The best raceday in Queensland racing history comes around on Saturday at Eagle Farm with a bumper ten race card, with four Group l events. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (10:50) : James Boag’s Premium Lancaster Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Chipanda (Bet Now: $3.40) resumed at Rosehill three weeks back and quite frankly, had she not won, it would have been a tragedy, but Avdulla got her into the clear and in the end, it was soft. Has always promised a bit, and this looks a lovely blacktype assignment.
Big Danger: 7 Sugarparma (Bet Now: $26.00) comes through the Woodlands Stakes during the Scone Carnival where she was wide most of the way yet stuck to the task pretty well in running fourth. Drawn to get good cover, and the big spacious surroundings of Eagle Farm will really suit her.
Roughie: 8 Greyt Start (Bet Now: $101.00) rises in grade but her effort last start at Toowoomba was of merit. She bombed the start and her saddle slipped so she was done after that yet she still made up ground on the line. Not sure she can win, but a must for exotics.
Race Two (11:20) : Radiotab Wayne Wilson Mile 1600m:
Back Me: 14 Feltre (Bet Now: $41.00) comes through the Members Cup at Doomben where he got back in the run and finished off nicely late behind dead heat winners Rudy and Jumbo Prince. Big track and a strong tempo is what this horse needs and he will get it here, so he is a definite threat.
Big Danger: 16 Religify (Bet Now: $4.80) is a beauty for Chris Waller. He looked the winner of the BRC Sprint last time out but was bloused on the peg by Snippets Land. He is an absolute bulldog who loves a fight and I think the extra 250m will be no issue if he leads comfortably and the track dries up.
Roughie: 6 Hi World (Bet Now: $12.00) is the clear class runner engaged here. He resumed on April 30 at Caulfield over 1400m and stuck on well behind Group l performer Charmed Harmony. Recent Gold Coast trial was encouraging and he is a Group l performer.
Race Three (11:55) : Bundaberg Rum Dane Ripper Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: How can you pick anything other than 3 Ghisoni (Bet Now: $1.60). I really think Godolphin pulled the wrong rein by sending here instead of the Stradbroke, because off her Glenlogan win, she would have been a clear top pick for me. Still, this is a nice consolation.
Big Danger: If Ghisoni is going to get beat, it’ll come courtesy of 4 Cradle Me (Bet Now: $7.00), who tried hard in the Glenlogan Park but was simply no match. She loves a firm track and will do no work from the lovely gate.
Roughie: 10 Telepathic (Bet Now: $10.00) is a class mare that resumes for Chris Waller after running down the track behind Zanbagh in the Emancipation in the Autumn. Thought she trialled well recently at Warwick Farm, and she could have easily resumed in Sydney, but she comes here with Moreira on board.
Race Four (12:30) : Mirvac Queensland Guineas 1600m:
Back Me : 2 Tivaci (Bet Now: $10.00) was specked at odds when resuming in the Fred Best and he ran a beauty against the bias when fourth to Counterattack, beaten just over two lengths. He can be a real nightmare to follow, but there is not as much depth and quality here, and the step up to the mile on the more spacious track will suit this son of High Chaparral.
Big Danger: 13 Kimberley Star (Bet Now: $9.50) bounced back to some sort of form with a closing third in the Scone Guineas behind impressive winner Serene Majesty. Fitness is her issue, but the big track will really suit her, and she does have fresh legs coming into this.
Roughie: 8 Invincible Knight (Bet Now: $26.00) is putting together a little picket fence. It started at Kembla Grange before winning the Wagga Guineas. He then ran a couple of weeks back at the midweeks at Canterbury and lumped 60.kg to a brave yet impressive victory. Little query on a track with give in it, but stable is going very well and this is a winnable race for sure if he brings his best.
Race Five (13:05) : Mirvac QTC Cup 1300m:
Back Me: 6 Perfect Fit (Bet Now: $7.00) is a class mare that is a last start Group l winner in New Zealand, though I will say that race had no depth to it all. Still, she is a last start Group l winner and she did win like Black Caviar in a recent Cambridge trial win. If she has handled the trip over, she is a live chance.
Roughie: 16 Trubia (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the BRC Sprint where it was his first real test against the big boys and he handled it well in running fourth, beaten under two lengths. Loves a big track and it would be great to see Bobby El-Issa come back to the big stage and pick up a feature race.
Big Danger: 15 Miss Cover Girl (Bet Now: $26.00) was pretty good in the Bright Shadow considering she was wide no cover for the trip. I’ve been on her back so many times and has let me down, but maybe the bigger surroundings could spark her back into form.
Race Six (13:40) : Evergreen Turf Brisbane Cup 2400m:
Back Me: 3 Real Love (Bet Now: $4.50) looks the main threat after being given a 12/10 from Brad Rawiller to take out the Premiers Cup three weeks back, sitting in the 1/1 before presenting on the turn and her will to win got her home. The weight won’t be an issue for her, and really, she has beaten up most of these in recent times, so she is a massive chance of winning again.
Big Danger: I’m giving great respect to 8 Benzini (Bet Now: $9.00), who closed off strongly in that race mentioned above where he gave away a huge start and made up significant ground near the inside. Gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Real Love, draws better and has more upside.
Roughie: On face value, 11 Astronomos (Bet Now: $13.00) was disappointing last start behind Col ‘N’ Lil at Doomben, but I think he is a horse who is better when he has clear room and is not restricted. Harder here, but he has upside and stable is going really well.
Race Seven (14:20) : BMW JJ Atkins 1600m:
Back Me: Going with 16 Candika (Bet Now: $7.50) . Her effort against the double bias in the Sires Produce was outstanding, really savaging the line out wide as a filly who will eat up the mile on a big track, which is what she gets here. Sprouted wings to win on a soft on debut, so moisture won’t be an issue, and she has been specifically set for this race since the Magic Millions in January.
Big Danger: Stevie Wonder could see the run of 9 Sacred Elixir (Bet Now: $4.00) in that race mentioned above. Got too far back and in the end, it was pretty much a barrier trial. Big track and the mile looks perfect and he will be very strong. I think he’ll really come into his own in the Spring/Autumn as a real Derby horse.
Roughie: 8 Jaws Of Steel (Bet Now: $16.00) arguably should have won the Sires Produce in Sydney during the Carnival before being freshened up and trialling well before going to the 1400m at Flemington where he was clearly the best run of the race behind Sebring Dream. From all reports, he has handled the trip north quite well and on his last two outings, he is a live chance here.
Race Eight (15:00) : Channel Seven Queensland Derby 2400m:
Back Me: I really think it’s 7 Eagle Way’s (Bet Now: $4.80) to lose. He went under the guard of most prior to the Grand Prix, where he was outstanding in defeat behind Mackintosh given he overcame the bias to go down narrowly. The negative is the price. He looks rock bottom odds now, but he’s still the clear horse to beat IMO.
Big Danger: 1 Howard Be Thy Name (Bet Now: $4.00) is a beauty for Darren Weir who was also super in the Grand Prix. He got a fair way back in the run and had to change course a couple of times when running third. He is the SA Derby winner so he has the runs on the board and he has the Weir polish.
Roughie: I think the forgotten horse is 4 Cylinder Beach (Bet Now: $26.00). Im not sure what happened in the Grand Prix but he was pretty ordinary after receiving every chance. If you take that run out, his form is very good, and he has always given the indication he will get the distance. He is the overs.
Race Nine (15:40) : AAMI Stradbroke Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Azkadellia (Bet Now: $3.30) looks the one to beat. Looked to trial well here before going to the 10000 where the bias probably beat her when second to Music Magnate. She does meet that horse 1kg worse off here, but there is just so much more upside with her, and the big tick for her is that her regular rider Oliver takes the ride. Fast tempo, big track, moisture…ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: 1 Black Heart Bart (Bet Now: $6.00) is here for redemption after failing horribly in this race last year where he was stuck four and five wide no cover for the trip. He is now with Darren Weir and he has been in outstanding, highlighted by his brilliant win in the Goodwood (1200m) at Morphettville last start. Topweights don’t have the best record in the race, but he is a proven weight carrier and is a last start Group l winner.
Roughie: The knockout hope for mine is 17 Takedown (Bet Now: $21.00). He won’t know himself with 50.5kg on his back and looks the best three year old chance in the race after a gallant second to Counterattack in the Fred Best. That horse did sit three wide no cover and was dominant in winning, but the bigger track will suit Takedown better and he meets Counterttack 2kg better here. He’ll run a huge race.
Race Ten (16:20) : Treasury Casino & Hotel Queensland Oaks 2400m:
Back Me: 10 Dawnie Perfect (Bet Now: $10.00) was the real eye catcher in the main lead up, the Roses (2000m). She got a long way back in a slowly run race yet made up a stack of ground out wide. She will love getting onto a bigger track and the 2400m is something she will just eat up.
Big Danger: 19 Provocative (Bet Now: $7.50) is a handy filly for Tony Pike that took care of an average lot last time out at Ipswich but she did it nicely despite doing plenty wrong in the run. She is a filly with real promise and good upside, and the 2400m will be no issue at all.
Roughie: 8 Alaskan Rose (Bet Now: $21.00) also comes through the Roses where she got back and wide and just never really looked comfortable around the tight Doomben circuit. Her run under the circumstances was pretty good I thought. She has always given the impression of being a good filly and perhaps the bigger track is what she is looking for.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 5 Azkadellia
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 Eagle Way
VALUE: Race Seven Number 16 Candika
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 14, 16
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 9, 17, 18
Leg Four: 4, 8, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19
$50 Investment= 3.64% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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