12/12/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Towton Cup day

The Ascot Summer Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Towtwon Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Towton Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Towton Cup

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4 Express Time (Bet Now: $2.60) on top. Neville Parnham trained mare that is four weeks between runs since racing over 1000m here where she had the suck run in behind the speed and when she got clear, looked the winner. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to State Attorney. Gets firmer footing this time around and draws soft. Hard to beat.

6 Seminole Brave (Bet Now: $4.40) is a very interesting runner. Gino Poletti trained gelding that resumes after a promising opening prep during the Winter, which saw him win his first two starts. Form around him doesn’t read too bad for this and I’ve liked what I have seen from him in a couple of trials to get ready. Market will tell you if he’s good to go fresh or not.

10 Scooter’s Machine (Bet Now: $13.00) hasn’t really measured up in town before but he has got the right racing pattern to give himself a sight. Attempted to lead throughout at Bunbury last time out and gave a solid kick from the front. Just couldn’t quite finish the race off when second to Tradensia, a proven Saturday class horse. Like him back to 1200m, should be near the front and running a bold race.

7 Sheza Chalmer (Bet Now: $2.25) looks an exciting prospect for Bernie Miller and I think she can make it three on the bounce. Her last two starts, both wins, have come over 1200m at Bunbury, and on face value she hasn’t beaten much, but she’s time good time in the wins and out of the maiden win two back, there has already been a couple of winners. Some of these are at the end of their prep whereas she is on an upward spiral.

9 Smashing (Bet Now: $4.00) is on the seven day back up for Neville Parnham after contesting the Lee Steere last Saturday. She had a suck run in behind the speed and did try hard, but just lacked the winning turn of foot to be a threat late when fifth. Better suited back to 1200m and should get run of the race from the gate. Leading contender.

2 First View (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Simon Miller trained three year old that comes back to 1200m after contesting the WA Guineas where he just went too keen in the run and that left him with no petrol tickets left for the mile. Better suited back to 1200m, and the tempo should be genuine, so he’ll get his chance to relax in the run and finish off strong.

1 Don’t Fuss (Bet Now: $2.10) back to 1000m looks the one to beat. Team Pearce trained gelding that ran over 1200m two weeks back here and closed off quite gamely when second to Carocapo, with that horse getting control in front and proving too good, just. Gets a good set up here to sit off the speed and launch, and Pike steers.

3 Hoboken (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Neville Parnham trained sprinter that resumes. He is a horse who isn’t normally a noted fresh performer, but thought his trial behind Trekking was more than encouraging I thought in fast time. Does tend to race better at Belmont but off the trial, think he has to be respected against these.

6 Mia Dolce (Bet Now: $7.00) looks well suited back to 1000m. They’ve tried to step her out over more ground this prep, and she just hasn’t reacted to it. The record says her best form is over the short course, so back to 1000m is a positive from her. From gate one, will be interesting to see what they do, whether they opt for cover or hold up.

4 Phoneme (Bet Now: $3.10) is racing well at the moment and I think can take this out. Michael Lane trained gelding that ran over this track/distance last Saturday where he got back in the run off a moderate tempo and worked home okay without threatening when third to Mr Delegator. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.

1 Kelly’s Callisto (Bet Now: $8.00) will land near the front and give a sight for Adam Durrant. Attempted to lead throughout over this track/distance two weeks ago where he led, got control and gave a reasonable kick in front. Just felt the pinch late when fifth to Tollman. He’ll give a sight here I’m sure. Last bit will be the test.

Fitter and up to the mile, think 2 Mr Kunafa (Bet Now: $21.00) deserves another chance. Resumed over 1200m here two weeks back where he got back in the run, was very keen, and had nothing left for the straight behind Resortman. He’s much better suited at this distance range so think he deserves another look in an open race.

5 Cambist (Bet Now: $3.80) looks to be flying for Robyn Lockwood and could be a sneaky Perth Cup chance. She was outstanding against the race shape two weeks ago over the mile here, closing off with real purpose late behind Tollman, her second good run from as many races this prep. Third up, up to 1800m, hard to beat.

This looks a lovely race for 6 Em Tee Aye (Bet Now: $3.80). The 1800m is a query, but he’s got the right racing pattern and if he gets control, I think he has a bit on these in terms of class to get home. Led and was very brave in defeat in the WA Guineas last time out, just getting caught late by Watch Me Dance. If he lead and can get a cheap time of it, he wins.

8 Morning Song (Bet Now: $14.00) gets a jockey upgrade on recent runs with Johnston-Porter taking over. Ran over 2200m here last Saturday and I just think didn’t run out the staying trip well enough in a plain effort behind Adornment. Much better suited at 1800m, gets the senior rider on and can run a much improve race.

I’m with 2 Resortman (Bet Now: $2.15) for the Michael Lane team. Ordinary ride didn’t help his cause first up, but Yuill was much more positive on him two weeks ago over 1200m and the result was a dominant win in good time. Back to 1100m is the query with him, but he’s found winning form quickly and could well hold it.

Back to 1100m I don’t mind for the Simon Miller trained mare 6 Platinum Bullet (Bet Now: $5.00). Resumed over 1200m here a fortnight back and she was a real eye catcher from near last in the run, finishing off with real purpose late when second to Resortman. If she can get a decent three wide drag up into the race and be within range 400m out, she can win.

8 Downforce (Bet Now: $6.50) is a big watch here. Neville Parnham trains this four year old, who returns to racing as a gelding and the recent evidence suggests that operation could be the making of him. He went like a jet in winning a 1000m trial here earlier this week and ran very fast time. Market will be interesting to see what it does with him.

The significant jockey booking of Pike on 4 Sugar Cain (Bet Now: $4.20) is leaning me her way. This mare has had five wins in her career, with four of those wins being when Pike has steered. He has ridden the mare ten times for four wins and four placings, so she really only runs well for him, and her run last Saturday wasn’t too bad behind Adornment. My only concern with her is the seven day back up record is plain, but the one time she did win on the back up, Pike was riding.

1 Come Right Back (Bet Now: $4.50) has been up a little while but continues to race really well for Adam Durrant. Ran last Saturday at this track/distance where he was back in the run and never really a winning threat, but wasn’t too bad late behind Adornment. Gets the 3kg claim for Hefel and should prove hard to beat.

2 Pambella (Bet Now: $4.80) should be suited back up in trip. Neville Parnham trained mare that found the track too wet two back in the Ascot Cup before coming back to the mile two weeks ago and was okay late against the race shape behind Tollman. Better suited here I feel and she does have a touch of quality about her when right.

It’s hard to get away from 3 Royal Command (Bet Now: $2.20), who should confirm his status as a leading Perth Cup contender with a win here. Dominant winner of the Tatts Cup two weeks ago. Pike rode him like he was the best horse in the race and he duly saluted like he was the best horse in the race. Just think he has to hold his form to win again.

10 Money Maher (Bet Now: $6.00) is crying out for more ground. Just the race shape wasn’t exactly his go two weeks ago over the mile here but eventually got off heels and worked home strongly to run a close up third to Tollman. He’s crying out for more ground, which is what he gets here, and has more upside than most. Hard to beat.

4 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $10.00) is the interesting runner. Team Williams trained gelding that comes through the Tatts Cup from two weeks ago where he wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Royal Command but at the same time, he had his chance to do more damage. That was his first look at this distance range, so perhaps he’ll take improvement off that run.

7 Kitgum (Bet Now: $6.00) looks well placed here. Has had two runs back from a spell, each coming over 1200m here. Latest of those runs was a few weeks back where he had a good run in transit just off the speed and loomed to win, but like most in the race, just no answers for Home In Five, who was impressive. Hard to beat against these.

6 Island Missole (Bet Now: $6.50) deserves another chance. The Gangemi team trains this gelding, who has been pretty good since coming to WA from NSW. Latest ran came at this track/distance two weeks ago where he had the suck run in behind and I thought he got out in time to threaten, but just petered on the run late in the piece. Was going super prior to that, so prepared to give him another look.

14 Wakan Tanka (Bet Now: $10.00) is racing in good form at the moment for Neville Parnham. Last couple of runs have come at this track/distance, scoring an impressive win two back before racing here two weeks ago and finding the line nicely when third to She’s Got Merit. If he continues to hold his form, he’ll be around the mark again.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Sugar Cain

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Sheza Chalmer

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 7 Kitgum

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 3, 10

Leg Four: 6, 7, 9, 10, 14

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