One of the better race days on the Australian racing calendar is Caulfield Guineas Day and the 2019 edition this Saturday shapes up to be a beauty. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Guineas Field 🏆: View the Caulfield Guineas Field
Race 1. (12:15) Inglis Debutant Stakes 1000m
1 Rock Of Kryptonite (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is on top for me. The Price/Kent stable trains this son of Fastnet Rock, who debuts on the home track off the back of two jumpouts here, and each time he has looked impressive, being on speed and going about his business nicely with something in hand to the eye. Big advantage being at home for start one so in a tricky race, he’s on top.
9 Queen Of Rocks (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a Fastnet Rock filly for the Hayes/Dabernig stable that is having start one. This well bred filly comes here off the back of two jumpouts at Flemington. Has looked impressive each time she has stepped out, with the first one catching the eye more. Stable have had good success in this race, and did win it last year with Champagne Boom.
5 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Pride Of Dubai for the Hayes/Dabernig stable. She has had a couple of Flemington jumpouts in readiness for her first start and was given a good hit out in her most recent jumpout. Has gate one and Baster on, so think she’ll lead this field up and hold the rail, which will be a definite advantage in these early 2YO races.
Race 2. (12:50) Weekend Hussler Handicap 1400m
9 Mandela Effect (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) looks one of the leading chances. Scott Brunton trains this five year old, who resumed over 1200m on Moir night at the Valley and just had no luck at all when Poy wanted to get clear. Should have won, but instead was a fast finishing and eye catching fourth. He should eat up 1400m and the bigger track will hopefully ensure he gets clear air early.
3 Rox The Castle (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is an absolute beauty for the Kerry Edwards team. Lovely ride from Willow got him the win two back at Flemington before racing at this track/distance when again getting a good run near the speed and fighting on hard, only to be pipped late by Admiral’s Joker. This looks his bread and butter and while he’s in this kind of form, he’ll run well again.
5 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) can be an improver at odds. He resumed in the Testa Rossa on Underwood Day where they went very quick in front and he was just run off his legs throughout behind Renewal. In the end, the run wasn’t too bad and he’s much better suited at 1400m. Tempo won’t be as brutal and he can improve big time second up. Knockout chance.
Race 3. (13:25) Thoroughbred Club Stakes 1200m
Good race this. Have it between two, but going the way of 6 California Zimbol (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) for Team Snowden. She had been trialling up super prior to resuming over 1100m at Canterbury where she beat up the older horses in impressive fashion, running faster time than the other 1100m race for the meeting by two lengths. Interesting to see what the tactics are, but she can go forward if need be.
Gee it was a big first up win from 2 Loving Gaby (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS) in the Scarborough on Moir night at the Valley. She was back near last in the run and forced quite wide on the turn but unleashed a brilliant finale to get the win. Where she gets to from the gate will be interesting, and overall, not sure that race was strong re depth, but she showed during her 2YO season she has class/quality.
Giving respect to 5 Athiri (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). Was keen on this girl when she ran down the Flemmington a few weeks ago but nothing went right for her at all when Williams wanted to get clear and I think with clear air, she wins when a luckless third to Wayupinthesky. It proved though that short course racing is her go in life and with that in mind, she’s one of the hardest to beat here.
Race 4. (14:00) Northwood Plume Stakes 1200m
11 Platinum Angel (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS), with upside, can win. Market said she’d need the run when resuming over 1100m here but loved the way she found the line from near last in the run to finish second to Prophet’s Thumb, who is a more brilliant mare and had the fitness under the belt. Now Platinum Angel has fitness on her side, and up to 1200m, keen on her running well.
7 Prophet’s Thumb (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a beauty and she’ll go close. Bunched finish fresh in the McEwen before racing over 1100m here where Lane gave her a sweet steer just off the speed and once she was within striking range, her turn of foot was always going to the come to the fore and she was too good for her rivals. 1200m is the query with her, but giving her respect.
What to do with 8 Moss Trip? (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) At her best, she can clearly beat these. Just not sure what to make of last prep. She had four runs, and outside the resumption in the Millie Fox, she was really poor. Been given a good break, and has been tuned up for her return with a couple for. Rather watch than back, but she goes in all multiples just in case she brings her best.
Race 5. (14:35) Herbert Power Stakes 2400m
4 Glory Days (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to have come back in super order for Bill Thurlow. She was very good late over 1700m at Flemington two back back behind Mosh Music before going to the JRA Cup at the Valley where she was back in an on pace dominated affair but found the line strongly to run fifth. Up to 2400m, fitter, and if we do get rain, she’ll be even more hard to hold out.
3 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $3.40) looks to be going super for the Freedman camp and is ticking over beautifully towards the Melbourne Cup. Has been ridden negative in both runs back from a spell, with eyes towards the Cup, but he has hit the line with purpose each run. Getting out to a more idea trip now and from the gate, Olly can sit him a bit closer in the run this time around.
5 Haky (Bet Now: $12.00) is a fascinating runner. John Hammond trains this French stayer, who is a borderline starter for the Melbourne Cup. A top two finish would see him just about assure a start, while a win will definitely ensure he gets a start in the final 24. He’ll more than likely lead this field and run along at a decent clip. If he’s left alone, he’ll be hard to run down.
Race 6. (15:10) Thousand Guineas 1600m
It all points to 3 Flit (Bet Now: $2.20). She had the one run in Sydney, seeing her run second to star filly Libertini. She was then freshened up and ran in the Prelude, where she was a good thing beaten it seemed. Looked to have plenty to offer but had no luck in the straight behind Acting. I think if she can get clear air this time around, I think class/brilliance will get her home.
7 Missile Mantra (Bet Now: $9.00) is flying, but her racing pattern is her big downfall. She has flopped out the back in all three runs this time in and each outing she has no luck at a critical point of the race, but has been a clear eye catcher in all three runs. She’s been set for this race for a while and the prep looks to be ideal for her to launch big time in the Grand Final.
For value, I’d be including 6 St Edwards Crown (Bet Now: $41.00). She comes through the Prelude where I thought she was pretty good in defeat, sitting just off a reasonable speed and trying hard. Was okay late in the piece behind Acting. Can she win? I think not, but with an economical run, she can pinch a first four spot or perhaps place, getting some value blacktype to her name.
Race 7. (15:50) Ladbrokes Stakes 2000m
I was off him after the Chelmsford, he came out and won the George Main impressively, and now I’m back on the 5 Avilius (Bet Now: $2.15) train. Wanted to see him put a win on the board in the George Main and he did it in emphatic fashion and ran brilliant late splits in winning. He’s the hard fit horse who will eat up 2000m and will be very strong at the end.
7 Homesman (Bet Now: $3.90) does look the key threat to Avilius. His run in the Underwood was enormous. Wide no cover for the trip yet produced the quickest last 800/600/400 of the race. Just the last 200m, he couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for second to Black Heart Bart. Stable at the moment, from a punting perspective, is about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike, but this horse is the only big gun for them that’s flying.
2 Gailo Chop (Bet Now: $8.50) is back on track. Just looked in need of the run fresh behind Gatting in the Makybe Diva before going to the Underwood where he was near the speed and stuck on very well in defeat when third to Black Heart Bart. He’s getting hard fit, up to 2000m, looks the speed runner and we know that when he leads and is left alone, at his best, he’s very hard to run down.
Race 8. (16:30) Caulfield Guineas 1600m
I think only bad luck or himself is the only reasons 2 Dalasan (Bet Now: $3.50) will get beat. He’s better than these. Been on his back since day one and not going to jump off despite getting beat in the Prelude. He runs straight, he wins the race. Simple as that. No fault of Raquel Clark, but the horse does want to lay in badly, so he needs a strong left hand whip rider and Bowman is one of the best. Really confident he wins.
Forgive a horse for one poor run when it comes to 16 Express Pass (Bet Now: $21.00). Thought he was really good behind Dalasan in the Danehill before going to the Prelude where he copped the brunt of the interference caused by the Yourdeel fall. So really, it’s hard to get a gauge if he’ll run a strong mile or not, but off what he did first up and in the Danehill, can’t entirely dismiss.
Dalasan is the only horse I want to back from the Prelude, but in terms of those behind, 5 Super Seth (Bet Now: $9.50) was good considering he was another that copped bad interference from the Yourdeel fall and lost all winning hope, but picked up and was good late. If he can take advantage of the good draw, you’d have to think he’ll take some beating here.
Race 9. (17:10) Toorak Handicap 1600m
Back to a handicap level, I think a big improver is 5 Nights Watch (Bet Now: $7.00). Could easily make a case he should have beaten Age Of Chivalry first up over 1400m here before going to the Makybe Diva, where WFA just isn’t his go and was outclassed, but far from disgraced, behind Gatting. Like him back to this sort of level and off the first up run, he’s right in contention.
14 Princess Jenni (Bet Now: $6.50) looks to be ticking over beautifully. Group l winning 4YO mare that was good fresh in the Let’s Elope before going to the Stocks Stakes at the Valley where she looked in a bit of trouble on the turn but Olly weaved his magic wand and the mare finished best to win. Should get three wide cover from the gate and be very strong at the end.
Can’t drop off 1 Madison County (Bet Now: $17.00) after one run. He resumed in the Sir Rupert Clarke where I was keen on his chances and while he wouldn’t have won, he should have finished much closer. Just had no luck in the straight and pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial. Jumped out last Friday at Flemington and was good without being great. Has class and if we get a drop of rain, he comes right into play.
Race 10. (17:45) Schillaci Stakes 1100m
2 Trekking (Bet Now: $2.60) looks to be primed for a big showing here. Had been trialling up enormous in Sydney prior to resuming in the Moir and in the form guide, it probably doesn’t read great, but his effort was very good. Nature Strip got that cheap 200m sectional he needed to win and it just left those behind with an impossible task. Thought Trekking was just warming to the task late and was strong to the line and through it. Better suited on the bigger track up to 1100m and is one of the hardest to beat.
3 The Bostonian (Bet Now: $6.00) is a key chance. He resumed in the Moir and it was a definite pass mark I thought given the tempo Nature Strip set mid race, which allowed him to kick and win, leaving those behind, including The Bostonian, with a tough ask to make up any significant ground. He’s much better suited here I think and you can’t ignore what he did during the Brisbane Winter.
7 Ashlor (Bet Now: $26.00) could be an improver at odds. The fast and furious nature of the McEwen first up at the Valley a few weeks ago probably wasn’t to his liking but he stuck to the task and was good in defeat when a close up fifth to Faatinah. He is a horse who can sit on a hot speed and keep going, and from the gate, he has a few options and he’s a knockout chance.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Flit
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Dalasan
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Night’s Watch
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 13, 14
Leg Four: 2, 3
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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