Saturday racing returns to Rosehill this weekend for a strong nine event card with really good depth right across the nine races compared to Canterbury last weekend. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:40) : Funland Australia Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: I’m not sure what 1 Junglized (Bet Now: $6.00) beat on debut at Muswellbrook but you have to respect the fact he bolted in, ran time and seemingly did everything right. Returns to his home track now, has race experience and tactical speed…three big ticks for juvenile races.
Big Danger: 4 Groundbreak (Bet Now: $5.50) is an All Too Hard colt that debuts for Team Hawkes. He trialled here on Monday and looked to go about his business nicely, sitting on speed and going to the line under his own steam to win. He’s on his home track and in the right stable and they usually have success when they trial/race in the same week.
Long Shot: 6 The Mission (Bet Now: $6.00) didn’t pull 100% after the Breeders Plate where he was hard in the market off the back of an impressive trial at the official 2YO trials at Randwick. Been given a freshen up and trialled at Muswellbrook recently where he looked to be going through the motions under a hold. $15 opening price was crazy and even now he seems good odds.
Race Two (13:20) : Club Marconi Handicap (69) 1300m:
Back Me: 2 Cadogan (Bet Now: $3.40) resumed over 1200m here on Derby Day and gee he was one of the real eye catchers for the entire meeting when sitting last in a slowly run race and picking up strongly late when fourth to Eckstein. He did look to have a belly on him also, so he’ll take enormous benefit from that outing. Keeping in mind he is a Magic Millions purchase, his Grand Final may be the Magic Millions Guineas, so I am sure whatever he does here he will improve on, but his class may be enough.
Big Danger: 1 Samadoubt (Bet Now: $6.50) has won his last two starts in impressive fashion, both times he has sat on speed and fought on strongly. I think the claim for Deanne Panya is timely, and we know the record she has on speed runners, especially on wet tracks. Horse is yet to run on a rain affected surface but being by Not A Single Doubt, he should eat it up.
Long Shot: 5 Vasiliev (Bet Now: $21.00) is the interesting horse. He resumes for the Waterhouse/Bott stable after contesting the J J Atkisn during the Winter Carnival. Been given a decent break and has tuned up for his return to racing with three hard trials. The quality is there for sure, and he is wound up to run a race fresh. Big market watch.
Race Three (13:55) : Cosmedic Central Handicap (81) 2400m:
Back Me: 4 Pursuit Of Honour (Bet Now: $2.70) is a horse on the rise for Chris Waller. He ran in the Provincial Final on Oaks Day at Hawkesbury and though he took an absolute eternity to wind up, he attacked the line and finished best to get the job done. Trained on the track and up to 2400m are the ticks, plus he has upside in a thin race.
Big Danger: Getting back onto a bigger track could spark 5 Low Places (Bet Now: $10.00) into form. He attemped to lead all the way over 2700m at Canterbury last time out and leading clearly isn’t his caper when finishing down the track behind Doc Holliday. The vigour of Avdulla is timely for this horse, because he does need a shove, and there is no better ride for that.
Long Shot: 6 Cramming (Bet Now: $9.00) ran over this trip on Cup Day at Randwick and he was back in the ruck in a race where those on speed went at a strong tempo where they just left the backmarkers with too much to do yet he finished off his race nicely. Been racing very well without winning recently. I think that will continue here, but he is a must for exotics.
Race Four (14:30) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Budderoo Knight (Bet Now: $6.00) was a horse I was keen on when resuming in a Randwick Highway where he didn’t really like racing inside horses behind Eckstein, who has franked the form. He then went to Kembla Grange on Cup Day and absolutely spanked them. The trial prior to the start of the prep was first class and if he gets clear running here, I think he will be far too good for them. Very keen on his chances.
Big Danger: 11 Artistic Beauty (Bet Now: $9.00) trialled really well behind Stakes winner Alart prior to resuming in a Highway over 1300m a fortnight back where she was $51 into around $11 and the plunge almost came off. She presented as if she was going to win but her condition just gave out the final 100m. Was down to run last week, but was saved and instead runs here. Ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 9 Le Cavalier (Bet Now: $19.00) is a handy gelding that resumed in a four horse field at Canberra where he had the charmed run behind the tempo, but given he is better over further, he just lacked the turn of foot but didn’t turn it up and was coming again near the line. Ran well in a couple of Highways last time in, which looked to have more depth than this event. Second up winner also and has a stack of upside.
Race Five (15:05) : All Our Mob Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 That’s A Good Idea (Bet Now: $4.20) comes through the Choisir on Cup Day at Randwick where he sat off speed and loomed to win the race but second up with the heavy weight just found him out late when swamped late by Kaepernick. Been a while since he has raced at Rosehill but he does have a tidy record here and this isn’t a strong race.
Big Danger: 5 Meursault (Bet Now: $2.60) is the very interesting runner here. Resumes here for Godolphin after failing in the Hareeba on Mornington Cup Day. Has a very good fresh record and his trials leading in have been outstanding. Expect him to run a beauty fresh.
Long Shot: 4 Lunar Rise (Bet Now: $7.00) has been given a three week freshen up since racing over 1400m at Randwick when running midfield behind Rock Forthe Ladies. Freshen up should do him the world of good based on the recent trial, and on his day, he is capable of taking this out.
Race Six (15:45) : Club Marconi Amatrice Fund Handicap (84) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Alart (Bet Now: $7.00) resumed against the boys over 1100m here a fortnight back where she had a nice sit just off the speed and when Parr presented her, she dashed up as if she was going to win, but given she was fresh, her condition just gave way late but it was still a very encouraging return and that followed an excellent trial. Back to her own sex and is a Stakes winner at the track/distance. Ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 4 Yuma Desert (Bet Now: $8.00) was a strong second over 1100m here fresh behind Sir Plush in what has turned out to be a hot form race. Her next two outings have been disappointing, so it is D-Day for her I think, but a repeat of that fresh effort would see her go close to knocking this field off here.
Long Shot: 7 Leami Astray (Bet Now: $14.00) is an absolute beauty for Robert Price. She ran over this track/distance in a near identical race two weeks ago where she sat on speed and fought on strongly when a close up third to Cana. She was known as a Highway class mare, but we are soon realising she is better than that, and she only needs to repeat that effort to go close here.
Race Seven (16:20) : Schweppes Mix & Serve Handicap (85) 1500m:
Back Me: 2 Moher (Bet Now: $2.35) looks one of the better bets on the program, like he was when racing here a fortnight back. He was given a beaut on speed steer from Nick Heywood, who ran along at a nice tempo up in front and when he clicked the horse up, it just raced clear and won with real authority. Tends to save his best for the Rosehill 1500m, he’s hard fit now and in winning form.
Big Danger: 8 Balmain Boy (Bet Now: $5.50) is a horse I have lost patience with and I couldn’t back him, but he has to be regarded as a threat here. He had the charmed run behind the tempo last time out over the Randwick mile and chased hard but was no match late for More To Gain in a race where the form has been franked via Happy Hannah. Ran a solid second at the track/distance three starts back and he should get a suck run from the gate.
Long Shot: 1 Mr Gustavo (Bet Now: $17.00) is a former kiwi that made his Australian debut over 1400 at Randwick three weeks back where he had no peace on speed, running a sub 11 furlong in the middle stages and that really was when the damage was done when fourth to stablemate Rock Forthe Ladies. Should only have upside from that and rates highly, especially if he doesn’t do as much work on speed.
Race Eight (17:00) : #theraces Handicap (84) 1300m:
Back Me: 3 Cauthens Power (Bet Now: $6.50) for me here. Talented type that resumes for Chris Waller after a pretty solid prep during the Summer of last season where he looked impressive in his first two runs, both wins, before running well without winning in several subsequent outings. He tends to save his best racing for when he is produced fresh. Trialled here on Monday and I really liked the way he ran through the line when clear and squeezed. Keep in mind that one of those wins saw him spank Heavens Above, a high class mare. Keen.
Big Danger: 9 Asinara (Bet Now: $5.00) was a major flop when resuming over the 1350m here a fortnight back where she sat back in the ruck and just couldn’t come on at all but she did pull up with a mild case of the the thumps, so there were excuses. Trials leading up to that were sharp and she did run third to subsequent Group l winner Single Gaze second up last prep in the Keith Nolan. That reads well for this.
Long Shot: 4 Ryker (Bet Now: $7.50) is a real enigma for Team Snowden. Resumes here after a very frustrating prep in the Winter where he teased to win a race, but failed to do that. He trialled recently, winning at Randwick, and to the eye he was impressive and ran time. First up last time in he was three lengths off Caped Crusader. That’s good enough to go close here.
Race Nine (17:40) : TAB Rewards Handicap (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Elemenohpee (Bet Now: $4.60) was very good when resuming over this track/distance a fortnight back, sitting wide no cover the trip yet still found the line to run fourth to Upscale, beaten just under two lengths. That was a gutbuster, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces off that. If he does positively, he is the one they have to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Nieta (Bet Now: $2.50) had a little freshen up prior to racing at Randwick three weeks ago where she sat off a hot speed before Josh Parr eased the mare wider and gee she let down with a powerful finishing burst to get the job done. That was on soft ground and on Saturday we are likely to get a firm track, so that’s the negative with her because she does seem to save her best for the wet tracks. Still, she has to be considered.
Long Shot: 1 Highly Geared (Bet Now: $14.00) was a month between runs when racing over this track/distance a fortnight back where she gave an almighty sight in front and for the most part looked the winner but was nabbed right on the peg by the in form Upscale, who was lifted over the line by Avdulla. Panya jumps on now, her claim helps and she maps well again.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Moher
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Cadogan
VALUE: Race Four Number 1 Budderoo Knight
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg Four: 1, 6, 8, 9, 12
$50 Investment= 33.33% of the dividend if successful
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