11/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, SA Derby day

The Adelaide Racing carnival continues at Morphettville this Saturday where it is South Australian Derby Day. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out two metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; True for the remainder. Also note that the first two races will be run on the Parks track.

WATCH LIVE RACING AT

tab

7 You Hadme At Hello (Bet Now: $3.20) on top. Tony McEvoy has a stranglehold on this race and the fact that stable rider Barry Forster goes with this girl, that might well be the lead punters are looking for. She was okay on debut in the Dequetteville before going to Gawler on Anzac Day and she made an absolute mess of them, leading all the way, winning by seven and running decent time relative to the day. Off that, 1400m is no issue and is one of the hardest to beat.

3 Hinchpin (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of Hinchinbrook for the Tony McEvoy stable who was good on debut at Balaklava when beaten narrowly before taking on the older horses in a 1500m maiden at Gawler on Anzac Day and he made an absolute mess of them under Barry Forster. Always a good sign when a younger horse can beat the older gallopers, and despite coming back in trip, he’s a leading contender.

I reckon up to 1400m will suit the Jarrod McLean trained 5 Rolls (Bet Now: $35.00). Closed off well on debut at Terang behind boom horse Sartorial Splendour before going to Warrnambool where he had the suck run behind the speed but didn’t have the turn of foot late when midfield. Reckon up in trip is the go for this son of Anacheeva and wouldn’t need to improve much to figure.

4 Debt Collector (Bet Now: $2.90) is racing well for Stuart Padman but he’s just not getting the rub of the green. Wide barriers have been cruel to this horse in both runs back from a spell, the latest when wide no cover throughout but fighting on well to run third to Vinland. If the breaks go his way this time around, he’ll clearly take some beating and is a clear winning chance.

3 Vinland (Bet Now: $3.00) is flying for Tony McEvoy. Loved his resumption at Pakenham behind impressive winner Bea Tempted before going to this track/distance where a 12/10 steer from Raquel Clark got him the win, picking and probing for a run before eventually getting clear and finishing best. Has plenty of room for improvement and is a definite threat here.

Keen here to see the John Macmillan trained 1 Arkham Knight (Bet Now: $9.50). He had lost his way for a little bit this horse but his two runs back from a spell have been excellent, the latest seeing him run third at this track/distance in the City of Adelaide Handicap behind Hussybay. That was two weeks, but a few days later had a jumpout at Strathalbyn and looked very good there. Looks the horse at clear overs.

The publication of private jumpouts has been a great initiative for SA racing and they will be vital as form for this. I’m going with 1 Tequila Time (Bet Now: $4.40), a very good three year old for the Macdonald/Gluyas team who hasn’t raced since the National Stakes during the Carnival last year where he was at the end of a long prep and just felt the pinch late to run third. Very good recent jumpout here and suspect he’s ready to go.

5 Assertive Play (Bet Now: $3.20) is an interesting runner. This filly was formerly trained by Phillip Stokes but is now with David Jolly after a solid enough resumption down the Flemington straight on All Star Mile Day. Now with Jolly, she had a jumpout at Strathalbyn and looked pretty good without jumping up and down. At her best, she’s certainly capable of beating this field, but the market will tell you how forward she is.

I think the 1000m will suit the Team Jolly trained 3 Heavens Deal (Bet Now: $11.00), who just did far too much when racing on the course proper over 1050m last time and folded late behind the above average sprinter Gytrash. Back to 3YO grade and with a clean jump, expecting her to ping the lids and lead this field, giving them something to chase. That’s her best chance of winning.

I think up in trip will suit the Will Clarken trained 7 Split Lip (Bet Now: $4.20). She’s run over 1000m in both runs back from a break and on face value, she’s been below par, but I just think she’s found the trip too short. Did hold a nomination for the Sangster but dodged that in preference for this and the big tick for her is getting up to 1200m. Giving her one last chance.

1 Go The Journey (Bet Now: $4.00) is a veteran for the Jolly camp who attempted to lead all the way on the Parks track and despite copping pressure, he produced a really good kick and looked home but was nabbed on the peg by Artie De Two. Like him back to 1200m, he should lead this field and he does race best when dominating from the front. Hard to beat if that eventuates.

1200m is a query for 3 Ascendance (Bet Now: $8.50) but he has the right racing pattern and is just so honest. Ran over 1000m on the Parks track two weeks ago when on speed and fighting on well behind the talented three year old Gytrash. Just not sure about him running 1200m at this level against some nice types, but with a soft run, he could well be okay. One for multiples.

Few of these come through the 1900m race during the Oakbank Carnival, won by 3 Lostarc (Bet Now: $5.50), and I think he can continue his purple patch. He led all the way to win that race and was there to be beaten but he showed plenty of ticker in the straight to fend off his rivals. Think he’ll be better suited back here on the bigger track, a track he won at the start prior, so happy to be in his corner.

1 Naseeb (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to be ticking over really well this time in for the Sue Jaensch stable. Forget he went around two back on the Parks track behind Handsome Return before going to the Lostarc race at Oakbank where he came with a relatively well timed run under Tourneur and was there to beat the eventual winner, but Lostarc was too good. I think back to 1800m and back to Morphettville will help his cause.

2 Ocean Walzer (Bet Now: $7.50) is the complete unknown. Market said he was ready to go first up in the Lostarc race at Oakbank and on the turn, he looked to travel into the race as the winner but when asked for the big effort, he found nothing and was terrible. The market support was strong that day so have to give him another chance because his best is better than these.

I reckon the little bit of give in the track will suit 3 Muswellbrook (Bet Now: $7.00) perfectly. Third up here for the Hayes/Dabernig team after an excellent resumption in the Bendigo Guineas without a great deal of luck before pulling up lame at Flemington after being wide no cover. His best efforts have come when he’s raced on tracks with give in it, which he gets here, draws well and gets D Oliver steering.

The 1600m should be okay for the Tony McEvoy trained 2 Winning Partner (Bet Now: $5.00). Touch disappointing two back over the mile at Caulfield but bounced back to form last time out over 1400m at Oakbank when winning narrowly but impressively. I think the win was ugly but a contributing factor was the track, where you either handle it or you don’t, and I don’t think he did, but class got him home. Back up to the mile, he’ll be alright.

9 Splash Some Cash (Bet Now: $31.00) is a horse I wouldn’t dismiss. David Page trains this three year old, who is dodging the Derby and coming back in trip after contesting the Chairmans where he ran quite well in defeat but was well held when fifth to Declarationofheart. Like him back to the mile, and if the tempo is strong enough, with clear air, he’ll be dangerous late.

The potential standout among this lot is 2 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $4.00) and he does look the likely winner. Just has to tick the 2500m box. He’s been very effective at 2000m since day one, the latest win being at that trip in the VOBIS Heath where the race was handed to him on a platter given those in front walked, setting it up for his turn of foot to put them away, which he did. I think the trip will be okay for him and usually, with an unknown at the staying trip, you gravitate towards the best horse, which I think Mr Quickie is.

I just have no idea what to make of 8 Ridgewood Drive (Bet Now: $5.00) and his win at Flemington last Saturday. If he runs up to that, and the arrogance in which he put them away, he’ll beat these. Just depends if he can do it again in the space of a week. He made an absolute mess of them, even though he caused severe interference to a few runners. But off that, you’d think 2500m will be okay and he’s in the right stable.

6 Classic Weiwei (Bet Now: $18.00) is probably the pick of the locals. Put together a couple of impressive wins on the bounce before going to the Chairmans where he got too far back in the run but closed off well late to run third to Declarationofheart. He still looks a big dumbo, but no doubt the talent is there, and I think with a cold ride, he’ll get the trip no issue and is a knockout chance at odds.

3 Parsifal (Bet Now: $2.60) is a Will Clarken trained galloper who is in a real purple patch at the moment. He was smashed in betting during the Warrnambool Carnival and under a lovely steer from Jamie Kah, the bets were landed and he was most impressive, following on from a sharp win on the Parks track. Looks to be heading in the right direction and will be hard to hold out.

Want to give 13 Lady Soma (Bet Now: $18.00) another chance. Was really keen on her when she resumed at Oakbank on Easter Monday but I just don’t think she was 100% happy on the tight track and just never got involved behind Zarace. Think she’ll be much better suited on the course proper and sitting off a genuine tempo on the bigger track, at her best, she’s hard to beat here.

6 Alaskan Jade (Bet Now: $16.00) is a beauty for the Darren Magro who always runs honestly in these kind of races. Just think she got too far out of her ground last time out at Oakbank and that burn to get near the late just told when fifth to Street Life. Good record at Morphettville and with a stack of speed engaged here, I can see her getting back in the run and launching late.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Parsifal

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 7 You Hadme At Hello

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 3 Muswellbrook

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Two: 2, 3, 9, 15

Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 8, 16

Leg Four: 3

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review