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Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday where it is Winter Stakes Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

Winter Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Winter Stakes

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Race 1. (11:35) Darley Hcp 1100m

Back Me

Bad luck is the only thing beating 2 North Pacific (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS). He could well develop into a Golden Rose contender and with that in mind, should be putting these away. Debuted in the Silver Slipper and was very good in defeat behind Farnan before being spelled with the Spring in mind. Trial was outstanding and just has to use gate one and not get too far back. Should win.

Danger

Wary of 1 Lady Banff (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) for Matty Dunn. Like most, wasn’t sure she would handle the heavy when resuming here back on June 13 but she was helped by a good speed and lovely ride from J Mac who got her going out wider in clear air early and class came to the fore on the line. Had a mini freshen up and loved her tick over trial. If this track is firmer, she’ll take a power of beating.

Long Shot

I’ve got good respect for the Team Snowden colt 3 Thudson (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS). Debuted in what looked a strong maiden at Ballarat back in March and gee he let down like a good horse when Yendall asked him to go, and the margin flattered his rivals given he switched off late. Two trials in Sydney have been solid enough. Want to see what the market does.

Race 2. (12:10) De Bortoli Wines (bm78) 2000m

Back Me

2 My Swashbuckler (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks the pony to bet on. Trialled up very well prior to an Australian debut flop on the Kenso track. The Ear Muffs went on three weeks ago at Randwick and he ran a much improved race, really catching the eye to finish third to Agassi, and should have finished a bit closer. Fitter, up in trip, very likeable.

Danger

6 Birth Of Venus (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) has got more upside than most here for Chris Waller. Was 1400m to 2000m when racing at Randwick three weeks back and thought she closed her race off pretty well from off the speed behind Mount Popa. That followed what I thought was a solid resumption behind Bound To Win so she’s going well.

Long Shot

5 Guise… (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is she back on track? This time last year, I was keen on her as a Queensland Oaks type and she hasn’t really gone on with it since, but last start over 1800m here was very encouraging when second to Fulmina, who had a 6kg weight swing on her in that event, so the effort had plenty of merit. Can she go on with it now?

Race 3. (12:45) Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1400m

Back Me

I’m going to take a chance with 7 Chairman’s Choice (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) and bank on him being right to go. Natalie Jarvis trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since May 29 at Goulburn over 1400m when charging home from the back to run a narrow second. The form out of the race looks a bit suspect, but he’s a good fresh horse and I can see him finishing over the top off a good speed.

Danger

I’m interested in 3 Magic Charlee (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS). Formerly with Kris Lees but has had a few runs now for Rod Northam and I reckon he has got this gelding going super. Ran on the home track at Scone last time out over 1400m and was a real eye catcher late when second to Shamuso So, a horse for Cody Morgan that has good wraps on it. He was 1100m to 1400m that day with a few weeks between runs so you’d like to think there is room for improvement. He and Chairman’s Choice are the two I’m backing here.

Long Shot

Can see why there has been early interest for 4 Texas Storm (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS). He’s been one of mine for a while and he did the job for me at good odds three back at Coffs. Next time out bumped into an in form Luga Lad, then came back in trip at Port Macquarie and worked home strongly. Back up in trip and Matty Bennett makes the trip to town for the ride, and he knows the horse very well.

Race 4. (13:20) Bowermans Comm. Furniture (bm74) 1500m

Back Me

1 Lewis (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented animal for Chris Waller that had trialled up just fair prior to his resumption over the mile at Warwick Farm and it was one of the wins of the day given he was wide throughout and doing all the work but despite that, he was strongest on the line. Tick over trial was good, lands near the speed here and is hard to beat.

Danger

I got a bit of time for 11 Zing (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). Chris Waller trained filly that put together a couple of sharp wins on the bounce before racing over 1800m here when wide no cover throughout and fought on bravely when fourth to Fulmina. Interesting she comes back to 1500m after that last start gut buster, but overall form is good.

Long Shot

6 Cafe Royal (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) looks a working progress for Noel Doyle and I think she can take this out. Impressive first up winner at Newcastle prior to racing over 1400m here two weeks ago where she showed she’s still new to the game but closed off well when third to Steel Diamond. Up to 1500m and hopefully on firmer ground, she can improve and go a couple better.

Race 5. (13:55) Ranvet (bm78) 1100m

Back Me

Provided there is no second up syndrome, confident that 2 Zaniah (Bet Now: $5.50) goes close to taking this out. Had over six months off when resuming over 1000m at Randwick three weeks ago and she was very good in defeat, a little unlucky too, when second to the flying Witherspoon. If she takes any improvement off that, think she runs a big race.

Danger

I’m interested in 5 Varda (Bet Now: $2.60) for James Cummings. Daughter of Lonhro that had a couple of trials prior to her resumption at Canterbury at the midweeks where admittedly she did have the A1 spot of being on speed, fence in run, but even allowing for that, she still bolted up and was impressive. Excellent form last prep which reads so well for a race like this.

Long Shot

Back to 1100m I do like for the John O’Shea trained 4 Lillemor (Bet Now: $7.50). Ran over 1200m at Randwick three weeks back and tried hard near the speed but 1200m at that track, at that level, just found her out late when grabbed by Stella Sea Sun, but fought on bravely for second. The 1100m Rosehill set up suits her pattern and she’ll go close.

Race 6. (14:35) Tab Long May We Play (bm78) 1500m

Back Me

5 Monegal (Bet Now: $6.50) is flying for Theresa Bateup. Outstanding first up win at big odds over 1300m before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where she proved it was no fluke with a strong second to the heavily backed Orcein. That last start run proved the resumption was no fluke and that she can be trusted at this level.

Danger

10 Orcein… (Bet Now: $7.50) well done if you found him when he won here a fortnight back. I couldn’t foresee the $12-$4.60 move for him given he was just fair seven days prior but Avdulla got him into a sweet spot just off the speed and once he got the inside split, he dashed and was too good. Can he repeat the dose? Watch the market.

Long Shot

Can’t back him to win because he has let me down badly in both runs back from a break, but on somewhat firmer footing, I’d be including 2 Night Of Power (Bet Now: $7.50) in the quaddie. Trialled like Phar Lap behind Classique Legend prior to the resumption and in that run, plus the next run, gee he’s been disappointing. Tongue Tie comes off, gate one, sits off a good speed…can win, he’s in the quaddie, but can’t back him to win.

Race 7. (15:15) Winter Stakes 1400m

Back Me

6 Sambro (Bet Now: $6.50) can be an enigma but I think he’s going well enough to take this out. Had the tick over trial prior to running in the Civic Stakes two weeks ago here where the race shape wasn’t A1 for his racing style but his run was still a pass mark I thought behind dominant winner Trumbull. Up to 1400m, hopefully off a more genuine tempo, he can bounce back.

Danger

4 Trumbull… (Bet Now: $3.60) bludger. Absolute bludger. Been on him his past few, dropped off in the Civic because I had enough of him missing the start and what happens? He pings the lid like a greyhound, lands the box seat and it was race over after 200m. If you knew he was going to do that again, bet up with confidence…I’m still just happy to watch.

Long Shot

11 Smartedge (Bet Now: $26.00) is a son of Smart Missile for the Snowden camp that is crying out for dry ground. Too wet first up behind True Detective before going to the Civic where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Trumbull. If this track was good, would almost be tempted to have him on top. Definitely one for multiples.

Race 8. (15:55) Iron Jack (bm88) 1200m

Back Me

Hoping sustained speed can come to the fore via 9 You Make Me Smile (Bet Now: $14.00). Was well supported when resuming over 1100m here two weeks ago, which was interesting given he paraded like he would take good improvement from the run, which is how it panned out when beaten a few lengths by Roheryn. Hope they’re aggressive from the gates, lead and give them something to chase.

Danger

If the speed is on, 11 Kordia (Bet Now: $2.60) should be the fast finisher. Didn’t beat a great deal when resuming over thus track/distance two weeks ago but it was the way in which he won. Sustained run off the speed and was strong to the line in winning. Looks potentially Stakes class, so keen to see how he goes against these.

Long Shot

7 Prime Candidate (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Denman for Bjorn Baker that resumed in the Roheryn race from a fortnight ago over 1100m here. Was on speed and looked to be going well but halfway down the straight, his condition gave out when fourth to the Godolphin sprinter. He’ll improve off that big time and is 2/2 when produced second up.

Race 9. (16:35) Rosehill Bowling Club (bm78) 1200m

Back Me

With the 3kg claim for Louise Day, think 1 Stella Sea Sun (Bet Now: $6.00) is very well in and is hard to beat in the get out. Ran over 1200m at Randwick three weeks ago when afforded a 12/10 steer by Jason Collett from the wide gate and she finished right over the top. Seems to be a horse that seems best with fresh legs, draws soft and remains at 78 level, plus drops 2.5kg in weight.

Danger

6 Monte Ditto (Bet Now: $4.50) is flying for David Pfieffer but can’t quite crack it for a win. Just spotted them too much start due to the hot tempo when racing over 1200m at Randwick three weeks back but closed off strongly and got very close to knocking off Poetic Charmer, who was given a lovely ride from Tommy Berry. Just finding one or two better at the moment, but he’s close.

Long Shot

7 Tony’s Reward (Bet Now: $31.00) gets the Blinkers back on and it might well be last chance territory for him. Gee he’s been disappointing this time in, both runs seeing him fail to fire a shot but in saying that, they have been on wet ground and his form does show he clearly likes it when the ground is dry, so the weather forecast will determine how strong his chances are.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race One Number 2 North Pacific

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 1 Stella Sea Sun

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 7 Chairman’s Choice

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 11

Leg Three: 3, 7, 9, 11

Leg Four: 1, 6

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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