11/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Redoute’s Choice Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield this Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.

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It’ll be really interesting to see how 1 Eastender (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) measures up. Had a fab Summer prep in Tassie, highlighted by the Hobart Cup/Launceston Cup double. Freshened up and resumed on the Devonport Synthetic where he lumped the 65kg and still managed to surge hard from the back and get the win. Much better suited up to 2400m and gets good weight relief.

4 Alfarris (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is a former UK galloper that has had two runs now in Australia for the Hayes/Dabernig team and has been quite good each time he has stepped out. First run came at Morphettville where he paraded big and ran accordingly behind Balf’s Choice before going to the Easter Cup at Caulfield where he was good in a messy race won by Plein Ciel. Out to an ideal trip now, upside…bit to like about him here.

2 Killarney Kid (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) should run his usual ripping race. His last two starts/wins have come over the hurdles and he has absolutely spanked them each time, firstly at Terang before racing at Oakbank where Pateman rode him out the back, riding him quite arrogantly, and for good reason. He ambled up around them and put pay to them on the turn for a dominant win. Looks hard to beat despite reverting to the flat.

13 Delvechio (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a Lloyd Kennewell trained three year old who was hard in the market when resuming at Sandown on Easter Monday where he was wide throughout but battled away really well in defeat behind the above average galloper No Enough Effort, finding the line well in defeat. Better suited at 1100m, should get three wide cover and launch late.

5 William Thomas (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) is a query. John Price trains this talented galloper, who was well backed early when resuming over 1000m here two weeks back but late market flucs said he’d need the run and that is how it panned out when back and getting a mile out of his ground but was good late. Now has the run under the belt, extra 100m, can sit closer in the run…hard to beat.

Surely they let 2 Written Choice (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) jump and run. That was when he was at his best during the Spring, which saw him clock the fastest time of the season for those 955m races at the Valley. Opted for cover first up at Flemington and battled away well in defeat behind Bandipur. Much better suited at this level and he’ll be hard to run down if he’s allowed to roll along in front.

1 Zoutori (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained three year old that is certainly heading in the right direction. He made them look second rate when resuming at Pakenham, beating a couple of subsequent city winners before going to Flemington on Anzac Day where he was ridden confidently by Williams and though challenged late, he was strong to the line and through it, so 1600m at this level looks ideal and clearly the one to beat.

11 Bill The Bee (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of So You Think for the Michael Moroney team who looks to be racing in pretty good form at the moment. Broke the maiden tag in impressive fashion two back at Benalla before going to Ballarat where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a good kick, but just felt the pinch late. He’ll be better for that run under the belt, and this isn’t an overly strong race.

I reckon up to the mile will suit the Tony McEvoy trained 2 Crockett (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS). Both runs back from a break have been on the Parks track at Morphettville. First up was an eye catching second to Won Ball off a moderate tempo before going to the Nitschke where he had no luck at all behind stablemate East Indiaman and should have finished much closer. Mile should be okay and has a touch of class/quality.

7 Riyadh (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) might be worth a throw at the stumps here each way. He’s had a couple of runs back from a spell for the Peter Healey team and been quite good each run, the latest at this track/distance when back and making good ground late behind Sir Pippin. Gets down to 52kg after the claim and with no designated leader, I’d like to see Poy take advantage of the gate because I don’t think he can give Guizot a start and beat him.

5 Guizot (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) had been bursting to win a race for some time for Aaron Purcell and that win came on the board during the Warrnambool Carnival over 1700m where he made an absolute mess of them under a lovely ride from Jordan Childs? Did he beat much? I’d say, but he does seem a confidence horse and the Caulfield mile does look right up his alley.

1 Kemono (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a Maher/Eustace trained Japanese galloper who is yet get a win on the board since arriving in Australia but his recent efforts have been encouraging. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Victoria Handicap when a bit unlucky but for the most part he had his chance when fourth to Streets Of Avalon. Think 1600m will be okay and he can win this at his best.

Hoping that Willow can use the early speed of 8 My Biddy (Bet Now: $3.50) to come over from the wide gate, lead and hopefully dominate proceedings. Was copping pressure when racing here three weeks ago and opted for cover, which probably cost her the win when second to Grey Shadow. Think she’ll lead this field up comfortably and out of trouble on speed, she’ll take some beating.

9 Josephine Sea (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to have returned in good order for the Ellerton/Zahra stable. Resumed with a dominant win at Seymour before placing at Sandown. Then went to Caulfield where she closed off quite well in defeat behind Grey Shadow. That form reads alright for this and if she can get a drag into the race, I think she’ll be dangerous against this lot.

Third up from a spell, expecting 6 Egyptian Bullet (Bet Now: $9.50) to run well. Didn’t mind her at a price when she raced here three weeks ago at this trip. Just not sure if she was entirely happy inside horses on the rail behind Grey Shadow. Didn’t exactly quicken but didn’t drop away. If she can get to the outside and let down, it’ll be interesting to see how she goes, because she’s good enough to win with her A Game.

Siding with the Team Snowden trained 12 Missile Mantra (Bet Now: $7.00). This filly was somewhat unwanted in betting when debuting at Ballarat but gee you had to love her finale, the way she put them away late to savaged the line and win. That form has been franked via Tragic winning earlier in the week and I think 1200m on the big track will suit this Smart Missile filly.

9 Moldova (Bet Now: $4.20) is on the seven day back up for the Danny O’Brien stable after winning down the Flemington straight last Saturday, making it 2/2 to start her career. Looked a bit lost down the straight when asked for an effort by Prebble but I think class and ability got her home. Think she’ll be better suited around a bend, has the right racing pattern and is a winner.

5 Express Pass (Bet Now: $20.00) is a son of Wandina on debut for Nick Ryan. Stable will be looking for a pick me up after the loss of Columbus Circle on the weekend, and this colt has looked handy, though hard to get a read on his past two trials given he’s been well held but has looked to travel nicely out the back. Have to respect any market moves with this astute stable.

4 Notation (Bet Now: $6.50) on top. The Hayes/Dabernig team trains this filly, who had a very good opening prep to start her career, winning two of five outings. I reckon 1200-1400m is when we’ll see the best of her, but didn’t look bad to my eye in a Flemington jumpout last week, she’ll land on speed, gets the claim for McDougall…think she’s one of a couple of relatively safe options.

1 Propelle (Bet Now: $2.60) does look the one to beat on current form. Sweet steer from Williams saw her bolt up here two weeks ago, sitting off a fast speed before being presented to the outside and finishing off strongly to win with a touch of class and authority. Goes up 6kg, which is a massive weight increase, so she’ll have to work harder for the win. She can win, but I won’t be on her back.

If 5 Voila (Bet Now: $9.00) had drawn a gate, I’d be all over her. I reckon Chris Waller has her flying but unfortunately she’s been plagued by bad barriers in both runs this time in, the latest run coming here three weeks back when a closing fourth to Graceful Storm. On paper, the barrier might not look great, but rail out, give in the track, perhaps drawing wide won’t be such a negative.

Think it’ll take a good effort to beat 8 Leonardo Da Hinchi (Bet Now: $2.90), a former Darren Weir galloper having his first run for the Mick Price stable. This bloke showed really good promise in the Spring, just failing to reach the top level in the 3YO ranks. Been given a good break, now with Price and his recent Caulfield jumpout when leading all the way was outstanding. Keen on him to resume a winner.

4 Firsthand (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented son of Star Witness for Team Hawkes that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since contesting the Razor Sharp at Randwick during the Summer where he was held up for a few strides but for the most part he had his chance when third to Fell Swoop, a Group l performer, which does read well for this. Recent trial back in Sydney was good and this horse does sprint well fresh.

2 I’m Wesley (Bet Now: $9.00) is a warhorse from Tassie who rarely runs a bad race at this level. He comes through the Irwin at Morphettville from four weeks ago where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a decent enough kick but was no match late for Hard Empire. I reckon he’s much more effective at 1200m and is a horse who does race best with fresh legs. Hard to beat if he finds the lead.

Is the class runner of the field, 1 Think Bleue (Bet Now: $6.50), being overlooked? Good winner here two back before going to the VOBIS Gold Mile where she just had to get dragged back from the wide gate and in a race suiting those on speed/rail, she couldn’t come on. Back to mares grade, gets in well again after the claim for Nugent and she did beat a couple of these in the win two back.

Fourth up from a spell, 13 Birth Of Venus (Bet Now: $4.00) should be ready to show her best. Former Irish mare who has been pretty good in Australia to date for Chris Waller, the latest effort being over 2000m here three weeks back when a closing third to Grinzinger Star. Back in trip does look a little query, but the big ticks are that she has a stack of upside and is back to mares grade.

8 Hussy’s Glow (Bet Now: $21.00) is a hard mare to follow and trust for Patrick Payne but her best is certainly good enough to beat these. Ran on Anzac Day against the mares where she was back in the run and closed off alright without really threatening behind Temple Of Bel. Hasn’t won in under a year, but overall, this is a pretty weak mares race and that was her first run in five weeks, so there should be room for improvement.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 1 Zoutori

NEXT BEST: Race Race Five Number 8 My Biddy

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 Riyadh

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 6, 9, 12

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 9

Leg Three: 8

Leg Four: 1, 2, 8, 9, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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