A couple of lead ups to the Blue Diamond as well as the first Group l of 2017, the CF Orr Stakes (1400m) highlight a fab card of racing at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:30) : Thebigscreencompany.com.au Handicap – 1800m:
Back Me: 6 Hipparchus (Best Odds: $2.60) was on the seven day back up for Chris Waller when racing over 1800m at Flemington two weeks back and aided by a lovely patient steer from Melham, the stayer shove into the clear and finished best for a deserved win. Would have liked to have seen him at 2000m, but I don’t think that’s a huge negative.
Big Danger: I could certainly have a speck each way on 1 Signoff (Best Odds: $13.00) at that price. He has been known to produce against the norm first up and I think you have to respect the fact that connections are persisting with the horse when they really could have pulled the pin and nobody would have begrudged that. 4kg over the minimum for a horse who was close up in a Melbourne Cup.
Long Shot: 8 Like A Carousel (Best Odds: $81.00) probably won’t be winning this, but I’ll keep an eye on him heading forward towards the staying contests. He resumed over the Moonee Valley mile where he got back in the run and couldn’t quicken but gee his final 75m and through the line was really good. 2000m+ is his go, but look for him to work home again.
Race Two (13:05) : Hyland Race Colours Autumn Stakes – 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Peacock (Best Odds: $4.80) looks the way to go here. He was given a peach steer by Dunn to win the Gothic at this track/distance in the Spring to end the prep. Jumped out well prior to resuming against the older horses in the Australia Stakes (1200m) where he was far from disgraced behind Malaguerra. That’s clearly the A-Grade form for this.
Big Danger: 1 Attention (Best Odds: $4.50) is another three year old that resumes against the older horses at Stakes level, this one against Music Magnate in the Expressway where he had a nice sit just off the speed but just lacked the WFA toughness to knuckle down. Back to his own age now, fitter and performed well in Melbourne during the Spring.
Long Shot: 7 Redouble (Best Odds: $16.00) is a talented colt for Team Hawkes who comes to Victoria after kicking off his prep in Sydney with two okay efforts on soft ground, the first of those behind subsequent Randwick winner Raiment. Only have to go back to his first prep to see what he is capable of, and we know the record the stable has when they switch states with their runners.
Race Three (13:40) : Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (F) – 1100m:
Back Me: Sticking fat with 1 Limestone (Best Odds: $2.60). There was a lot to like about her win in the Preview given she got into a nasty spot on a couple of occasions under Lane and looked in a bit of trouble before taking the gaps and bursting through to win despite laying in. Has upside and is in the right stable.
Big Danger: 3 Catchy (Best Odds: $2.30) is regarded as the number one seed for the Hayes/Dabernig camp when it comes to the Blue Diamond so you would have to rate her quite highly here. She has just been so impressive in both career runs to date, each resulting in soft/dominant wins. Form around her reads so well, she has that lethal turn of foot and enormous upside.
Long Shot: 4 Roomooz (Best Odds: $8.50) is another interesting one here, this one for Tony McEvoy. This beautifully bred filly debuted at Morphettville and despite sitting wide throughout. She drew clear for a good win. Problem is she beat nothing flash. Trial win at Geelong was quite encouraging so it might be worth seeing what the market does.
Race Four (14:15) : Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G) – 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Pariah (Best Odds: $3.60) is the very interesting runner here. Second up for Team Snowden off the sack of a somewhat surprising win on debut in the Canonbury, and even though Menari should have won, he showed a lovely turn of foot to win and impressively. Stable knows what it takes to win a Blue Diamond and this horse fits the profile.
Big Danger: 2 Property (Best Odds: $4.50) had confident market support when racing in the Preview and aided by a peach from Williams, he proved far too good for his rivals. He was 1000m back from 1100m so back up to the latter trip should only be beneficial, he draws a lovely gate and he rates highly.
Long Shot: 1 Azazel (Best Odds: $10.00) for me to turn the tables on Property. He was first up in the Preview where he got back to worse than midfield in the run before coming wide and finishing his race off with real purpose to run second. He has the upside and will be strong late. One to beat for mine here.
Race Five (14:50) : Kevin Hayes Stakes – 1200m:
Back Me: Keen on 1 Jennifer Lynn (Best Odds: $4.00) to turn the tables on Navagio. She resumed down the straight at Flemington where she had a lovely run near the speed and looked to travel well before Rawiller clicked her up and there was a kick there, but no match late for the swooper. Runs well at Caulfield and has the run under the belt now.
Big Danger: 6 Navagio (Best Odds: $11.00) was first up too and she was very impressive in winning given she was back near last in the run and had to make up several lengths over the final 200m. Trained on the track and from all reports worked well on Tuesday.
Long Shot: 8 Savanna Amour (Best Odds: $13.00) is a nice looking type trained by the Meagher camp who came to Victoria to target the Inglis Dash at Flemington she looked a serious threat with around 150m but just lacked the killer punch. That could well be the case again here, but I will include her in exotics.
Race Six (15:25) : Schweppes Rubiton Stakes – 1100m:
Back Me: Well we weren’t sure if 1 Chautauqua (Best Odds: $2.60) was going to resume here, but he is and just looks the winner. Didn’t come up in the Spring after a brutal Autumn and was tipped out after a failure in the Manikato. Trial at Rosehill was very good to the eye, he has these covered on ratings, and really, if the real Chautauqua turns up, take any price.
Big Danger: 8 I Am A Star (Best Odds: $9.00) is a high class filly that resues for the Shane Nicholls yard. She ran some super races during the Spring and ended her prep on the right note when beating the older mares in the Myer Classic. Goes very well fresh and looked very good to my eye in a Cranbourne trial on Monday.
Long Shot: 6 Super Cash (Best Odds: $13.00) is a talented mare that resumes for the Andrew Noblet stable. Injury and barrier mishaps probably didn’t allow us to see the best of her during the Spring, though she did win fresh, then was enormous down the straight on Derby Day before bumping into Lucky Hussler at Sandown. Very good at the jump outs and she does have a lethal fresh record.
Race Seven (16:05) : Ladbrokes CF Orr Stakes – 1400m:
Back Me: Keen on 1 Black Heart Bart (Best Odds: $3.90) to turn the tables on Malaguerra here. He looked lost around Moonee Valley in the Australia Stakes and was seemingly going nowhere on the turn but he picked himself up to be only beaten a couple of lengths. Much. Much better suited around Caulfield and up to 1400m. Keen.
Big Danger: 12 Divine Prophet (Best Odds: $10.00) is the Caulfield Guineas winner who looks set for a big Autumn prep. He hasn’t been sighted since scoring that great win over the mile here in the Spring, helped by an absolute gem of a ride from Dwayne Dunn. His trials leading in have been great to the eye, goes well fresh and draws a lovely gate.
Long Shot: 9 He’s Our Rokkii (Best Odds: $15.00) is a high class four year old that is first up for the Hayes/Dabernig team. He really stepped it up a notch or two during the Spring, highlighted by his Toorak triumph. 1400m fresh is a good starting point for him and he has looked strong at the jump outs.
Race Eight (16:45) : The Resimax Group TS Carlyon Cup – 1600m:
Long Shot: 1 Tally (Best Odds: $31.00) is a talented stayer that resumes for Godolphin. He ran quite well during the Spring, highlighted by a third to star stablemate Hartnell in the Turnbuill (2000m). He then failed in the Caulfield Cup before running gamely behind Oceanographer in the Lexus. Latest jump out was solid and first up at the mile indicates he’s forward enough to sprint well fresh.
Big Danger: 2 Burning Front (Best Odds: $4.40) is a ripping campaigner for Darren Weir who is never far away from the action and rarely leaves the races without a cheque. He was short priced elect in the VOBIS Gold Star (1500m) at teh Valley where Brad Rawiller sent him to the front and from there, it was pretty painless, rolling along at a decent clip and giving nothing else a look in. More depth here, but hard fit and in winning form, plus he likes Caulfield.
Long Shot: 10 Divine Mr Artie (Best Odds: $14.00) looks a leading contender after racing over 1400m at Flemington a fortnight back where the slow tempo was clearly against him, as well as the negative steer from Williams yet the horse still savaged the line to run third to Mubakkir. Really good record on his home track here, maps well if he presses forward and he should take some holding out.
Race Nine (17:25) : Mypunter.com Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes – 1200m:
Back Me: I’m going to take the gamble with the classy 2 Abbey Marie (Best Odds: $9.00). She looked set to be a real force in the Spring off the back of a brilliant opening prep in the Autumn, but injury made made sure we didn’t see her in the Spring. First up off a long break at an unsuitable trip is the obvious query, but she has the class, lethal finishing burst, and I am sure she would have had a jump out or two at Cranbourne.
Big Danger: 9 Prussian Vixen (Best Odds: $17.00) deserves a crack at blacktype. She proved too good for Lyuba two back here at big odds then proved that was no fluke when going to the Valley and beating all bar the above average Ameristralia. She is the hard fit runner who will be out of trouble on speed. She’ll give a great sight at odds for sure.
Long Shot: 13 Written Era (Best Odds: $13.00) is poorly weighted given her rating, but gee her effort fresh at Ballarat was just enormous. They walked in front and given she was first up and back last in the run, she really had no right to close off, but she did and would have picked them up in a couple of strides. I think there is blacktype in her. Not sure if it’s here but she is a big watch.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Chautauqua
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Black Heart Bart
VALUE: Race Nine Number 2 Abbey Marie
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 4, 9, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 13
$50 Investment= 69.44% of the dividend if successful
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