12/2/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm, Inglis Millennium day

Nine races will be run and won at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, with the two feature Inglis races from the washed out Saturday program transferred to this midweek program. The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Inglis Millennium 🏆: View the Field for the Inglis Millennium

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1 Adversity (Bet Now: $3.60) clearly for me in the opener. Son of Deep Impact for Team Snowden that debuted over 1200m at Newcastle and gee his effort was outstanding in what looked a deep maiden on paper. Was only clear for around 150m but savaged the line to run third to Holyfield. The dam Bring Me The Maid was a swimmer and up to 1300m, he looks really hard to beat.

4 Jerle (Bet Now: $2.40) is a James Cummings trained colt that comes to Sydney after starting his career in Victoria. He has the hard race experience under the belt. The knock I have him is that he’s still a maiden and the overall form around him does look a tad suspect, but I think for a maiden, it should be okay, and he’s in the right stable.

5 Much Much Better (Bet Now: $9.50) Better is an interesting runner. Stratum colt that is on debut for John O’Shea. He won a 900m trial at Rosehill on January 28 and was really pushed out to win it, getting up in the last stride. Off that, he wants every bit of 1300m, perhaps more. No turn of foot off that, but the O’Shea/Marquand combo should always be respected.

3 Larimer Street (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Brazen Beau colt for the Busuttin/Young team that was enormous on debut at the Valley when bungling the start then making a mid race move around the field. Did a mighty job to stick on as well as he did when second to Mr Cashman. Form out of that has been good and you’d like to think he’ll come on from that as evidenced by a recent Cranbourne jumpout.

1 Encountabull (Bet Now: $3.90) is a big query here. John Sargent trains this colt, who has been excellent in two career outings, the latest coming late last year in the Inglis Nursery when a closing second to Wild Ruler. The trial win was ugly to the eye and on the clock, but perhaps he didn’t handle the shifty/soft track? On top of the ground, been set for this race, he’s a yard/market watch for sure.

10 Sunborn (Bet Now: $20.00) is the unknown here. Daughter of Casino Prince for Edward Cummings that has had two career outings. Debuted with a win over 900m at Newcastle before making up ground late in the Inglis Nursery behind Wild Ruler before being spelled. Under a really good hold in a recent Rosehill trial when not asked to do much, so watch the market with this girl.

4 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $14.00) can be a big improver here I feel. He was one of many not suited at all a few weeks ago at Flemington behind Alabama Express and did cop a severe check from Banquo which caused him to lose momentum so want to forgive that outing, plus that form was well and truly ticked off last Saturday. He’s a quality three year old when right, so giving him another chance.

5 True Detective (Bet Now: $4.20) might be a different horse this time in now he’s a gelding. Resumed over 1100m just under three weeks ago at Randwick and could make a little case that he goes close to beating Pandemic. Just didn’t get clear air at the right time when the eventual winner had full momentum. Placed in both heavy track outings and up to 1200m is a big tick.

For the most part, just forget 3 Strasbourg (Bet Now: $26.00) went around during the Spring. Had three runs. Was very good first up in the Danehill behind Dalasan before finishing down the track in the Guineas Prelude and the Blue Sapphire. Been given a good spell and loved the way he closed off in a Randwick trial behind a speedy customer in Intrepidacious. His best is clearly good enough to figure.

I think he’s one of the better each way gambles of the day is 6 Hallelujah Boy (Bet Now: $10.00), who is first up for Kris Lees. This guy can mix his form, but one thing that does stand out is his wet track form, which has been outstanding in Stakes races for the most part. Can sprint well fresh and his trials leading in have been brilliant. I think he’s ready to rock and roll first up.

5 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $2.15), if he’s anywhere near right, which I think he is, will go close to winning this before heading towards tackling Group l company later in the Autumn. He’s one of the boom horses in Australia after what he did in the Spring and there are some saying he could be the next big thing for Australian racing, even a Melbourne Cup horse. His trials have been excellent, the work a couple of Saturdays back between races was strong. I know the stable are aiming him at a race like the Ranvet, which is around six/seven weeks away, so you’d like to think he’s forward in condition, and he looks like he is.

4 Youngstar (Bet Now: $19.00) is a quality mare for Chris Waller that is resuming. This girl teased to win a race during the Spring but she just lacked any real change up speed when it was needed to break through and ended up finishing down the track in the Melbourne Cup. Trial suggested she would need the run but worked well between races a couple of Saturdays back alongside Shared Ambition and this is comfortably the easiest race she has contested since her 3YO days.

The 1150m-1400m now back to 1100m set up is an odd one for 1 Voila (Bet Now: $2.60), and normally would be against her given that, but this will be a testing 1400m, and she should be one of the stronger ones at the end. Ran over 1400m here last time out and on face value looked to have her chance, but bear in mind she was a few weeks between runs, so think she improves off that fitness wise.

7 Kentucky Wildcat (Bet Now: $5.00) is also coming back in trip but her resumption was quite good I thought here back on January 27, finishing off well from off the pace to run fourth to Riverside’s Cash. Lone win did come on a Soft5, and on breeding, a genuine wet track should be fine for her. Gate one is the little knock but will leave that in the capable hands of Tommy Berry.

3 I Stole Your Love (Bet Now: $14.00) is a most interesting runner. Likely on the Country Championships path and will use this as the tune up leading into her respective Qualifier. Roy McCabe trains this mare, who really came of age last prep, winning a few races in the country and establishing herself as a decent mare that could qualify for the Country Championships. Trial win a couple of weeks ago was quite good and on breeding, should handle wet ground.

I think 5 He’s A Given (Bet Now: $4.60) is the best gamble on the program, purely at the odds on offer. Jungle Edge is the best swimmer in Australia…I can easily make a case that He’s A Given is the second best. He eats mud for breakfast, especially on his home track here at Warwick Farm. Thought he was excellent from the back first up at Canterbury behind Isorich, but a heavy Warwick Farm track is his go in life, and Jason Collett rides him very well.

2 Dio D’Oro (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Gary Portelli trained gelding that is also a swimmer and gets conditions to suit here. He ran on a bog Canterbury surface on Friday night, and while he mainly beat provincial class horses, he still had to put them away and did so. Harder here, but is on his home track and up to 1400m should be fine.

8 High Low Bet (Bet Now: $5.00) is going really well for Chris Waller and while I think she wants further, a testing 1400m will feel like 1600m and she does love wet ground. Ran over 1400m last Wednesday on the Kenso track where she was off the bit on the turn but stayed on and was more than sound in defeat behind Feather. Leading chance here.

7 Thanks To You (Bet Now: $9.00) has got his fair share of ability. Gave them a spanking to win on debut at Kembla before going to the Kenso a few weeks back and really liked the way he finished his race off behind Discharged, clocking some of the best late splits of the race. Of course late speed means nothing if you have no early speed, but he did show early pace on debut so can sit closer in the run, and the tick over trial was quite good.

5 Promotions (Bet Now: $2.90) is a son of Exceed And Excel for James Cummings that had been frustrating punters for a little but for now, all is forgiven. Was an odds on pop when resuming at Kembla and while he had a little struggle early on in the straight, he drew clear late and was far too good. Has handled wet ground in the past, upside and this is a winnable race.

3 Chat (Bet Now: $5.50) is a John Thompson trained gelding that is racing really well this time in. Impressive win here two back in a race which has produced four winners. Then raced here again last start and did too much work on speed, but stuck on well in defeat when fourth to Through The Cracks. Nash on from an inside gate, hard fit, he’s likeable.

This should be a real slog, so I want to be on the best stayer, and for mine, that is clearly 5 Agosto (Bet Now: $5.50). Just found the mile too short here first up behind Missybeel before going 2100m at Gosford last week where the tight track didn’t suit him at all when third to Sea Spirit. Blinkers go on first time, handles wet ground and he’ll be the strongest at the end I’m sure.

Fitter and up in trip on wet ground looks a good recipe for the Richard Litt trained 9 Joe’s Joy (Bet Now: $21.00). This mare had a few weeks off before racing over the mile at Gosford last week where she was back off the speed and was never really a winning threat, but did make ground. Up in trip on her home track, getting her toe in, she’s a knockout chance.

8 Concessions (Bet Now: $21.00) could be a sneaky chance at odds here for Scott Singleton. Ran over 2200m at Scone last start when last in the small field before being presented into clear air and loomed large to beat Knight Star, but that galloper showed good ticker late and was too good. This girl has won on heavy ground before. The other two runs were in the Group l Vinery and the other, she pulled her head off in front.

1200m is short of his best, but there’s just something about 11 Elkano (Bet Now: $31.00) that I like and I’ll take a punt on him first up. Clare Cunningham has taken his time with this guy. Hasn’t raced since Jan 18 2019 when giving them a spanking at Canberra, but prior to that, had showed good ability. Had two trials in September before being spelled again. Back again and loved the way he closed off in a trial behind Pandemic. 1200m is short of his best, but he has a bit of quality.

6 Knickpoint (Bet Now: $1.75) is a smart animal for James Cummings that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since the final day of Cup Week at Flemington when midfield over 1400m behind Banquo, who pushed Microphone hard last Saturday at Caulfield, so that form clearly reads well for this. Also loved his trial here recently, and on wet ground too.

I think Gwenda Markwell has 2 Grand Bernini(Bet Now: $27.00) flying. Gee it was a big win two back at Kembla after sitting wide no cover throughout on speed. Proved that was no fluke w

BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 He’s A Given

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Hallelujah Boy

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 11 Elkano

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 7

Leg Three: 3, 5, 8, 9

Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 9, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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