12/3/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Adelaide Cup day

Nine races will be run and won at Morphettville this Monday where it is Adelaide Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

I want to be with 3 Entrancing (Bet Now: $2.40) in the opener. Phillip Stokes trains this mare and I reckon she’s wound up to win fresh. Hasn’t raced for nearly a year, where she had a two run Autumn prep, but I loved what I saw in a recent trial win here, which was won in very fast time. Good fresh performer, I’ll be with her.

1 El Sicario (Bet Now: $4.20) is the big watch here. Busuttin/Young trains this galloper, who is over a month between runs since racing wide no cover on speed over the 955m at the Valley when down the track behind Angry Gee. He can be a bit hard to trust and follow at times. If the proper El Sicario turned up, no betting. He wins. Just hard to take that gamble.

6 Tempting Faith (Bet Now: $13.00) is an Alex Stra trained mare who is racing in near career best form at the moment. Gutsy on speed win two back over 1100m here when heavily backed before stepping back to this track/distance last Saturday where she ran a close up fourth to Evil Dreams. Looks to map super and only carries 51.5kg.

6 Ace Attack (Bet Now: $3.80) is racing really well at the moment for the Macdonald/Gluyas team, but he is just doing plenty wrong at the moment and costing himself. That was the case last Saturday at this track/distance when wanting to duck in behind Column, not running straight. Senior jock on now to straighten him up, hopefully.

I reckon 8 Lieder (Bet Now: $3.70) is ready to do something positive here. He had market support in the Column race mentioned above and the punters were right because he ran a much improved race to run third, though well held. I like that the stable backs him up and when there is smoke there is fire when it comes to this stable.

Long Shot: I think back in trip will suit 5 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $9.00). He ran over the 2250m on the Parks track last time out and to my eye he just didn’t see the trip out behind the dominant winner and stablemate Flying Casino. Run prior at this track/distance was in the Birthday Cup where I thought he ran a beauty behind Exalted Lightning, a leading Adelaide Cup contender. Clear overs in this race.

1 Easy Beast (Bet Now: $3.50) looks a near good thing to my eye. Richard Laming trains this three year old, who resumed over 1000m at the Valley a couple of Friday nights back and worked home well from off the pace behind the above average Godolphin filly Demerara. Expecting that form to well and truly be good enough for this, and the horse has run well here before.

4 Over Exposure (Bet Now: $2.20) is a Rothesay three year old for the Tony McEvoy team. This bloke had a three run Spring prep, debuting with a dominant win at Balaklava before ending up in Melbourne where he wasn’t beaten far in the Blue Sapphire. Been gelded and has trialled up enormous at Flemington. Just has to overcome the sticky gate.

9 Tuckers Daughter (Bet Now: $41.00) is a Paul Beshara trained filly who broke the maiden status with a fair bit of ease last time out at Gawler over 1100m. Punters backed her as if she was Winx and she pretty much won accordingly. Obviously more depth here, but ran good time that afternoon relative to the day and 1200m no issue.

Going to give 16 Illuminaire (Bet Now: $9.00) a look here on debut. Team Corstens trains this daughter of All Too Hard, who does come here on debut in a hot race so they must have an opinion of her, and to my eye I think she will run well because she looked very sharp in a March 2 jump out win at Flemington when leading throughout. Hopefully gets cover from the draw.

11 Zizzis (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Patrick Payne trained filly who was well backed when debuting at Bendigo a couple of Wednesdays back and the punters got it spot on as Billy Egan landed her on speed, looked to travel sweetly and she gave a tremendous kick when challenged to cling on in a race which looked to have really good depth to it. Confident she can measure up.

4 King Artie (Bet Now: $46.00) could be the knockout at huge odds. Peter Hardacre trains this colt, who was unwanted in betting when debuting here on Feb 17 but I thought he was a real eye catcher, closing off with real purpose behind Double Denman, with already a winner to come from that race. He’ll be strong late. Just depends how far back he gets.

She has an awful winning strike rate, but I think 5 Flying Jess (Bet Now: $3.20) can run well here for the John Moloney. Has been unsuited in both runs back this prep, both against the mares where she has got back on days/races where those on speed have been advantaged. I think third up at the mile is ideal, Kah rides, and this race is thin.

3 Lite’N In My Veins (Bet Now: $3.10) looks the horse to beat on class. Hasn’t raced for over a month since toughing it out strongly to win at this track/distance on Feb 3, admittedly in a field that lacked real depth to the eye. But he got the confidence boost he needed and was very strong on the line. Zahra takes over and he maps ideally on speed.

7 Scratchy Lass (Bet Now: $14.00) is absolutely flying for the John Hickmott team and a forward showing wouldn’t surprise despite being the near rank outsider. She ran over the 1400m on the Parks track on Saturday and ran some outstanding late splits relative to the race and meeting when second to Affray. Actually was three lengths off Lite’n In My Veins in the race mentioned above. If there is tempo, she can turn the tables.

Will Clarken has a real knack with these tried horses and he did it again with 6 Savatag (Bet Now: $2.60) when the horse won at his Australian debut over 1400m on the Parks track at Morphettville under a lovely ride from Todd Pannell. That race looked to have good depth to it too, so he has the upside and I think the mile is no issue.

1 Dances On Stars (Bet Now: $6.00) is flying for Grant Young. He ran over this track/distance last Saturday where he got a mile back off them in what was an on pace dominated affair but he made up a stack of ground to get close to knocking off Daktari. I think he can sit much closer in the run from the draw and Dunn takes the ride.

7 Jestwin (Bet Now: $16.00) is rising significantly in grade but gee the bold boy is racing well. He comes through the Kingscote Cup Carnival where he ran in the Cup and ran a blinder when a narrow second to Red Menace, who wouldn’t die wondering and fought hard to get the win. I think back to the mile is no issue, he’ll be on speed and giving a sight.

4 Fanatic (Bet Now: $4.60) looks a near good thing to my eye. The Hayes/Dabernig team have this girl flying I think with this race being the key target all prep. She ran in the Roy Higgins last Saturday where it was run at a farcical speed and though they all ran home quick, she ran home the quickest in sub 34. No horse here can run that sort of split and she is proven at the two miles. All over her.

7 Exalted Lightning (Bet Now: $6.00) looks the pick of the local chances. Grant Young has done quite a remarkable job with this horse, taking him from a benchmark plugger to now being a leading contender in the Adelaide Cup. Lord Reims run was outstanding given he was back in the ruck in a race where they absolutely crawled. Two miles no issue, I don’t think, and he’s in form/hard fit.

1 Benzini (Bet Now: $14.00) is the class runner of the field hence why he is topweight. He ran third in the Lord Reims and to the eye, his run was great considering he too was out the back off a slow tempo, but he did hug the rail and saved the ground whereas those like Exalted Lightning had to come wide. That’s why you’re getting a good price about Benzini. But he is a proven two miler, having placed in a NZ Cup in 2015, and Rosie Myers rides the horse better than anyone.

5 Steel Frost (Bet Now: $3.80) has been very good to me since joining the Will Clarken team and I see no reason to jump off. He is first up here after an outstanding Spring/Summer, which saw him win multiple races at Caulfield, along with the City Of Marion here. Resumes with no trials, but he was so dynamic fresh last prep.

Great to see 9 Arkham Knight (Bet Now: $12.00) back at the races. John Macmillian trains this four year old, who has been set for the Goodwood since being tipped out in the Winter. Interesting he resumes with no public trials, but I’m sure he has had a private jump out or two back home to get him ready for this.

8 Go The Journey (Bet Now: $13.00) is a beauty for the Richard Jolly team. He lacks the class of some of these but he makes up for it with toughness. Gee he is a tough bugger to get past and that was the case at this track/distance last time out where he was on speed and kicked strongly but was bloused late by Stellar Collision. He’ll be on speed again and giving a great sight.

9 Lucky Fish (Bet Now: $19.00) has become a winning machine since joining the Brent Stanley team. He is two for three for the new stable with the defeat being an unlucky resumption. He hasn’t been winning by spaces, but he has stuck the neck out to get the job done, something he didn’t do when racing in NSW. Back to 1200m, Walker on, he’ll take some beating.

5 Zalmona (Bet Now: $11.00) is racing really well at the moment for the Peter Blanch team. He is over a month between runs since racing over the 1250m on the Parks track where he was back, wide with no cover, but he still worked home with purpose late behind Blue Tycoon, who won again to frank the form. Goes well fresh and gets Gatt on from a good draw.

Big watch here on 14 Tatoosh (Bet Now: $5.00), a former Paul Perry/Wendy Roche galloper making his SA debut for the Will Clarken, and I have mentioned already in this preview the record that Clarken has with these tried horses. Trialled up okay here recently and there is tinkering with the headgear, a sign they intend to run well first up, and Kah rides.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Fanatic

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Entrancing

VALUE: Race Nine Number 9 Lucky Fish

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 5, 9, 12, 13, 14

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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