Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:45) : Eugene Gorman Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 10 Sia (Bet Now: $6.00) is a well bred filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team who was hard in the market on debut on the Geelong Synthetic where she didn’t appear to handle the track that well but her natural brilliance got her home. Stable don’t mind running their good ones on that track before bringing them to town, so expect her to measure up.
Big Danger: 2 Lone Eagle (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Zoffany colt for Coolmore and Mick Price who debuted two weeks back at Sandown where he sat off a slow tempo and couldn’t quicken well enough to match it with the winner but he stuck on really well. 1200m back to 1100m is the issue, but no doubt he will be strong late.
Long Shot: 8 Olifants (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Godolphin youngster who was close up on debut at Kembla Grange before being sent to the Geelong Synthetic where he looked to struggle on the track and didn’t find much after sitting on speed. Trained on the track, so I’m sure he would have had a look down the straight, which is an advantage.
Race Two (12:15) : Trevor Clarke Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Pedrena (Bet Now: $4.40) looks the clear horse to beat here. Smart filly for the Mick Price yard who was a top winner over 1400m at Caulfield two back before stepping up to the mile at Sandown where nothing really went right for her tempo wise when second to Soho Ruby. Back to 1400m is perfect and she’s hard fit. Keen.
Big Danger: 8 Swampland (Bet Now: $7.00) is a filly who is racing very well at the well for Henry Dwyer and another win is definitely looming. She ran over 1300m at Cranbourne last time out and worked home strongly to just miss out on the win, settling for second. Up to the Flemington 1400m is ideal and rates highly.
Long Shot: 6 Facts (Bet Now: $23.00) rises in grade but I thought there was a bit to like about her first up win at Seymour. Did a bit of work near the speed and was there to be beaten but Aitken lifted the filly over the line late to win. In the Autumn she was considered good enough to tackle the Kevin Hayes at start two, so she has obviously shown the stable something.
Race Three (12:50) : Bruce Gadsden Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Military Reign (Bet Now: $3.10) is an absolute speed demon from Perth who comes here as a great winning hope in a relatively thin race. Sat on speed in the Roma Cup last time out and kicked hard but was no match for the Group l performed Rock Magic. Back to 1000m is perfect, he should lead and take some beating.
Big Danger: 5 O’Malley (Bet Now: $6.50) can be a hit and miss galloper at times but we know he is right up to these. Hasn’t raced for a month since racing at this track/distance where he got a mile back in the run but worked home well late behind Crystal Dreamer. If he is close enough 300m out, he’s good enough.
Long Shot: 6 Rough Justice (Bet Now: $9.50) is a quality sprinter that is first up for the Ellerton/Zahra yard. Hasn’t won for a long time but he strikes a very winnable race, he goes well fresh and his recent jump outs have been quite encouraging, plus he does have a tidy record when racing down the straight.
Race Four (13:23) : Young Member’s Ball Handicap 2500m:
Back Me: 4 Shoreham (Bet Now: $11.00) is a horse who has come back in super order now that he is back home with Saab Hassan. Ran over 1800m here first up and was very good late behind Northern Journey before racing over the 2040m at the Valley last Saturday where he was good late between runners behind Gallic Chieftain. Flemington 2500m looks perfect and he has upside.
Big Danger: 5 Goathland (Bet Now: $1.85) looked a good thing when racing over 2400m at Sandown a fortnight back but on face value, you would have to say he was disappointing behind Grand Dreamer despite running a close up third. Given the run he had, he was expected to put them away when eventually into the clear but he just whacked. Expecting a big third up bounce back.
Long Shot: 11 Wells (Bet Now: $26.00) is a star jumper who is very capable on the flat so he goes in the numbers here. Ran second in the Andrew Ramsden last year and looks a much better horse 12 months. He ran behind De Little Engine over 2800m at Flemington last time out and stuck on well for a horse looking for steeples, and that form has been franked. Looking for the jumps, but he does look likely here.
Race Five (14:02) : Ken Cox Handicap (90) 1800m:
Back Me: 6 Amarela (Bet Now: $8.00)is a perennial blackbooker, but the patience is wearing thin. Gets one more chance here. Ran over the mile at Flemington three weeks back where she again got back and again she ran on to run sixth to Zourkhan, beaten a touch over three lengths. She is bursting to win a race, and she gets her chance here.
Big Danger: 2 Master Zephyr (Bet Now: $11.00) is a quality gelding who has had two runs back for the Weir camp. Resumed at Morphettville and was good late behind Royal Rumble before racing over 2000m here where he got a mile back and just never came on at all behind Extra Zero in a real flop. Be very wary of the third up bounce back.
Long Shot: 4 Ormito (Bet Now: $11.00) could be the improver here at odds. Former UK galloper who has had a couple of runs down under for the Weir camp and has been pretty good each time, starting off at Caulfield behind Sadaqa before going to the Bool when far from disgraced behind Tick Tick Bloom. If he is going to be doing anything positive in Australia, he has to run well here.
Race Six (14:42) : Henry Bolte Handicap (78) 2000m:
Back Me: 2 Kiwia (Bet Now: $4.40) is a progressive three year old gelding for Darren Weir who looks ready for the 2000m now. He ran against the older horses over the Cranbourne mile last time out where he got a mile back in the run but he finished off his race quite nicely in the piece behind the well performed mare Khutulun. That looks really good form for this.
Big Danger: 4 Guangzhou (Bet Now: $6.00) is a gelding for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who is putting together a nice little record. He ran three weeks back over the Flemington mile where he was given a lovely steer by Micky Dee and the horse found plenty when challenged to score a narrow but impressive win. He has had the two mile runs under the belt, so he should run well here.
Long Shot: 3 Docker Pav (Bet Now: $12.00) is an Adelaide visitor who looks a serious contender here. Was five weeks between runs when racing in the Port Adelaide Cup where he was clearly outclassed but I thought he ran very well against some quality types when fourth to Time To Test, beaten five lengths. 2500m back to 2000m is the issue, but on that effort, he’s in the game for sure.
Race Seven (15:22) : Rod Johnson Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: Looks to be good speed here, which should suit the Team Corstens trained 8 Zebrinz (Bet Now: $10.00). Bit of a non winner, but his efforts recently, without winning, have been really good. Ran over the Caulfield mile four weeks back and chased hard but had to settle for a close up second to Onpicalo. Back to the Flemington 1400m is perfect and I can see him blending him in at the right time.
Big Danger: 6 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $4.00) hadn’t won for a little while but his jump outs were quite encouraging before resuming at this track/distance where he was given a lovely ride by Stackhouse and the horse reacted by showing a lovely turn of foot over the final 200m. I think he can measure up here despite not being entirely trustworthy.
Long Shot: 10 Airalign (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented galloper for the Tom Cowan stable at Cranbourne who is absolutely lethal when produced second up. He resumed four weeks back over 1100m at Caulfield where he sat midfield in the run and stuck on okay behind Shaf. Five from six second up, weight drop…he has to be included.
Race Eight (16:02) : L.V Lachal Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $9.50) looks a good each-way play for mine here. Had to lump a big weight when resuming at Bendigo where he got a mile back in the run and just ran out of condition late in the piece when fifth to Epic Moment. He has run some cracking races down the Flemington straight previously and has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 9 Sacred Sham (Bet Now: $6.00) is a progressive colt for the O’Brien camp who returns back home after racing at Morphettville three weeks back. Sat off the pace and was wide from the sticky draw but still loomed to win the race. The early effort just told and he was gassed the final 100m when third to Mulder. Finds a very winnable race here and form prior reads well.
Long Shot: 2 Removal (Bet Now: $20.00) hasn’t raced for over a month since racing during the Warrnambool Carnival where he didn’t look entirely happy on the heavy track but he toughed it out very strongly when asked for the big effort to score a narrow but impressive win. The break between runs should have done him the world of good and rates highly.
Race Nine (16:38) : Comic Court Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Rewarding Effort (Bet Now: $12.00) is a very good galloper for the Cindy Alderson yard who resumed down the straight here over 1000m two weeks back and closed off quite well late in the piece behind the in form Crystal Dreamer. 1400m second up and back on a bending track will suit this horse and he does have a very good second up record.
Big Danger: 6 Nikitas (Bet Now: $6.50) was forever going to known as a cat but he has turned his form around big time since joining the Weir camp. Sprouted wings to win first up during the Warrnambool Carnival before getting back and wide at Sandown and running his race in patches but was good late. Flemington 1400m looks ideal and is a key threat.
Long Shot: 13 Sir Sagamore (Bet Now: $18.00) is a quality four year old for the Ellerton/Zahra camp that resumed over 1100m at Sale where he was confidently backed but he just got a tad too far back in the run and was back to his old tricks of not quite racing genuinely enough. If he brings his best here, he’s in the game for sure.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Kiwia
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Military Reign
VALUE: Race Four Number 4 Shoreham
Have A Tip? – Post Your Tip in the Comment Section Below
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11
Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 11, 13
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