A nine race card has been assembled for Randwick this Saturday where it is January Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eleven metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out eight metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (12:55) Bushfire Appeal 25/1 (bm74) 1000m
4 Omar (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Snitzel for Gerald Ryan that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since Anzac Day over this track/distance when not pulling up 100% post race behind Goldfinch. Been given a good break and liked the way he went about his business when winning a trial at Rosehill recently, so keen to see how he goes.
Back to 1000m looks ideal for 3 Splintex (Bet Now: $2.10 TOP ODDS), who has contested two strong races this prep and has been far from disgraced each time, the latest coming in the Gosford Guineas when on speed and feeling the pinch late when third to Hightail. Due to the fact he beat Exceedance as a 2YO, his SP is always going to be unders, so personally, couldn’t back him, but concede he’s a threat.
The two bolters are no chance, so hard to make a case for a Long Shot. Next best would be 5 Aquitaine (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS), who is flying this time in for the James Cummings and overcame difficulties to win here two weeks ago, beating the older mares in a pretty impressive effort. Back to 1000m is the knock, but she’ll be strong at the end if they go silly in front.
Race 2. (13:30) Tab Highway Hcp (c3) 1200m
12 Alternative Facts (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS), with normal luck, should take a power of beating, and is potentially on the radar for the Country Championships Heat at Coffs Harbour next month if she runs up to expectations here. Ran in the Highway here two weeks ago and if you were on, it was just an awful watch, thanks to an awful ride. Did everything possible to get into trouble and no doubt she wins with a clear path in the straight. Eats up 1200m and off the last run, has to be the one to beat.
Alternative Facts was unlucky in that Highway mentioned above, but 9 Magnarock (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) was also stiff and you could make a case that he should have won. Just badly held up when probing for clear air and by the time he got out, Fritz’s Factor had all the momentum and was too good. He looks well over the odds for mine.
1 Show Me The Honey (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) has the metro benchmark form and that is always a big tick when it comes to Highway races. Admittedly hasn’t done a great deal in two runs back from a break, but they have been in tidy races, including last time out here with that form being franked by Chat on Wednesday. Gets the claim and soft gate, could improve big time back in depth/grade.
Race 3. (14:05) Bisley Workwear (bm94) 1200m
Blacktype class horses aside, you’d be struggling to find a galloper that can reel off a finale better than 7 Taniko (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS). Her last 6-12 months has been outstanding, the way she finishes her race off, and that finale got her the win over this track/distance three weeks ago when sprouting wings from last. Hard fit now, good speed in front, looks a good race for her.
2 Cradle Mountain (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Talented animal for Clare Cunningham that resumes, having not raced since the Spring Preview on the Kenso track back in August behind Girl Tuesday. Has had two solid trials under the belt to prepare him for his return to the track and he does race well early on in a prep.
5 Albumin (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is racing really well at the moment for Gerald Ryan and is a definite winning chance here. He comes through the Christmas Classic where he landed near the speed, getting a good run in transit, and tried hard, but was no match for the finale produced by Madam Rouge, who was impressive. Can sit off the pace here and be strong late.
Race 4. (14:40) January Cup 2000m
Been a while since 6 Aqua D’Ivina (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) has raced beyond 1600m, but I think she’s looking for it now. Far from disgraced in the Villiers before contesting the Belle Of The Turf at Gosford where they went silly in front, setting it up for those from the back, including this mare, and she worked to the line pretty well. Has the upside/brilliance compared to most of these. Hard to beat.
Can 1 Luvaluva (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS) repeat what she did in the Summer Cup on Boxing Day? If she does, she just wins. But that is the gamble you’re going to have to take. In saying that, gee it was impressive the way she put them away under Koby Jennings and seemingly had plenty in the tank. If she produces anything similar to that here, she’ll look the winner for a fair portion of the race.
He’s hit and miss is 2 Alward (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS), but I just think he gets the perfect run in transit. Down the track behind Luvaluva in the Summer Cup but pulled up with excuses post race in a forgive run I feel. Start prior didn’t see out the 2400m. 2000m is his go, a soft 2000m, and from the gate, he lands box seat and run of the race.
Race 5. (15:15) Ranvet Hcp 1500m
8 Savvy Ken (Bet Now: $11.00) on top for me. Clare Cunningham trains this gelding, who had been trialling up very well leading into his resumption at Canterbury and on paper, it was just a run, but I think just forget he went around. Pulled his head off behind the speed which meant he had nothing left for the straight. Was trialling too good to dismiss off one run.
4 Napoleon Solo (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Team Snowden trained four year old that bounced back to winning form two back before racing over 1400m here three weeks ago and battled away pretty well in a race that didn’t really suit, won by Edison. Not sure how strong that form is, but up to 1500m I like and finds a really winnable race.
6 Tunero (Bet Now: $8.00) is teasing to win. Don’t think it’s here, but he’s a must include in multiples. He ran over 1800m here a fortnight ago and worked to the line really well I thought behind an in form Berdibek. Think up in trip rather back would be the go for this horse, but he’s in form without winning and will be strong at the end.
Race 6. (15:55) Tab Venue Mode (bm70) 1600m
6 Academy (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a good gamble here for the Mark Newnham team. Not much went his way first up on Boxing Day over 1300m here, jumping poorly and spotting them a big start, but did make up ground late behind Julian Rock and was more than sound in defeat. He’ll eat up 1600m, stack of upside, and this is a very winnable race.
I think connections involved with 7 Showminder (Bet Now: $11.00) were a bit dejected post race after his effort at this track/distance on Boxing Day. Double figures was bet about him and they backed him into $6. 200m out he got the split, dashed through and looked the winner, but couldn’t quite finish it off and The Promise nabbed him. That hard 1600m outing should hold him in good stead for this.
11 War Baron (Bet Now: $18.00) may want further, but he’s in the right stable to be competitive in this kind of race. Comes through The Promise race on Boxing Day here and his finale was very good, clocking the best late splits of the race despite being first up off one 900m trial. He’ll take really good improvement off that and can settle closer in the run if need be.
Race 7. (16:35) Schweppes (bm78) 1500m
10 Pinup Miss (Bet Now: $9.00) is flying for John Ramsey. Impressive winner at Newcastle three back before not being suited the slow tempo at Rosehill. Stepped up to the mile at Randwick three weeks back and really liked the way she found the line when a narrow second to Spencer. She’s flying and looks to find a nice race. Just wish it was further.
I think 1 Asharani (Bet Now: $5.50) is back on track for Kris Lees. Lovely ride from J Mac saw the mare win here three weeks ago, wearing down Word For Word, who was a beaten odds on pop last Saturday, so the strength of that form a tad suspect leading into this, but she’s looking for further, which she gets here, and is well in after the claim for Sam Clenton.
6 Elusive Nature (Bet Now: $26.00) looks suited back to a more gently run 1500m compared to the brutal mile she was in last start in the Belle Of The Turf at Gosford where she was back near last and was pretty much run off her legs it seemed behind Tinkermosa. Depth here nowhere near as strong and like her back in trip in the smaller field.
Race 8. (17:20) Heineken 3 (bm88) 1400m
5 Phaistos (Bet Now: $3.10) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets a really good chance here. Just lacked the turn of foot to put them away when racing over the mile here two weeks ago but battled away really well in defeat when dead heating for third behind Something Fast, who is low flying at the moment. He’s hard fit now Phaistos, so he gets his chance.
13 Charretera (Bet Now: $2.80) is racing really well for the Snowden camp but she just can’t quite crack it for a win. Given a sweet steer by King over 1400m here a fortnight back and looked the winner at the top of the straight but couldn’t finish it off. In saying that, the two that beat her, Leviathan and Bandersnatch, are above average. Little query at the trip but is suited at this level.
2 Toryjoy (Bet Now: $5.00) has to be given another chance. Some were critical of the ride from Kathy in the Belle Of The Turf but have to keep in mind this mare is a one trick pony. Has to lead to be any sort of winning chance and that didn’t eventuate at Gosford, so just pen that run. Tick over trial was pretty good and if she finds the front without spending too many petrol tickets, she’ll take some beating.
Race 9. (18:00) Sky Racing Active (bm78) 1800m
7 Mr Dependable (Bet Now: $1.65) looks a really promising galloper for the WaterBott stable and the way he’s racing, he will love the step up to 1800m. Ran over the mile here two weeks ago when on speed under Nash before being clicked up in the straight and was strong to the line in winning. Got more to come and should take a power of beating.
There is a bit of a tail to this race I feel outside that pair. Next best for me is 2 Matowi (Bet Now: $13.00), who is flying this prep, albeit in easier company than this. Impressive winner over the mile here two back before racing at the same track/distance and running a game third to Something Fast where the race really wasn’t run to suit. Crying out for 1800m and should get a cheap run from the gate.
5 Shalmaneser (Bet Now: $81.00) is one to perhaps include in multiples at big odds. Two runs back from a break have been over unsuitable trips, so don’t really pay too much attention to them. Getting out to an ideal distance now and comes here off the back of what I thought was a solid trial at Warwick Farm over 1200m. Keen to see how he goes up in trip.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 6 Aqua D’Ivina
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 12 Alternative Facts
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 10 Pinup Miss
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 6, 7, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 13
Leg Four: 7
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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