12/10/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm

A nine race program has been assembled for Eagle Farm this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Keen to bet on 3 Sir Barnabus (Bet Now: $4.20) if we can get decent odds about him. He resumed over the mile at Doomben two weeks ago and I thought his effort in defeat behind Oink was enormous. He was last on the fence in the run before peeling widest on the turn and finishing off with purpose to run third to a reignited Oink. Up to 1800m, fitter, bigger track…ticks plenty of boxes.

6 Tatcee (Bet Now: $2.25) looks to have come back in good order for Chris Waller. This mare was second up when racing at Eagle Farm three weeks ago when getting a lovely sit just off the speed under Fradd and once he got the mare out wide and into clear air, given her staying background, she was always going to be strong late and proved too good. Harder here, but stack of upside and in form.

4 Polemic (Bet Now: $3.80) looks the only other winning chanced. He is three weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance when getting a lovely run just off the speed and finishing best to nail an in form Trevelyan near the peg. Remains down in the weights and a bit of juice in the track will suit. My concern is that everything fell into place last time and he just got in. Harder here.

Gee I’m really keen to see 5 Strike (Bet Now: $1.80) debut. Son of Spirit Of Boom for the Snowden camp that didn’t contest the 2YO trials on the Kenso. He instead trialled the following Friday and IMO, he’s been the standout trialler of the juveniles. He looks to have a beautiful action and he bolted up to win his trial in fast time, with plenty in hand it seemed. If he runs up to the way he looked there, they won’t be beating him.

9 Palate (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Better Than Ready filly for Scott Morrisey that is having start one. She led all the way in a two horse trial over 1000m at the Gold Coast so hard to get a real guide on her ability, but she led, looked to do everything right and when asked for an effort, she responded. Drawing gate one so she can follow the rail is a definite advantage.

2 Disco Lights (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Showcasing for Liam Birchley and we know the stable can produce an early season juvenile winner. He trialled a couple of weeks back here when on speed and not really knocked about when third to Market Trader, who wasn’t too great last Saturday on debut, but he draws to get a run near the speed and have to respect the stable.

The high chance of rain is the reason why I’m with 1 The Odyssey (Bet Now: $6.00). On face value, he’s been really ordinary this time in. His trial was ordinary and his two runs back from a spell have been well below what he showed as a 2YO. But the key might well be a wet track, because that is clearly when he has raced best, and I think back to 1000m will also help his cause.

2 Jagged Edge (Bet Now: $3.50) is another facing D-Day. He has been a beaten fav in both runs back from a spell, so from a punting perspective, he’s been disappointing, but in each run, he has been wide no cover on speed, so there has been genuine excuses for him, but you need deep pockets to keep buttering up. His best is clearly good enough to win and is one of the hardest to beat.

3 Courseshewill (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Chris Munce trained three year old that was well backed when resuming over 1000m at the Sunny Coast but just copped too much pressure in front and felt the pinch late when third to Clever Miss. From the gate, Cormac has a few options and her 2YO form certainly doesn’t read too bad for a race of this quality I think here.

9 Obelos (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. Chris Waller trains this import, who is yet to break through in Australia but I think his time is near. He was 1550m back to 1350m last time out at Doomben and that probably just beat him in the end when a narrow third to Kathmandu. Back up in trip and onto a track with give in it, he looks one of the hardest to beat in a very winnable race.

4 Elixir (Bet Now: $3.10) is three weeks between runs for Les Kelly since racing at this track/distance when near the speed and giving a good kick in the straight but couldn’t quite hold out the finale of Enterprise Prince, who has since ticked that form off with another win last Saturday. Like he’s had the extra time off between runs and he should get a sweet trip from the gate.

7 Beat The Beast (Bet Now: $5.50) is a hard fit/in form galloper for the Natalie McCall stable on the quick back up after winning last Friday night at the Sunny Coast, sitting on speed throughout and despite being out of petrol tickets, had enough in hand late to get the win. He is a horse who does thrive when he gets his toe in, so if the forecast for rain is right, he comes right into play.

Provided there’s no second up syndrome, 5 Ballistic Boy (Bet Now: $3.10) looks one of the better bets on the program. Had trialled up really well prior to resuming over 1200m at Doomben two weeks ago where he got well back in the run but got dream inside splits and dashed hard, just missing out on picking up Xanthus. Bigger track, fitter, extra 200m…perfectly placed to win IMO.

1 Gem Of Scotland (Bet Now: $2.40) is the class runner of the field. Rex Lipp trains this filly, who won impressively first up at Doomben before racing there again two weeks ago and I think Nothdurft got the tactics wrong on her. Just waited too long to get going and the leader Better Reflection stole a winning break. Jimmy Orman is back on…my query is a strong 1400m with the big weight.

Want to give 3 Miss Cavallo (Bet Now: $14.00) a chance at odds. This girl ran last Saturday at the Gold Coast and was ridden really poorly by Dan Griffin. Little initiative in the run and her fate was sealed after 200m when back near last in the run and between runners. She’s better than that, and has run well in town before, so her best is clearly good enough to run well.

11 Advance Warning (Bet Now: $3.00) looks one of the better bets right across Australia for Saturday. This son of Lucas Cranach stepped out to a staying trip for the first time in his career at Doomben last time. And the result? A 2.5L romp at Doomben, and had he got out sooner, the margin could have been further. Now at 2200m, and with the likelihood of a rain affected track, it’ll take a good performance to beat him.

6 Ivy’s Court (Bet Now: $10.00) is racing well for Chris Waller but she can’t quite crack it for a win. She was five weeks between runs when racing over the mile at Doomben last time where she was very one paced when asked for an effort but was good late when a close up third to Get Stuck In, who had no luck last Saturday. She’s not out to a staying trip…she’ll run well, but I couldn’t back her to win.

8 Holbrook (Bet Now: $8.00) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but Scott Morrisey has him going well and in form without winning. He ran over 2000m at Doomben a fortnight when near the speed throughout and gave a good kick under Du Plessis but Pleased had the drop on the speed and was too good late. Has won up to 2200m and he strikes a winnable race.

I’ll take a chance on 11 Golden Mean (Bet Now: $11.00), a daughter of Congrats who is second up for David Vandyke. I don’t think she beat much when resuming over 1200m at Doomben but it was a big win from the back, and unexpected in betting because she was a notable drifter late, but finished off with real purpose to get the win. The knock is that her lone wet track run, she was awful, so if we get rain, that’s the knock.

Couldn’t back 10 Francisca (Bet Now: $4.80) to win with borrowed money but she does have the talent to win this…problem is you need deep pockets. She was hard in the market when racing over the Doiomben 1350m two weeks ago where she attempted to lead all the way, something different for her, and tried hard, but couldn’t see it out when fourth to Mr Storm. Couldn’t back her to win personally, but she’s going well enough to figure in the finish.

Not a Long Shot but next best is 5 Smug Satisfaction (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing in a real purple patch of form at the moment for the Michael Costa team. She gave them an absolute spanking over 1200m here two back before backing up a week later over the same track/distance where she was near a good speed and just felt the pinch late when pipped by La Scopa. With cover from gate one, she’ll be dangerous.

3 Scallopini (Bet Now: $2.40) looks the winner. Steve O’Dea trains this talented five year old. On the quick back up after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where on face value, he was disappointing, but given the winner ran near sub 33 for the final 600m, Scallopini would have had to run near sub 32 to win…no chance of doing that, so he did a remarkable job to get as close as he did. Fitter, 1400m, potential give in the track…perfect set up.

Have to give 7 Cadogan (Bet Now: $3.40) another look. Thought he was really poorly ridden by Jackson Murphy at Doomben two weeks ago. Was back in the ruck but tracking up the right horses and should have peeled out to get those in front going. But he was asleep and those back went around him and he ended up in an awful spot and it was race over. Noteworthy he was hard in the market and supported, so respecting that market push.

Gee 5 The Avenger (Bet Now: $8.50) is a consistent animal. He does tend to save his best racing for Brisbane, as we’ve seen in recent times. Couldn’t quite reach El Campeador two back before running on strongly two weeks ago but stablemate Fortensky stole a winning break and was too good. Strong winner over this track/distance three back and a repeat effort will see him go close.

Looks to be really good placement by Stuart Kendrick when it comes to 7 Tambo’s Mate (Bet Now: $2.70), a talented four year old who resumed over the 1110m at Doomben two weeks ago where it was a really odd steer. Had gate one, but that was not taken to advantage and he ended up pulling hard before conceding ground, peeling wider and finishing off strongly to run second. Thrives on wet ground and should have good improvement so hopefully we get that forecast for rain.

9 Beacon (Bet Now: $14.00) is a threat for me. The Edmonds camp have this bloke going well this time in but he can’t quite crack it for a win. Resumed with a narrow second at Ipswich prior to stepping out to the Doomben 1350m where he placed behind Time To Play. Third up, so he should be hard fit now, out to 1400m and the big tick is the forecast for rain. If this track gets give, he’ll be terribly hard to beat.

10 Denarius (Bet Now: $31.00) is another who won’t mind getting his toe in. He resumed at the midweeks at Ipswich over 1200m where he was never really likely but I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off nearer the inside when fourth to the in form Solar Star. Fitter, bigger track and a bit of give in the ground, and he’s a proven city performer, so he’s not the worst.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 11 Advance Warning

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Strike

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Golden Mean

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 11

Leg Two: 5, 6, 9, 10, 11

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 4, 7, 9, 10

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