It might not be the best day of racing in terms of horse quality, but if you want fun and to have a good time, then Magic Millions Day on the Gold Coast is unquestionably the number one afternoon of racing on the Australian calendar. Nine races are set down, with the two features being the $2 Million Magic Millions Classic (1200m) for the babies and the $1 Million Magic Millions Guineas (1400m) for the three year olds.
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Race One (12:10pm) : Magic Millions Maiden Plate 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: I think punters can start the day on the right note thanks to my best bet on the program, which is here thanks to Hostwin Pegasus, (Best Odds: $6.50) who is having his first run for Gary Moore after formerly being trained by Team Hawkes. He had three runs during the Autumn, behind Law, Bring Me The Maid and Bullpit respectively. He has spanked his rivals in both trials leading up to this, Ollie booked, drawn well…can’t believe they are offering $6.
Big Danger: Homehill (Best Odds: $5.50) is Kelly Schweida trained gelding who has been bursting to win his maiden, but just keeps finding one better. His last two runs have been in the Gold Edition and Vo Rogue respectively, against the best three year olds Queensland has to offer. There are some pretty handy maidens here, but he does look hard to beat back in grade.
Roughie: Mavericks (Best Odds: $11.00) resumes here for Tony McEvoy after two runs during the Winter, where he ran okay. He has since been gelded and has looked quite sharp in a couple of barrier trials back in Sydney. Drawn beautifully and has Christian Reith in the saddle, so he ticks plenty of boxes.
Race Two (12:45pm): Magic Millions Stayers Cup 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to go for some value in Black Jet (Best Odds: $15.00). He ran in a heat of the Subzero Challenge during the Spring at the Valley and was excellent in defeat, then failed at Sandown before being sent home and running on strongly for fifth at Doomben over the mile. 1800m suits, as should a hot speed.
Big Danger: Group l winner Tinto (Best Odds: $6.50) absolutely destroyed her rivals last week in the Bernborough at Toowoomba. The margin might have only been 3/4, but it was a very comfortable 3/4 length win. All three runs from her this time in have been outstanding, and despite topweight and barrier 19, class is going to carry her a very long way.
Roughie: Meteorologist (Best Odds: $31.00) was given a sweet ride by Jim Byrne to win at good odds last Saturday over this track/distance, sitting back and having the last say. Despite the good draw, I’d like to see Tim Clark ride him quiet again, but that is the only successful way this horse can be ridden, and he does handle a wet track.
Race Three (1:25pm) : R.M. Williams Magic Millions Fillies And Mares Quality 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Bit surprised to see that $11 is on offer for Miss Husson (Best Odds: $10.00), because her first up win at Ipswich was electric. Granted, she didn’t beat much, but the turn of foot she showed for a first up run was hugely impressive. Last time she ran on a wet track was here in the Gold Coast Guineas where she was only two lengths off Dothraki. Good enough for me from an inside gate and on her home track.
Big Danger: Tukiyo (Best Odds: $5.50) was given a gun steer by Damian Browne to win the Fillies and Mares quality at Toowoomba last week, sitting just off the speed before pouncing at the top of the straight and holding a decent margin to the line. She again draws well and will have no issues handling the wet, provided it’s not too heavy.
Roughie: Avaladyluck (Best Odds: $13.00) was a bit disappointing here a fortnight back when fifth of eight to Flying Riddle, but perhaps she was in need of the run and being first up, the 56.5kg maybe got the better of her. She has a much better second up record and loves the sting out of the ground.
Race Four (2:00pm) : Myer Magic Millions Sprint 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Real trap race with an abundance of speed engaged here. I’m going to take a chance with gun mare Missy Longstocking (Best Odds: $4.00), who hasn’t raced since running in the 2014 Magic Millions Guineas when eleventh to Sweet Idea after racing very wide. No trials or anything, so it’s really know where she is at fitness wise, but I know she’ll appreciate a hot speed, she is bred to swim and has won two of her three first up runs.
Big Danger: Seeking More (Best Odds: $7.00) has been pretty good in two runs this time, finishing second to The Storeman first up, then doing a power of work when fourth to that mare again. She should get a sweet trip from the inside draw, handles the wet and now is only half a kilo over the minimum.
Roughie: Pickabee (Best Odds: $17.00) had the two runs during the Brisbane Winter, a third to Srikandi followed by a tenth in the Gai Waterhouse Classic to Jazz Song, where she was ridden a bit too aggressively from the wide draw. Resumes without a trial, but does have good first up stats and is another that will be sitting off the hot speed.
Race Five (2:40pm) : Magic Millions Guineas 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Recent history suggests that horses trained outside of Queensland have the slight advantage here. It also says that wide barriers aren’t that important compared to the juvenile race, so with that being the case, I am going to put Liberty Island (Best Odds: $10.00) on top. I made him the best bet on the Randwick Boxing Day program, and after being crunched in betting, he did the same to his rivals, winning and winning with ease. Chris Waller doesn’t send many to the Magic Millions Day, but when he does, he usually strikes. Fast run 1400m looks perfect, and he should be out of trouble from the wide gate.
Big Danger: There have been a few quite critical of Tim Bell and his recent rides on Hijack Hussy (Best Odds: $4.00). I think punters should know by now that the filly is just not a good horse when the gates open and she will be out the back. We have seen the final sectionals she can reel off, and we know how good she is because she did win during Cup week. If you take her, you know you’ll have your heart in your mouth because she’ll be worse than midfield again and looking for luck. If she gets it, she probably wins and blows them away.
Roughie: Going to chuck in Fixation (Best Odds: $61.00) as the roughie in the race. Completely forget his runs back from a spell because he has drawn 11 of 12, 12 of 14 and 14 of 16 respectively. He finally draws a gate and Ryan Wiggins goes back on and he is the only rider to win aboard the horse. He should do no work from the draw and he will be very strong at the end of 1400m.
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Race Six (3:25pm) : Jeep Magic Millions Classic 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Recent stats suggest to win this race you need a filly who has drawn well and is near the top of the betting. I am going with Frequendly (Best Odds: $7.50). She didn’t beat much on New Years Eve at Toowoomba, but the manner in which she did, and the pressure she poured to the leaders and then to keep going was outstanding. There is absolute speed drawn inside and outside of her, and she proved at Toowoomba that she doesn’t have to lead and that she can take a sit. 1200m is the query, so I think Brad Stewart will look to settle in the first five or six, get cover and wait as long as he can. I think if that happens, she is a great chance. Should also be noted she is a winner at the track, which is a huge advantage.
Big Danger: Liam Birchley has gone very close to winning this race in recent years and he looks to have another live chance in 2015 thanks to Saga Of The Storm (Best Odds: $19.00), who stormed home from the back to win last time out at Doomben despite doing plenty wrong in the straight. Recent history does suggest you need a professional type who does everything right to win the race, but this filly just has so much upside and Robert Thompson does stick with the filly and he has been quite bullish about her since winning on her.
Roughie: Gate three gives Le Chef (Best Odds: $26.00) a sneaky upset chance. He got his spot in the field when winning over this track/distance last Saturday, running along at a very strong speed and doing enough to hold on, getting tired late. I doubt Luke Tarrant will give up the lead if he gets, and with this horse, we do know that he can cop pressure and still find at the end of 1200m at the Gold Coast.
Race Seven (4:15pm) : Magic Millions Cup 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I think the Sydney horses are a slight risk here, so I’m going for the old marvel Phelan Ready (Best Odds: $9.00). He hadn’t won since the 2009 Golden Slipper when winning at Doomben in August before being sent down for the Melbourne Spring where he was excellent at Caulfield behind Target In Sight before being injured and sent back home. He won the other day at Doomben, and he was outstanding, winning and winning with ease. He came very close to winning this race last year, and he is going lengths better now.
Big Danger: I’ll put Strawberry Boy (Best Odds: $3.80) in as the threat, purely on class alone. His efforts in the Festival and Villiers were outstanding in defeat, and the form out of both races has been franked. He’ll cop some pressure here to lead, but he should hold it, and we know he can cop it and still find at the end.
Roughie: Palmera Lad (Best Odds: $26.00) is the sneaky outside chance here. Looked in need of the run first up at the Sunshine Coast, then was much better here last week when sixth to Friendly Dragon, beaten five lengths. He now gets to a track with some give in it, tumbles to the minimum weight and Anthony Allen gets back aboard, and he knows the horse very well.
Race Eight (4:50pm) : Sky Racing Magic Millions Plate (C6) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Singo vs Gerry in the last with Murder of Crows (Best Odds: $4.40) and Real Time respectively. Going with Murder Of Crows just. He is becoming a real money muncher with the punters, but his last start effort at Rosehill when third to Haussman was outstanding given he was wide with no cover throughout and was near last. To finish as close as he did was very good, and only needs normal to be right in the finish.
Big Danger: Real Time (Best Odds: $4.00) is building up a nice record down south for Robert Smerdon. She won three on the bounce before having no luck at Sale when third to Smokin’ Al, beaten 1.5L after getting badly held up on the turn. First time racing clockwise and didn’t handle a wet track at his lone run on it, so that’s the query, but you have to respect the Smerdon camp.
Roughie: Architect (Best Odds: $7.00) can be a real tease, but gee this is the sort of race where he can swoop from last and win. He worked home well two back in the George Moore behind Big Money, beaten two lengths, then backed up a week later and wasn’t suited by the on pace bias when sixth to Handyman Bob. He’ll get back from the wide gate and be saved for the straight, and we know he has a booming finish on him when he turns up.
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BEST BET: Race One Number 6 Hostwin Pegasus
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 7 Frequendly
VALUE: Race Two Number 9 Black Jet
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 13, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 10, 12, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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