The Spring Carnival in Sydney reaches its conclusion this Saturday at Randwick, with the feature race being the $500,000 Group l Spring Champion Stakes (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.
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Race One (13:10) : Antler Luggage Kirkham Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Milbo (Best Odds: $6.00) is a Rick Worthington trained filly who ran second to Desirable Miss in that trial mentioned above and while she was placed under pressure, she did look to do everything right and went about her business quite nicely. Definite place chance.Milbo is a first starter for Rick Worthington that trialled well here behind Desirable Miss, and though she was placed under pressure, she did appear to go about her business quite nicely. Was accepted for the Gimcrack but was scratched and instead saved for this.
Big Danger: Star Turn (Best Odds: $1.60) showed good speed to win his barrier trial at Rosehill recently, winning by over two lengths and running pretty decent time. Draws to lead here and on the trial, he should take some beating.
Roughie: Chain Shot (Best Odds: $21.00) has had two trials to prepare for his debut. He won three horse trial at Rosehill before a well beaten fifth to Star Turn at the same track. He has had the two trials under the belt, which I think is an advantage, he draws well and is a chance.
Race Two (13:50) : Bowermans Office Furniture Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: Tremezzina (Best Odds: $3.50) for me here. She was excellent at Warwick Farm behind Denpurr before going to the Reginald Allen at Rosehill and again finishing the race off nicely when fourth to Alart, beaten less than a length. Plenty of upside with her, and this is a fair drop in class, and the stable is flying as always, so she is clearly the one to beat.
Big Danger: Cylinder Beach (Best Odds: $6.50) is a very talented type who is still a maiden but is certainly well above average. He was excellent during the Brisbane Carnival, highlighted by his fast finishing fourth in the J J Atkins behind Press Statement. No trials, but he has class and he will be very strong late.
Roughie: Montauk (Best Odds: $10.00) was given a lovely ride from Hugh Bowman last time out at Warwick Farm where he was ridden with cover and cuddled before eventually getting and though he took his time to wind up, he was very strong late and got the stride in to win. Rises straight up to city grade, but this isn’t overly strong and he can be a threat here. inne
Race Three (14:25) : TFE Hotels Handiap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: Kasiano Lad (Best Odds: $2.00) has been outstanding in two runs back from an 18 month break, winning on both occasions, including last start over this track/distance three weeks back. I think he is better on top of the ground, and third up now, he should be at peak fitness.
Big Danger: Dupe ‘Em (Best Odds: $6.00) was once a rogue who couldn’t really put it all together on the track, but he has really found some consistency this time in, winning a few races. Didn’t mind his effort last time out at Rosehill when making ground behind a Stakes performer in Sure And Fast. He handles all conditions and he does get a 2kg weight pull on Kasiano Lad from when they met here three weeks back.Dupe ‘Em was once a rogue who couldn’t really put it all together on the track, but he has found some real consistency this time in, winning a couple of races. I didn’t mind his effort last start at Rosehill and two back he ran second to Kasiano Lad, and he now meets the horse 2kg better at the weights.
Roughie: The drop back in class should suit talented mare Press Report (Best Odds: $6.50), who has contested Stakes races at her past two outings where she hasn’t received a great amount of luck in running. Yet to run a place in seven outings at Randwick, but most of those have been in quality races.
Race Four (15:00) : Cellarbrations October Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: If Cosmic Cube (Best Odds: $8.00) brings his best form from New Zealand, he’ll blow these away. His form from New Zealand is excellent, in particular early on in his career when trained by Graeme Rogerson. He is now under the care of David Vandyke and he has looked quite sharp in a couple of recent trials. On his best form, he’ll beat these.
Big Danger: She’s Clean (Best Odds: $8.50) was given a peach from McDonald to win first up in the Tibbie on Newcastle Cup Day, charging home from near last to win impressively, and the form from that race has been franked thanks to Two Blue. Recent trial at Rosehill was very sharp and she should take a power of beating.
Roughie: Destiny’s Kiss (Best Odds: $61.00) drops in class after contesting the Bill Ritchie over this track/distance three weeks back yet he worked to the line pretty well late when sixth to Sadler’s Lake, beaten just under three lengths. The dry track is totally against him, but he is the class factor and does perform well when racing at Randwick.
Race Five (15:35) : Myer Spring Fashion Handicap (83) 2000m:
Back Me: Dance Of Heroes (Best Odds: $6.50) has been pretty consistent in recent times, finishing in the placings at his last two starts off the back of a Canterbury win. He ran a desperately close second to Herne’s Oak two back before running second to impressive winner Mr One Eleven. Yet to race at Randwick, but he gives the impression he will like the more spacious surroundings.
Big Danger: Scherzoso (Best Odds: $7.50) has been pretty without much luck in two Sydney runs, the latest being in that Mr One Eleven race where he couldn’t really get a clear crack at them to wind up the motor. Up to 2000m should suit, gate one and recent Group l winning rider takes over the ride, so for mine, he looks a knockout chance.
Roughie: Danjeu (Best Odds: $11.00) looked to trial really well prior to resuming here where he couldn’t get into the race from the back behind Ruling Dynasty. Has since trialled on his home track at Rosehill and looked much better when third to Dothraki. He was very impressive when winning second up last time in, and he has a stack of upside.
Race Six (16:10) : Moet & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: Vanbrugh (Best Odds: $1.95) is the obvious horse to beat. He has really come on at his last two starts, most notably the Gloaming where he powered away and won with real authority. He should win, but as a betting prospect, $1.80 is far too short.
Big Danger: Man Of Choice (Best Odds: $9.00) was a little unlucky not to finish closer behind Gloaming given he got held up on the turn and lost a bit of momentum when Vanbrugh was charging clear. He will relish the rise in trip and is a definite chance at odds.
Roughie: Interested to see I’m Belucci (Best Odds: $41.00) on the quick back up after racing last Saturday over the mile at Doomben. He got too far back from the gate and wanted to lay in down the straight, but he closed off alright. The quick back up for this race has been successful in the past eg Hampton Court last year. He will love 2000m and a big track.
Race Seven (16:50) : McGrath Estate Agents Angst Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: Not sure that Peeping (Best Odds: $4.40) will run the mile out, but she is just so well treated at the weights. Sam Clipperton rode her to absolute perfection when winning the Golden Pendant last start at Rosehill, and she seemed pretty strong at the end of 1400m. The mile is the obvious query, but she is fit and is the clear class runner.
Big Danger: Ballet Suite (Best Odds: $4.80) is a serious winning prospect here. Her two runs back from a break have been solid, including last start at Rosehill when making up a stack of ground to finish just over a length away from Music Magnate. Third up now at the mile so she should take some beating here.
Roughie: Divertire (Best Odds: $15.00) also resumed in the Tibbie and was another that closed off the race very well when fourth to She’s Clean. Three weeks between runs, and up to the mile second up, so that’s a little query, and she can be very hard to trust, but the first up run was too good to ignore. She should be running on hard late and is the knockout chance.
Race Eight (17:30) : Lindblad Expeditions Handicap (85) 1600m:
Back Me: I’m really keen, at a price, on Now’s The Time (Best Odds: $11.00). He trialled really well on a couple of occasions at Rosehill prior to resuming on that track where he made up a stack of ground from the back to run sixth to Artistry, beaten just under two lengths in what was an excellent return. He did something similar first up last time in before running fourth to stablemate and subsequent Stakes winner Ballet Suite. Randwick mile second up is ideal and he should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Rekindled Power (Best Odds: $4.60) is a highly fancied colt for Paul Messara who was pretty ordinary when resuming in the Bill Ritchie behind Sadler’s Lake, running last. I don’t think he is happy on a wet track, so a return to a firmer surface here will be beneficial. He will be a horse regarded as a Stakes contender in Melbourne, so if he was to head that way, he should be beating these. But the first up run was a tad too disappointing to have him on top.
Roughie: Testashadow (Best Odds: $9.00) was terribly unlucky two back behind God’s In Him before getting a touch better luck and finishing his race off strongly when a close up third to Music Magnate. He is proven at this distance range, and has won his lone previous start at Randwick. Hasn’t won for a while, but he is knocking on the door and he gets his chance here.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Vanbrugh
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Cosmic Cube
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 Divertire
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 12
$50 Investment= 3.96% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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