12/2/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, CF Orr Stakes day

Group l racing for 2022 in Australia kicks off this Saturday at Caulfield where it is CF Orr Stakes Day, the 1400m feature attracting a quality line up. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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3 Fundraiser (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs for Team Hayes since racing at the Valley over 1500m where he was absolutely enormous in defeat given he was only second, copped serious heat on a fast speed and really, was only beaten off very late. If that hasn’t busted him, he’ll take beating.

I reckon this run will determine if 2 In The Boat (Bet Now: $1.80 TOP ODDS) is indeed a blacktype horse or not. He is flying at the moment for Lindsey Smith, winning four on the bounce, the latest coming at The Valley where he led throughout and spanked them in fast time. Cooking with gas if they can stretch his brilliance to 1400m.

9 Unanimous (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is racing so well at the moment for the Maher/Eustace camp. Had to do work from the wide gate at The Valley last start but despite that, he was trucking under Kah and was hailed as the winner but had no answers late for High ‘N’ Dry. If that hasn’t busted him, he’ll be a key threat.

Gate one could be nasty for 7 Decent Raine (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) but she’s flying. Been up forever it seems but little freshen ups here and there seem to be doing the trick with her and her last start over this trip at Flemington, she gave them a spanking. She’s up and firing whereas some of these are first up, so I’ll side with race fitness.

2 Spirit Of Gaylard (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a quality three year old for Mitch Freedman that resumes. He really put it together in the Spring, ending the prep with a win over 1800m at Flemington on Cup Day after failing to get a start in the Derby. Thought he moved well when winning a Geelong trial and I think he’s brilliant enough to be successful at 1400m fresh.

3 Sharp Response (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1400m. He just lost sight of the bunny three weeks ago at the Valley but liked the way he finished his race off from a mile back when third to Invincible Jet. Bred to eat up 1400m and showed that last prep, so he’s in with a shout.

I think this race is all about 5 Jacquinot (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS). He runs up to what he did on debut over 1200m here and wins again, he starts favourite in two weeks time and likely wins in two weeks time. It was an outstanding debut win and his subsequent jumpout was a lovely piece of work. He’s ready to rock and roll.

2 Daumier (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) looks a handy colt for James Cummings. He was kept quite safe in betting when debuting in the Preview and was there to be beaten but I really liked the ticker her showed late. He was there to be beaten but found under pressure to win. Just needs to stretch it out to 1100m.

7 Lacasrs (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented juvenile for James Cummings that resumes. He had a two run Spring, finishing a narrow second on debut in the Maribyrnong Trial before before finishing midfield in the Maribyrnong Plate on Cup Day at Flemington. Looked to go well in a recent jumpout, so I think he runs well here.

1 Miss Rosieano… (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) just how good is she? If you listen to Manny Gelagotis, he thinks this girl is the best they’ve ever trained. Hard to know for certain if she’ll reach that level but all you can do is win and that is what she did on debut in the Preview with sustained speed from the front and ran time. Hard to beat if she can stretch that brilliance out to 1100m.

3 Latizia (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a filly I have time for. Loved the way she moved when winning on debut at Flemington down the straight. She then went to the Preview when three and four wide for the trip and was brave in defeat behind Miss Roseiano. With a more economical run, she can bounce back.

Back to 1100m I hate for 9 Sumatra (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS), but I think she might be the best filly to come from this race if we fast forward six months. She didn’t look to handle The Valley at all on debut but once balanced up, I really liked the way she found the line. If they overdo it in front, look for her to launch late.

We saw in the Spring that when the #SF comes to Melbourne with the 3YO Fillies, it rarely misfires, and I’ll bank on that trend continuing via 2 Mallory (Bet Now: $5.00), who resumes for the Ryan/Alexiou camp. They tried to stretch her out to a mile for the Flight Stakes in the Spring but her form would suggest she is best trained as a sprinter and her two trials suggest she likes being trained as a sprinter. Like her here.

11 Danny’s St Darci (Bet Now: $11.00) has been up a while but she’s a beauty for Archie Alexander. She tried her guts out in the VOBIS Gold Carat at the Valley but was no match for a pretty promising animal in Pinstriped. Back to Fillies grade, hard fitness under the belt with good form around her, she appeals.

All you can do is win and that is what 9 Asfoora (Bet Now: $8.00) has done in three career outings, the latest being over 1100m here on Australia Day where I thought she was impressive given she was near a solid speed yet was quite strong to the line. Harder here, but has earned a crack.

Early on in a prep is best for 4 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $5.00) IMO so I’ll be with him here. I think connections need to take their medicine and realise that he’s not a Group l horse and that this, maybe a touch higher, is his level. Place him in races like this and he’ll win races, not at higher targets. He’s trialled up super in Sydney to get ready for his return and I think he finds a pretty winnable race to kick off his 2022 season.

5 Earlswood (Bet Now: $14.00) looks an Australian Cup horse and will be fascinating to see how he resumes here. Makes his Australian debut for Maddie Raymond and brings over A1 form, including a fourth in a very high rating Irish Derby won by a superstar, Hurricane Lane. Market will tell you if he’s ready but with these class internationals, they generally don’t need to be at their best to win.

7 Surprise Baby (Bet Now: $31.00) is the watch horse. I know 1600m is short of his best, but I want to see him race like he wants to race. His last two runs suggest he doesn’t want to, those being the 2020 Melbourne Cup and then his lone run in the Spring, a down the track effort in the Kevin Heffernan. His Geelong trial was okay without being great. Does his class bring him into the mix? Market will be interesting.

2 Artorius (Bet Now: $3.50) has an awful racing pattern, but if he’s within range on the turn, good luck beating him. The Freedman camp have taken their medicine and realised that he isn’t a 1400m-1600m horse and that he is most effective when trained as a sprinter. That was proven in the Coolmore when producing an electric finale to finish third to Home Affairs. I think he has the brilliance to overcome his pattern here.

4 Ingratiating (Bet Now: $6.00) is a quality 3YO for James Cummings that is resuming. He hasn’t raced since the Coolmore where he found the class a bit rich but overall, was far from disgraced in defeat behind Home Affairs. He tends to race best on the fresh side and loves Caulfield, so he’s hard to beat.

8 Marine One (Bet Now: $3.40) is a talented galloper for the Maher/Eustace camp that comes here four weeks between runs since racing over 1100m here where he tried hard after sitting wide throughout but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to In The Boat, who has won again since, so the form reads well and down in the weights, I think he’ll be okay.

This does look a clear target race for 7 Sinawann (Bet Now: $4.50). He smashed the clock when winning at this track/distance via the Kevin Heffernan during the Spring. Spelled and resumed in the Australia Stakes at the Valley where he was warming to the task late behind Marabi. Fitter and up to 1400m, he’ll take beating.

1 I’m Thunderstruck (Bet Now: $5.00) is a star and great to see him back at the races. He really came of age in a short space of time in the Spring. Won the Toorak in impressive fashion before an outstanding triumph in the Golden Eagle. Thought he moved super in a Cranbourne jumpout and comes here as a key winning threat.

3YO’s have a good record in this race so I am respecting 12 Lightsaber (Bet Now: $11.00), who will get a soft run on speed. Resumed in the Australia Stakes and didn’t disgrace himself at all behind a star, Marabi. Fitter and up to 1400m, with a kind map, I think he’ll run a positive race.

It’s going to take something out of the ordinary to see 1 Probabeel (Bet Now: $1.60) defeated. This is her sweet spot as a kick off point. Last two first up wins have come at this track/distance, winning this race last year and then winning the Cockram in the Spring, both times seeing her carry 60kg successfully. She’s a top class mare and should be winning with eyes towards the Futurity.

3 Flying Mascot (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Tom Dabernig trained mare that resumes. She really came of age in the Spring, graduating from a benchmark 70 to a Group lll win and was two lengths off Colette in an Empire Rose. Looked to truck along nicely in her Geelong trial and though 1200m is on the short side, she ended last prep on a high and stable is flying.

6 Kenyan Wonder (Bet Now: $18.00) is flying for Ryan Balfour. Thrown in the deep end two weeks ago in the Durbridge and I thought given the race shape, she ran a beauty when a closing fifth to Kemalpasa in a race that will be used as a Group l form reference, so it reads for a well mare looking for some blacktype.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Probabeel

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Jacquinot

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 2 Mallory

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8

Leg Three: 1, 7, 10, 12

Leg Four: 1

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