11/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot

Eight races will be run and won at Ascot Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

Looks rather straight forward here with the Paul Jordan trained 1 Specialism (Bet Now: $1.70). Looked as if it would be a bit of a nightmare when racing here last Saturday over 1000m but she eventually got the split and dived through late to get the win in the last stride. Think she’ll be better suited this time around with the run under the belt and the step up to 1200m. Hard to beat.

5 Mia Dolce (Bet Now: $3.50) has put it together at her past couple of runs for the George Davies team. Strong winner over 1200m at Pinjarra two back before racing at this track/distance where she was put on speed under Brodie Kirby and from there, it was a pretty painless watch if you were on. Good test here against some nice types, but she’s hard fit/in form and deserves another crack.

8 Pambella (Bet Now: $19.00) is a daughter of Playing God for Neville Parnham who had trialled up well prior to debuting over 1200m at Pinjarra where she was outside Mia Dolce all the way and battled away okay but well and truly had her chance. Off that, can’t see her turning the tables, but perhaps now she has the run under the belt she can improve naturally from that effort.

Giving 3 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $15.00) another chance. Thought his first up run, without much luck, behind Dutch Spy, was quite good. Then raced over 1500m here three weeks ago where he was back in an on pace dominated affair and just couldn’t really quicken on the soft track. Much better suited on firmer footing, and third up, he should just about be ready fitness wise.

2 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $3.70) is racing in a real purple patch at the moment for the Adam Durrant team, winning his past two, the latest coming in the Diggers Cup over 1800m here on Anzac Day when back on the rails before angling into clear air and surging hard late to win. Back in trip and a likely slow tempo the query, but hard to knock the way he’s going at the moment.

The little bit of weight relief should help the Colin Webster trained 1 Properantes (Bet Now: $5.00). He loomed to win the Diggers Cup last time out and was there to put them away but he couldn’t quite dash with the 60.5kg when beaten under a length by Touch Of Silver. Gets the claim for Azzopardi and I think back to the mile will suit him big time. Definite winning chance.

3 Velago (Bet Now: $2.45) looks to be racing in super form at the moment. Lucy Warwick gave the four year old a 12/10 steer last time out over the 1500m here three weeks back, sitting back off the speed before being allowed to stride forward mid race and take the lead, and from there, it was a rather painless watch. Back in trip no issue, in form and strikes a very winnable race.

4 Sigil (Bet Now: $4.40) is the Tom Melbourne of WA racing. Nearly three years since has won a race but for the most part has been racing quite okay without getting that elusive win. Last start saw him hit the front and for a moment he looked the winner but was bloused late by Inflation. That was his first run at 1400m for the prep so he should be much better off this time around.

1 Salamaat (Bet Now: $6.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over 1200m here last Saturday when wide no cover for the trip and despite not really being a winning threat, he stuck to the task pretty well in defeat when fourth to the very progressive sprinter Free Trade. Looks like he wants 1400m, which he gets here and third up, he should just about be ready fitness wise.

Happy to side with the in form 3 Inflation (Bet Now: $2.60). He’s won his past two, the latest coming at this track/distance two weeks ago when given a sweet steer by Parnham and just proving too good for his rivals. I reckon a hard 1400m sees him right out, but don’t think the seven furlongs here will be run at a strong tempo, so if that’s the case, he’s the one to beat.

1 Classic Pro (Bet Now: $3.70) is a three year old filly who drops miles in grade/depth after contesting the Sheila Gwynne here on Good Friday where she looked completely outclassed but despite that, gee I thought she ran well in defeat when second to the classy mare Celebrity Dream. Her efforts prior to that were outstanding so back to her own age group, she does appeal.

5 Sophie’s Song (Bet Now: $6.50) is on the seven day back up for the Simon Miller stable after racing over the 1200m here last Saturday where not much went right for him in a total forgive job behind Free Trade. Should have finished closer but don’t think she beats the winner home. Like her up in trip and back to her own age. Draws to get a sweet run, so is a leading contender.

1 Deacalda (Bet Now: $1.75) looks the clear horse to beat. Simon Miller trains this filly, who was crunched in betting when racing at this track/distance on Anzac Day and the bets were landed. She sat off the fast speed before Parnham eased her to clear air on the turn and gee she let down impressively to get the job done. Not that much harder here, and gets in well after the claim.

8 Pastry (Bet Now: $12.00) is an interesting runner. Peter Fernie trains this filly, who resumed over 1100m at Kalgoorlie where she led all the way under a confident steer from Autier and the filly ran really good time in winning. Think she’ll land somewhere near the front this time around and at 1000m, I reckon her best chance of winning will be if she leads and rolls along.

3 Son Of Bacchus (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Playing God gelding resuming for the Rhys Radford stable. This bloke hasn’t raced since December 5 at Bunbury over 1700m when attempting to lead all the way and the three year old gave a good kick against the older horses, but just felt the pinch late when second to Royal Strata. Been given a good break and has trialled up well leading in.

I think the market will be the guide to how forward 7 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $3.80) is. I think if he’s indeed forward enough, he’s the one to beat. Very talented three year old who resumes after a brilliant Summer Carnival, highlighted by his last start win in the Lee Steere Classic. Been given a good break and looked very sharp in a recent Lark Hill trial win. Class will carry him a long way.

1 Special Reward (Bet Now: $1.95) is going about it the right way for Simon Miller and is getting better with each run. He gave them a galloping lesson here two weeks ago, leading all the way and spanking them in sharp time and did it without really being fully extended by Parnham. Gets in okay after the claim for Azzopardi. Just depends how much work he has to do from the draw.

9 Don’t Fuss (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Scandal Keeper for the Pearce stable who was confidently supported when racing on Anzac Day and under a lovely steer from Dan Staeck, he came with a well timed run and was much too good for his rivals. Far more depth this time around, but has hard race fitness under the belt and should get a sweet trip just off a likely good speed.

2 My Demi (Bet Now: $4.00) was given a lovely steer from Joe Azzopardi to win over 1000m here two back before being given three weeks off and racing at the same track/distance where she just got too far back in the run but loved the way she closed off behind Valour Road, who won the Group ll Euclase last Saturday at Morphettville, so that form reads great. Just needs to take advantage of the inside gate.

I reckon back to 1100m will suit the Simon Miller trained 7 Soy Tan Rapido (Bet Now: $3.40). Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago where she got the lead rather comfortably and for mine had her chance to win but was beaten fair and square in the straight by Fair Nakita. I reckon 1200m sees her right out so back to 1100m, hoping they use her early speed to lead and dominate proceedings.

8 Glasgow Girl (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Rogano mare for Lindsey Smith who was somewhat of a drifter in betting when resuming at Narrogin but despite that, class got her home and she was far too good for them. Didn’t beat much, but good to get the first up kill and confidence under the belt. Tricky draw, but has shown promise from previous preps so giving her respect.

Happy to butter up on 5 Sonnen (Bet Now: $9.50). Stephen Miller trains this bloke, who did a few favours for me last Wednesday over this track/distance, getting a sweet ride from Louis just off the speed and once presented clear air at the top of the straight, he was much too good for his rivals. Steps up to Saturday grade, but this isn’t the strongest Saturday metro staying race going around.

The class of the field is clearly 1 Arctic Stream (Bet Now: $3.30), and off that alone, he just about wins. The query, obviously, has to be the 2150m. Thought Pike give him every chance over 1800m on Anzac Day and he was there to win but he didn’t finish it off and you’d have to mark him down as disappointing when third to Touch Of Silver. Back in depth, up in trip…he can win, but without me on.

11 Diplomat Express (Bet Now: $31.00) looks to have returned in really good order for the Dennis Barker stable. Pike gave him an absolute peach of a ride at this track/distance two weeks ago, settling just off the speed before getting an inside split and finishing best to score. Was only fifth up there, so you’d like to think there is more to come and he can win again for sure.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Deacalda

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Specialism

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Sonnen

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 7

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8

Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 11

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