The Brisbane Winter Carnival reaches its climax this Saturday at Eagle Farm with an outstanding card, headlined by the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Stradbroke Handicap 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Stradbroke Handicap
JJ Atkins Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the JJ Atkins Stakes
The Q22 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Q22
Race 1. (11:29) Oxlade Stakes 1200m
Is 8 Maotai (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) one out of the box? Hadn’t trialled publicly but someone knew the engine was under the hood when debuting at Ipswich given he was $5.5/$3.6 and really, the way he won, he may as well have been $1.60. He went like an absolute jet and relative to the day, the time was very good, so I’m confident he can measure up here.
I’m giving 7 Uncommon James (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) a shout here. O’Dea/Hoysted trained juvenile that comes through a very sharp 900m maiden at the Gold Coast on debut when second to Lime Soda where they smashed the clock. This guy then ran last Friday at the Sunny Coast where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted. I think he can measure up.
$26+ for 13 Lime Soda (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) when markets opened was crazy given she did beat Uncommon James on debut in that Gold Coast 900m race mentioned above. Uncommon James challenged her but she kicked and was able to fend him. He opened $7 whereas she opened $26…too big of a gap for a race that rated through the roof.
Race 2. (12:04) The Wayne Wilson 1600m
4 Ranier (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) can be an improver up in trip for James Cummings. Tried to secure a start in the Stradbroke via the BRC Sprint but he just got too far back in the run and was never really a factor behind surprise all the way winner Emerald Kingdom. Bigger track, fitter, up to 1600m…deserves another chance.
5 Delphi (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a fascinating runner. Former Irish galloper that makes his Australian debut for Team Freedman. He was supposed to be a Cups horse last year but didn’t come up and the stable have kept him on ice. The recent jumpout, he looked like a camel, so watch the market because on form overseas, he is a classy animal.
8 Profit (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in good order. Market wanted to be with him when resuming here two weeks ago over 1400m and it was spot on. J Mac came with a well timed run out wide and was able to just get the better of Grand Piano in a tight go. Fitter, up in trip and is a proven weight carrier so the WFA set up is fine I think.
Race 3. (12:39) Gunsynd Classic 1600m
2 Ayrton (Bet Now: $1.75 TOP ODDS) looks the one. He’ll take good benefit from the Fred Best, where he was trying to win to get into the Stradbroke. He tried very hard to wear down Apache Chase but couldn’t quite get there. Think the rise to the mile suits, he’s hard fit now and does look the one to beat.
7 Puntura (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Kiwi raider that makes his Australian debut and comes here with a fair bit of promise given he has won four of seven. Three of those wins have come against older horses and the form around him looks solid enough. Looked great in a recent Sunny Coast trial, so watch the market.
5 Without Thinking (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) has quality about him. 2/2 this time in, giving them a spanking fresh at Ipswich before going to the Sunny Coast where he had to chase a pretty strong speed but he did that and then drew clear late to win well. He’s heading in the right direction and think he runs well here.
Race 4. (13:14) Brisbane Cup 3200m
The form guide might not say it, but I think 5 Lord Belvedere (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is flying. He was brave two back at the Gold Coast after being wide no cover, then racing here two weeks ago in the Premiers Cup, again was wide no cover and on the turn looked like he would run last, but he kept finding and was solid to the line. If those two runs haven’t busted him, I think he’s in with a big shout here.
3 Rondinella (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) hasn’t won since Moses parted the sea, but she’s flying. Game effort in the Sydney Cup before being freshened up with this race in mind. Tick over run was in the Premiers Cup and she worked to the line with real purpose I thought behind Spirit Ridge. She’d love a drop of rain, but she did seemingly handle the track last time.
1 Carif (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) will love the rise to two miles. Jamie Kah gave him a peach in the Premiers Cup and did everything bar win, getting nailed near the peg by Spirit Ridge. I think it’s evident that Jame Kah rides him better than anyone else, so losing her is a negative, but he is a stayer who loves dry ground.
Race 5. (13:53) The Q22 2200m
$1.60 all in, on paper, looks a put in/take out job with 1 Zaaki (Bet Now: $1.45). The only knock or query with him is how will he handle Eagle Farm and a likely rock hard deck because his best efforts have clearly come when he gets his toe in, as seen in his two runs up north, firstly in the Hollindale and then the Doomben Cup. If he handles the track, he’s a genuine $1.10 chance. Has panels on these class wise. Just depends on the track.
14 Toffee Tongue (Bet Now: $12.00) has only won the two races but she is racing quite honestly for Chris Waller. She tried her heart out in the Doomben Cup but was simply no match for a very dominant Zaaki. She is a mare who does love a firm deck so Eagle Farm will suit her. Just might have too much ground to make up on Zaaki.
6 Warning (Bet Now: $15.00) has the runs on the board, has class, and that will carry him a long way. I was all over him last time out in the Chairmans several weeks ago and was amazed by the market drift. He was the lone genuine Group l performer in the race and his class got him home late. He’ll love two miles at Eagle Farm…just depends on the dry ground and whether he needs to get his toe in.
Race 6. (14:33) Hinkler Hcp 1200m
9 Garibaldi (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the safe option. Real eye catcher here fresh behind Fender before trying to secure his Stradbroke start via the BRC Sprint. He had every chance I thought when fourth to Emerald Kingdom. Significant jockey upgrade and we saw last Saturday that the inside here isn’t too bad so gate one isn’t a negative I don’t think.
11 Gee Tee Tee (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a very progressive galloper for the O’Dea/Hoysted camp that should love the 1200m at Eagle Farm. Ran over 1110m at Doomben a gew weeks ago where he sat off the speed before Ben Thompson worked into clear air and away he went. He was dominant and can only see improvement off that. Hard to beat.
4 King Of Hastings (Bet Now: $8.50) deserves another chance. Team Freedman trained gelding that resumed in the Chief De Beers. 1110m at Doomben I don’t think was his set up so I want to be forgiving of that effort behind Varda. Really good second up record and up to 1200m on a bigger track, he deserves another chance.
Race 7. (15:13) J.J. Atkins Plate 1600m
5 Port Louis (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the one to beat for mine. His effort in the Sires was very good. Bowman rode him a peach and he was there to win. Just think his condition gave out late when third to Tiger Of Malay. He’ll love the step up to the mile, he’s got class and is proven at the track based on last time.
Did connections find out the right way to steer 2 Converge? (Bet Now: $3.00) In the Sires last time, they rode him cold from the outset and the end result was an electric finale, just missing out on picking up Tiger Of Malay. It’ll be quite interesting to see if they ride him that way again or revert to riding aggressively.
6 Volcanic Rock (Bet Now: $23.00) is backing up from winning The Phoenix last Saturday. His only hope is if this becomes a truly run mile because he does look very one paced, as seen when winning here on the weekend. He has ticked the Eagle Farm box, he’ll be on speed and giving a sight. The knock is the overall time on the weekend was around 11 lengths slower than the Spear Chief.
Race 8. (15:53) Stradbroke Hcp 1400m
The stable/connections won the Stradbroke with Tyzone recently and I think they can win it again, this time with 12 The Harrovian (Bet Now: $12.00). This just looks a clear plan for him. Freshened up after an outstanding effort in the All Star Mile, he closed with real purpose late in the 10,000 behind Eduardo. Back to a handicap, 2/2 at Eagle Farm, good speed in front…can only see him running well, even allowing for who is riding him.
11 Vega One (Bet Now: $4.80) is fast becoming an Eagle Farm specialist and that is such a big tick. Unbelievable steer from Jamie Kah to get him home home in the Kingsford Smith, dive bombing them late in the last few strides. Being a last start Group l winner, he gets in very well at the weights and is hard to beat.
9 I Am Superman (Bet Now: $19.00) is big odds here for a horse who thrives on dry ground. Hasn’t raced since the All Aged where WFA isn’t his go. He is a handicapper, so the conditions here do suit and gee he looked to truck in a trial last week at Randwick. Lands in a olum spot from the draw, $26+ for him is crazy.
Race 9. (16:29) Dane Ripper Stakes 1300m
6 Sweet Deal (Bet Now: $5.00) picks herself. Enormous run two weeks ago in the Helen Coughlan. Got a mile back in the run but rocketed late, just missing out on picking up Exhilarates. Her best performances have come at this 1300m trip, namely when she won The Hunter at Newcastle. Just needs normal luck and I think she’s the winner.
It’s amazing how some horses just thrive in certain places and it’s clear that 9 Exhilarates (Bet Now: $9.50) does love racing in Queensland. Her best has been produced in the state and that was the case once again in the Helen Coughlan. She was wide throughout but was too good for her rivals in a strong effort. Now she has found winning form, she can hold it for sure.
5 Sierra Sue (Bet Now: $35.00) is ticking along nicely towards the Tatts Tiara. Jury was out after a plain Spring/Autumn, but she resumed in the Helen Coughlan and was a real eye catcher from the back behind Exhilarates. If she’s within range 400m out, she has the turn of foot to beat these.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 6 Sweet Deal
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Ayrton
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 The Harrovian
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4, 5, 9, 11
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6
Leg Three: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
Leg Four: 6
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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