beating here.
Big Danger: Quick Strike (Best Odds: $7.00) ran third in that race mentioned above, and while he seemingly had his chance in the run, he stuck to the task and was only beaten 1.6L. Randwick 2400m looks ideal, he handles all conditions and it’s hard to tip against Chris Waller in a feature race, especially at Randwick.
Roughie: Zatopaz (Best Odds: $19.00) is on the back up from last Saturday when racing over 2000m here. He attempted to lead all the way but was racing near the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be, so his effort to finish under two lengths from the winner was full of merit. Step up in trip is perfect, on the minimum and even though he only has one gear, he’ll keep at it all day and won’t be stopping.
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Race Six (15:45) : Inglis Sprint 1100m:
Back Me: Hellbent (Best Odds: $2.00) looks the way to go here. He hasn’t raced since the Group l Coolmore Stud (1200m) when finishing eighth to Japonisme, where he was one of many victims of the bias towards the rail. His run prior was here in the Brian Crowley (1200m) where he was luckless behind Counterattack, who ran third to Japonisme, so the form looks outstanding.
Big Danger: Bitburg (Best Odds: $8.50) is unbeaten in four runs for Matty Dale. He resumed in a Highway race at Rosehill three weeks back where he sat on speed and kicked on very strongly for a determined win. Form out of that race has held up okay, and I think the big spacious surroundings of Randwick will be perfect, and if the rain comes, he has bolted up in two runs on heavy ground.
Roughie: Nick On The Run (Best Odds: $126.00) steps up big time in grade after winning a Muswellbrook maiden, but the win there was outstanding considering he charged home from near last and won with a fair bit of ease. His form prior was pretty good on the Central Coast, and the stable are flying at the moment. Keep an eye on market moves.
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Race Seven (16:25) : Inglis Villiers Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: The old saying is that you need a 2000m horse to win a tough Randwick mile, so on that basis, I’ll go with Zanbagh (Best Odds: $13.00), who has been outstanding in two runs under the care of John Thompson. She surprised most by winning first up, but proved that was no fluke on firm ground when a closing fourth against the tempo in the Festival Stakes (1500m). She proved she can run well on firm, but she is lengths better with give in the track, and the forecast is for rain on race day.
Big Danger: The 2000m run and then back to the mile has been a formula used by Chris Waller on many occasions in feature races at Randwick, so Telepathic (Best Odds: $7.00) has to be respected. She won in good style two back, then looked to gain great confidence on that based on her spanking of her ATC Cup (2000m) rivals. Beat nothing, but the ease in which she did it was really impressive. Handles all conditions and she will be very strong at the end of 1600m.
Roughie: If there is going to be a knockout hope, it’s the 2014 Queensland Oaks winner Tinto (Best Odds: $26.00). She was totally unsuited by the slow tempo in the Festival, but looking at her replay, the last 200m was excellent considering she had no hope. She will be better with some give in the track, she’ll love a fast run 1600m and is another that will improve if the rain comes.
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Race Eight (17:05) : Green Options Razor Sharp Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Cracking race here. I’m going wide in this race and will go for some value in Territory (Best Odds: $34.00). This bloke hasn’t raced since the Brisbane Winter Carnival and while he didn’t win, he performed very well. Trialled on his home track at Warwick Farm last week and looked in great order when a closing third to Aussies Love Sport. He will get back and charge late and looks great value.
Big Danger: Dublin Lass (Best Odds: $3.00) was impressive in winning last start in the Starlight (1100m), aided by a peach from McEvoy, who had the mare tucked in behind the leader before peeling out at the right and wearing down said leader. Randwick 1200m is a different beast, but Shinn is back on and she draws beautifully.
Roughie: Keep an eye on the return run of the old boy Monton (Best Odds: $67.00). Getting on in years, but gee I didn’t mind his latest trial here when running third to a potential Group l winner in Bold Adventure. He always runs well on his home track and he can pull out a decent run fresh.
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Race Nine (17:45) : TAB More Than Just Winning Handicap (85) 1600m:
Back Me: Caped Crusader (Best Odds: $4.80) looks the best bet on the program. He was huge in winning over this track/distance last Saturday where he led at a good gallop and fought on very strongly for a determined win. He was one of the only leaders to win given there was a headwind during the afternoon, so his effort to win was outstanding. Should lead here again and take some beating.
Big Danger: Sebrina (Best Odds: $7.00) was given a sweet ride by Avdulla to win over the 1900m at Rosehill three weeks back, and probably should have won by further but she wanted to lay in a touch over the concluding stages. That tough win should see her relish the Randwick mile and she handles all conditions.
Roughie: Final Decision (Best Odds: $11.00) was a ripping run last start at Rosehill when charging home along the rail to run a close up second to Happy Clapper, who goes around as a leading contender in the Villiers. He runs well at this distance, and his lone run at the track/distance resulted in a narrow second to subsequent Stakes winner and Group l performer Sadler’s Lake. That reads well for this.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 9 Caped Crusader
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Hellbent
VALUE: Race Seven Number 8 Tinto
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3
Leg Two: 4, 8, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16
Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11
Leg Four: 4, 9
$50 Investment= 29.76% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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