The biggest raceday on the Queensland racing calendar is Stradbroke Day and it comes around this Saturday on a brilliant card of racing, with the Queensland Derby and JJ Atkins providing super support acts. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out half a metre for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:20) : James Boags Premium Daybreak Lover 1200m:
Back Me: Leaning towards 2 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $3.50) here in a tricky race. James Cummings trained three year old who loves racing on the fresh side and has been given a three week break since contesting the 3YO race here three weeks back at this track/distance where he had a lovely run near the speed and chased hard to nab All Over Bosanova right on the peg. Firmer footing looks perfect and he strikes a winnable assignment.
Big Danger: 14 All Over Bosanova (Bet Now: $3.60) did indeed look all over a winner last time out at this track/distance in a similar race where she led and kicked strongly to look the winner but was grabbed in the last couple of strides by Tactical Advantage. She will be better with cover and a sit, so if that happens, she can turn the tables for sure.
Long Shot: 6 Mount Panorama (Bet Now: $26.00) was regarded as the best maiden in Australia prior to last time out at the Gold Coast he got back to near last in the run but as soon as Dittman gave him a click, it was all over. That would have done his confidence the world of good and is a live threat here for sure at odds.
Race Two (11:55) : Makers Mark Hinkler Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Nancy, (Bet Now: $4.40) if she shows natural improvement from the Silk Stocking, should go very close here. Should have absolutely bolted in at the Gold Coast but Bowman just couldn’t quite get clear at the right time when appearing to have plenty to offer. Give her clear air and an okay track rating, I’m very keen on her to go close.
Big Danger: 12 Irish Constabulary (Bet Now: $12.00) is on the seven day back up after racing in the Lightning last Saturday where he was short of his best distance but he was a real eye catcher late in the piece. He showed during the Summer what quality he has. Up to 1200m is perfect and the seven day turnaround is ideal.
Long Shot: 15 Mogador (Bet Now: $16.00) is the big improver here. Resumed three weeks back at Rosehill where he got back in the run and was never really clear to get decent running but he was okay late in the piece behind Bonny O’Reilly. Prepared to forgive him for that, and we know he is a quality animal on his best form.
Race Three (12:30) : Radiotab The Wayne Wilson 1600m:
Back Me: Have to give 1 Religify (Bet Now: $3.30) another look here. Outstanding first up win in the Prime Ministers Cup at the Gold Coast before going to the Lord Mayors Cup a fortnight back at Eagle Farm and he just isn’t a wet tracker, running accordingly. Back on top of the ground now, maps well…gee he will take some beating.
Big Danger: Knockout chance here at odds is 10 Mystic Opal (Bet Now: $9.50). Looked a bit outclassed I thought in the Glenlogan Park but she proved me wrong because I thought she was fantastic given she got a mile back in the run and was inside horses, which probably wasn’t her go, but she was good late. Better when she is outside horses and given room. Definite threat if that eventuates.
Long Shot: 11 I’ll Fly Away (Bet Now: $21.00) is a quality mare for Darren Weir who could surprise a few here. Just missed out on the win first up during the Warnambool Carnival before going to Bendigo where the market said she had three legs and ran accordingly. She’s a quality mare when right, so big watch on her.
Race Four (13:05) : Bundaberg Rum Dane Ripper Stakes 1350m:
Back Me: Giving 7 Raiment (Bet Now: $3.80) another look here. I was all over her first up in the Glenlogan Park a fortnight back but she let me down badly behind Eckstein but I think she was one of many who just really struggled on the surface. Her form prior and the trial leading in was outstanding. Back on top of the ground here, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 8 Sold For Song (Bet Now: $15.00) looks a great chance in the Tatts Tiara and I think she can go close here also. Hasn’t won for nearly 12 months but she is knocking on the door after a couple of really good runs this time in. Charged home in the Glenlogan Park and was an eye catcher late despite doing a bit wrong. If she can put it all together, she can win this for sure.
Long Shot: 3 Madotti (Bet Now: $51.00) is the knockout hope here at odds. Didn’t mind her effort first up in the Silk Stocking behind With A Promise before going to Randwick where she struck a soft track and that was the end of chances behind Kudero. Back on top of the ground now, getting fitter, good record at Doomben and we know she is up to this level on her best form.
Race Five (13:40) : Ascot Green Queensland Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: 12 River Racer (Bet Now: $8.00) has been bursting to win a race for some time, and I think she gets her chance here. Her effort in the Fred Best a fortnight back was just unbelievable given how far back she was and the long run she had to make to get as close as she did to Niccanova. Really good record at Doomben and is crying out for the mile, which she gets here.
Big Danger: 4 Niccanova (Bet Now: $3.70) is a quality gelding for the Steve Tregea yard who produced an outstanding turn of foot to get the job done fresh at the Gold Coast, beating home Zamex, who won at Rosehill last week. Niccanova then stepped up in grade in the Fred Best and aided by a brilliant steer from Jimmy Orman, the horse dashed through late and was powerful to the line and through it. End of last prep, he bolted up at this track/distance, so he has the form on the board and is only third up here.
Long Shot: 9 Volpino (Bet Now: $41.00) looks the big improver here at odds. Worked home well late without much luck fresh in the Gold Coast Guineas before going to the Fred Best where he again got back in the run but I really liked the way he finished off his race behind Niccanova. He is a track/distance winner and has enormous upside, so for mine, he is the knockout chance.
Race Six (14:20) : BMW JJ Atkins 1600m:
Back Me: Anything better than even money looks a steal for this high class filly 13 Melody Belle (Bet Now: $1.75). High class youngster for Te Akau Racing that could not have been anymore impressive at her debut down under in the Sires Produce where she was given a lovely steer by Opie Bosson and she went right on with the job. Can only see back to Doomben as a positive and the mile should be no issue.
Big Danger: 3 Capital Gain (Bet Now: $8.50) is potentially the best horse in the race but he just does so much wrong and he is a much better horse than what his record reads. It was hard to make up ground on that Eagle Farm track but he was one of the rare ones that did and was excellent in defeat behind Melody Belle. The mile will be perfect for him and if he is close enough on the turn, he is good enough to win.
Long Shot: 2 Tangled (Bet Now: $11.00) was the horse touted as the winner of this race prior to the Sires Produce after a brilliant win in the Champagne but he was one who just really failed to handle the surface and was beaten quite convincingly. I think you have to put a pen through that and go on his win here in the Champagne, and even the win prior at Wyong.
Race Seven (15:00) : Channel Seven Queensland Derby 2200m:
Back Me: I would have put the pen through 3 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $12.00) had this been at Eagle Farm but 2200m at Doomben on a dry track, I am keeping the faith with him. Superb win two back at Rosehill over 1800m, beating Oklahoma Girl and Cross Stitch, both of which ran brilliantly in the Oaks last week. He struggled at Eagle Farm, so just forget he went around and he was pulled up 250m-300m out so he didn’t have the hard run like those in front. Happy with him each way.
Big Danger: 1 Volatile Mix (Bet Now: $6.50) surprised some with his win in the SA Derby, but make no mistake that the win was outstanding. Proved that was no fluke in the Grand Prix a fortnight back where he charged home and it was only the bob of the head that beat him when second to Order Again. Weiry has proved time and time again that these horses can continue their form despite being deep into a prep.
Long Shot: The X Factor here is a stablemate of Volatile Mix, 12 Rockstar Rebel (Bet Now: $17.00). He was, in my eyes, a horse that would just get back, run on and would always be a perennial blackbooker. Was touted as a SA Derby horse but was horrible at Bendigo as a $1.50 pop. The next start came at Ballarat and that was D-Day for him. Looked as if he was going to be a hard luck story, but Rawiller shoved him through the gap and the horse got home. The trip away could potentially be the making of him, as we have seen with stablemates Volatile Mix and Kenedna.
Race Eight (15:40) : UBET Stradbroke Handicap 1350m:
Back Me: Just have to go with 1 Clearly Innocent (Bet Now: $6.00). Been an important member of his fan club for some time now and he fulfilled his potential as a Group l horse with a crushing win in the Kingsford Smith, lapping up the conditions and going on to spank his rivals. He was only third up there, and from all reports, he has bounced out of that run superbly. Some people have him marked down as a wet tracker…have a look at what he did this time last year on firm ground.
Big Danger: 15 Derryn (Bet Now: $17.00) has been up a very long time but he continues to race at quite a high level. Had he jumped better, he probably wins the 10,000 behind Redzel, but still did a really good job to run third. He then went to the Kingsford Smith where he really struggled on that Eagle Farm track behind Clearly Innocent. Different ball game on the firmer surface and he’s right in it I feel.
Long Shot: 7 In Her Time (Bet Now: $16.00) is a quality mare for Ben Smith who proved during the Autumn that she belongs at this level, and proved it once again when resuming in the 10,000. She did an enormous job behind Redzel given she was wide no cover throughout yet still had the audacity to stick on to run fifth. Break between runs should suit her perfectly, up to 1350m a big tick and she is a pure dry tracker, so she ticks alot of boxes here.
Race Nine (16:20) : Evergreen Turf Brisbane Cup 2200m:
Back Me: All over 5 Neverland (Bet Now: $5.00) here. Former Perth mare who has had three runs for the Weir camp and has gotten better and better with each outing. Last start came in the Premiers Cup where she loomed to win and looked to be bolting but as soon as she was let off the bit, the wheels started spinning. Firmer track here, hard fit, stable in form…very keen.
Big Danger: 4 Top Of My List (Bet Now: $6.00) is a mare in ripping form at the moment. Dominated proceedings to win the JRA Plate during the Sydney Carnival before going to the Lord Mayors Cup where she did work on speed and was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure and clung on. Reservations at 2200m, but she’s hard fit and in super form.
Long Shot: 8 Pemberley (Bet Now: $16.00) could well represent value here. Tempo was against him two back in the Wagga Cup before going to the Premiers Cup where he endured a tough run from the wide gate and despite that, he toughed it out quite strongly I thought when sixth to Kaiser Franz, beaten just under three lengths. He will appreciate the dry track here and he does have fresh legs/upside left.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 13 Melody Belle
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Raiment
VALUE: Race Seven Number 3 Black On Gold
Have A Tip? – Post Your Tip in the Comment Section Below
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 16
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 13, 15, 18
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8
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