1/10/2016 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Epsom Handicap day

The best raceday Sydney has to offer comes around this Saturday at Randwick with ‘Super Saturday’, a nine race card with three Group l events, including the Epsom Handicap (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Race One (12:20) : Keeneland Gimcrack Stakes 1000m:

Back Me: I’ll be shocked if 5 Jorda (Bet Now: $2.00) doesn’t get the job done here. Wasn’t the cleanest to jump in her trial, but she showed good speed to sit near the tempo before picking her way through and going on to win with the ears pricked. She has a stack of upside and is in the right stable. Odds on seems about right.
Big Danger: 1 Chain of Fools (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Waterhouse/Bott trained filly who bolted up in her trial win, winning by over seven lengths under some riding, but the time was okay and she looked a little professional. She’ll jump, sit on speed and take some running down.
Roughie: 3 Grasslands (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Snitzel filly on debut for Michael Freedman. She ran third in a trial behind Greater Good, beaten just under three lengths but the effort looked tidy to the eye. Probably needs to improve a bit to win, but the stable did have a great record in Singapore with youngsters.

Race Two (12:55) : Newgate Breeders Plate 1000m:

Back Me: 2 Condor Heroes (Bet Now: $2.00) looks close to a good thing IMO. He was the clear pick of the triallers at the officials here, winning by nine lengths without really being extended, plus he ran fast time. All things being equal, I think he takes care of this bunch and comfortably. Looks the ultimate two year old.
Big Danger: 5 Khan (Bet Now: $6.00) also won a trial here at the officials and his turn of foot when he got clear was impressive, though I will say he was pushed a bit to the line. Stable have an outstanding record with their youngsters and they look to have another good one here. Definite threat.
Roughie: I was really surprised to see $17 all in on offer for 7 Misty Lad (Bet Now: $17.00). I thought he was the second best trialler at the officials. He was all over the shop, dipping and diving, legs all over the shop…still won, so for mine he potentially is the best horse out of this bunch. $17 is crazy.

Race Three (13:30) : APN Outdoor Craven Plate 2000m:

Back Me: 1 It’s Somewhat (Bet Now: $1.50) just picks himself here. He comes here off the back of a last start third in the Georgie Main where he sat on speed and fought on well behind the star that is Winx. He will love the rise to 2000m, maps well…hard to beat.
Big Danger: 2 Spiritjim (Bet Now: $2.50) also comes through the George Main where he was left out the back and really just stayed there in what was an inconclusive return. This race will tell us whether or not he is a pretender. My guess he is a pretender, but it’s a thin race.
Roughie: Who runs third? Both pretty ordinary horses at this level, but perhaps with upside, I’ll lean with 6 Pinstripe Lane, (Bet Now: $41.00) who comes through the Naturalism behind Jameka where he was plain. But he could improve with the small field…perhaps.

Race Four (14:05) : TAB Dulcify Quality 1600m:

Back Me: 3 Octavian Augustus (Bet Now: $3.20) resumed against the older horses at Warwick Farm a tick over two weeks back and closed off strongly late when second to the well performed Embley. He has a couple of nominations for some big races, and that fresh effort was very encouraging. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Nemrud (Bet Now: $4.20) was the worst sufferer of the carnage that occurred last Wednesday at Randwick behind Cross Stitch in what was just a very messy race, and Nemrud should have arguably won with a clear run. Has a nomination for a couple of high class races, and this isn’t a strong race. Hard to beat.
Roughie: 10 Hand It In (Bet Now: $34.00) could be one to include in exotics at huge odds. He ran in the four horse race over the mile at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks back and though beaten convincingly, he actually hit the line okay late and the form was franked in the Gloaming. 1600m at Randwick looks as though it will be no issue, and stable are pretty good when sending them to town. Highly doubt he can win, but a must for exotics.

Race Five (14:40) : The Star Roman Consul 1200m:

Back Me: Going with the Slipper winner 2 Capitalist (Bet Now: $2.80) to bounce back into the winners list. I wasn’t as critical as some of his first up effort in the San Domenico. The winner Star Turn ran 33 and change, and with Capitalist, he would have had to have run nearly sub 33 with 60kg to win. Impossible. Freshened up, and he really looked the part in a trial at Randwick recently. He meets these at level weights now. I think he can get the job done.
Big Danger: 1 Astern (Bet Now: $1.45) is the obvious horse to beat after his seemingly brilliant win in the Golden Rose. But what I will say is that he had clear running and was allowed to build up full momentum. Last time he clashed with Capitalist, he got spanked, and he is back to 1200m from 1400m, which is a query. You’re being asked to take poison odds IMO.
Roughie: I thought 5 Nikitas (Bet Now: $81.00) was a great value chance in the Golden Rose but he was a big flop after receiving a perfect sit in the race with cover. I think we’ve figured out now that he is a sprinter. He won’t win, but I can certainly see him running a place.

Race Six (15:20) : Sydney Airport Flight Stakes 1600m:

Back Me: Declaring 1 Yankee Rose (Bet Now: $1.75). You have to forgive her for the effort in the Golden Rose (1400m) given for some reason, they elected to lead on her, which is something she has never done in her life. Plus, she was nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be. Trialled last week at Warwick Farm and that was the best I’ve seen her trial, and she did it without blinkers. Put the blinkers on here, and back at Randwick…brings her best and she’ll make a mess of them.
Big Danger: I’ve been on 7 Awoke’s (Bet Now: $6.00) back in both runs this prep. She let me down badly first up in the Furious then on firmer ground in the Tea Rose, she was much better behind stablemate Foxplay. Heading towards the Oaks path I suspect, so the mile will play right into her hands, and I think if there is to be a knockout runner, it’ll be this girl.
Roughie: The race really falls away outside that pair. Perhaps 8 Bridle Lane (Bet Now: $67.00) could be an exotic player. She ran second over the Warwick Farm mile last time out, beaten a lip by Veladero, who won the Gloaming last week, so the form reads well, and she will run the mile out.

Race Seven (16:00) : TAB Epsom Handicap 1600m:

Back Me: See no reason to jump off 4 Happy Clapper (Bet Now: $11.00). The two tune up runs in readiness for this race have been fantastic to my eye, especially last start in the Bill Ritchie when warming to the task late. Last two runs at the Randwick mile have resulted in a win in the Villiers and a third to Winx in the Doncaster. This is his Grand Final and is so well weighted for me. The one to beat despite drawing gate one, which is a negative for this big strider.
Big Danger: 2 Hauraki (Bet Now: $6.00) was confidently ridden to win the Tramway and got the job done under McDonald before running a very game second to Winx in the George Main Stakes. That is the right form race given five winners of the Epsom in the last 15 years have come through the George Main. Hard to hold out for sure
Roughie: If there is a horse to include at odds, it could well be 5 Mighty Lucky (Bet Now: $51.00). He resumed in the Bill Ritchie and didn’t have the greatest of luck in the straight behind Sons of John, but he was warming up late in a real eye catching effort. He gets a lovely weight drop here and a fast Randwick mile just looks as though it will really suit him. I could certainly entertain him each way.

Race Eight (16:40) : McGrath Estate Agents Metropolitan 2400m:

Back Me: I think getting back to a handicap is really going to suit 4 Magic Hurricane (Bet Now: $9.00). I’ve been following him all the way this Spring and I thought on face value, his effort in the Hill Stakes was below par, but he just isn’t a WFA horse. He won his race last and amazingly, he drops 2kg from that success. He’ll love the return to handicaps, loves Randwick and for mine that hard 2000m run will do him the world of good.
Big Danger: 7 Sacred Master (Bet Now: $8.00) was confidently backed to win the Newcastle Cup last time out and aided by a gun ride from Bowman, the former kiwi got the job done to win impressively. Junoob ran okay last week so the form is alright, and from day one, this has been the horse’s Grand Final. This looks a lovely scenario for him to snare a major and it’s easy to see why he is near the top of the betting.
Roughie: 11 Dee I Cee (Bet Now: $14.00) ran second in the Newcastle Cup and I thought his effort was very good. He just got held up a touch nearer the inside when having something to offer and he is a horse where you can’t stop his momentum. I think if he is rolling here on speed, which is what should happen, he’ll run a mighty race at odds.

Race Nine (17:20) : Santos Coffee Premiere Stakes 1200m:

Back Me: Think there is value in shape of the Chris Waller trained 7 Good Project (Bet Now: $14.00), who is first up. He produced a mixed back in the Autumn, where he ran well on a couple of occasions but disappointed also on others. Trials leading in have been very good, he sprints well fresh and he draws to get a lovely sit off the tempo.
Big Danger: 11 Kaepernick (Bet Now: $7.50) also looked in need of the run when resuming in the Shorts but his run in defeat was outstanding, darting back to the fence and finishing the race off with real purpose late. He will only improve off that and has a very good second up record.
Roughie: Really interested to see how 14 Danish Twist (Bet Now: $14.00) resumes. She was one of the more consistent gallopers during the Autumn/Winter, which ended with a solid eighth in the Tatts Tiara (1400m). She has looked the part in a couple of barrier trials leading in, she can sprint well fresh and she has a fab record at Randwick.

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 13

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 11, 12

Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14

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