The smell of Spring is in the air at Rosehill this Saturday where it is Missile Stakes Day, headlined by the 1200m feature, which includes top class mare Alizee. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:55) St Johns Park Bowling Club Handicap (70) 1400m
One soft trial is the only niggle re 5 Adana (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS), but I’m keen on him running well fresh. Chris Waller trains this four year old, who was tested at a solid level in the Autumn and didn’t quite measure up, but did contest some strong races. As a gelding, he’s had two first up runs. Won the first one, then fresh last prep, ran a narrow second to the well performed Vegadaze, which was 1400m at this track. Interesting was accepted to resume over 1200m last Saturday, but instead is saved for this.
8 Savoury (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks a talented son of Savabeel for Bjorn Baker who was confidently supported at various stages in betting when debuting at the Canterbury midweeks and helped by a lovely steer just off the speed from Avdulla, the colt got clear air early in the straight and finished best to win. Like the look of him and up to 1400m, on breeding, should be a massive tick.
2 Pembroke Castle (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is a consistent animal for Chris Waller but is just struggling to get another win on the board. Thought Bowman gave him every chance last time out at Canterbury and was there to beat Knowitall Jack, but that horse packed too many late and was too good in the end. Back to 1400m from a soft gate, he’s hard fit, in form…just can’t get a win.
Race 2. (12:30) Campbelltown Catholic Club Handicap (88) 1200m
Just how good is 5 Haut Brion Her? (Bet Now: $1.95 TOP ODDS) Thought the first up win at Canterbury was strong hence why she was hard in the market three weeks ago at Randwick where she took on boom horse Sir Elton and she made that horse look second rate with an outstanding win, putting him very easily and drawing clear like a future Stakes class animal. If she is indeed that, needs to keep handling the rise in depth/grade, which I think she can.
2 Taniko (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings trained mare that is absolutely flying at the moment. Big win two back at Randwick before racing over 1100m here a fortnight ago where she got a mile back in an on pace dominated affair won by Bon Amis, but her late splits were clearly the best of the meeting, closing speed of a blacktype class horse. She’ll love 1200m I think and is one of the hardest to beat.
1 My Xpression (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller trained mare resuming. Former Kiwi that had two runs during the Championships in the PJ Bell and James Carr and both times she was disappointing. Waller has had her for a full prep now and her trial behind Dawn Passage was decent enough. Her NZ form does read very well. Just need to see her translate it to Australia.
Race 3. (13:05) TAB Highway Plate (Class 3) 1800m
14 Isadora Twinkle (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) looks one of the better gambles on the program. The Longmire sisters train this mare, who ran in a 1500m Highway here two weeks ago and though there were a couple of unlucky runners, including the winner Pat’s Nipper, I’m convinced this mare would have won with clear air when Kathy wanted it. 1800m looks ideal and she’ll do me here.
Terry Evans has done a fab job with 3 Onemore Sapphire (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) this time in. Got a well deserved win two back during the Grafton Carnival before going to the 1500m Highway here from two weeks ago when back in trip and finding the line strongly behind Onemore Sapphire. He’s racing as if the 1800m will be perfect and is potentially on trial for a tilt at the Taree Cup.
10 Clergyman (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a Lauren Davies trained gelding who has been excellent this prep. Strung together a couple of placings before going to the Sapphire Coast where he looked a good thing on paper and though helped by the track pattern, he was too good for his rivals. On breeding, he should be fine at the trip and the form around him doesn’t read too bad.
Race 4. (13:40) Missile Stakes 1200m
If you’re going off trials, 4 Alizee (Bet Now: $1.65 TOP ODDS) is a $1.10 chance. But she’s always been a really good trialler, so nothing really out of the ordinary with her two trials in readiness for her return, other than that she’s come back well it seems. Being trained as a sprinter this prep, she could easily blow this field away and potentially be in line for the Godolphin slot in The Everest. Just prefer to see her than take the shorts.
Would not surprise me at all if 1 Le Romain (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) caused an upset. He’s an absolute beauty for Kris Lees and while on paper, wet tracks seem his go, I reckon later in his career, he’s better on top of the ground. Did run a closing second to Alizee in the Expressway first up last prep, with that girl getting clear air out wide while Le Romain was held up. His trials have been very good. Hope he lands near the speed and can get going whenever he wants.
2 Vegadaze (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is the new kid on the block and this will be a good test to see what level he is at. Anthony Cummings trains this four year old, who hasn’t raced since the Randwick Guineas when four lengths off The Autumn Sun in a brutally run affair. Been given a good break and has had two trials, the latest coming on Monday at Gosford when going about his business quite nicely. Likely lands on speed and will give them something to chase.
Race 5. (14:15) The Rosebud 1100m
I reckon Joe Pride has a really good prospect in the shape of 8 Superium (Bet Now: $10.00). 2/2 to start his career in the Autumn, winning on debut at Dubbo before getting the job done in the Wellington Boot. Form out of both of those races re subsequent winners has been good and his three trials indicate he’s flying. First two trials saw him sit off speed and find the line while the latest trial saw him lead and he bolted clear under little pressure. Got a small ticket on him in the Golden Rose at $101. He wins this, he likely comes into $26, maybe shorter.
5 Luccicello (Bet Now: $3.70) looks a really good prospect for Chris Waller who lapped up the firmer footing when bolting up over 1200m here two weeks ago, sitting off a fast speed before being presented clear air and she put the race to bed in a matter of a couple of strides. Likely gets back from the wide gate and will concede a start, but will be motoring at the end.
Not sure this is his level but did like the way 7 Cardiff (Bet Now: $10.00) trialled at Warwick Farm recently. He led all the way under Sam Clipperton and though nudged in the straight, he responded well and won by a space in decent enough time. He looks a real short course specialist, so last bit of this race may test, but on his home track and stable usually have them ready fresh.
Race 6. (14:55) Dooleys Handicap (88) 1400m
I’m a sucker for pain…8 Drachenfels (Bet Now: $4.60) on top. Had enough of him after his run behind Handle The Truth, so jumped off him last Saturday at Randwick and he almost made a fool of me, nearly winning but having to settle for a narrow second to The Party Girl. Rises in grade, but the good thing about that is he gets weight relief, the first time that’s happened since second up where he arguably wins with clear air behind Albumin. He’s flying…just need deep pockets to butter up. Once more for me.
7 Sweet Deal (Bet Now: $3.00) was a month between runs when racing over 1400m at Randwick three weeks back where she attempted to lead all the way, against her normal pattern, and I think it backfired when a tiring fifth to Smartedge. Leading isn’t her go. She’s much better when she has a bunny to chase, so if that eventuates here, I think she’ll take a power of beating.
Want to be forgiving of 5 Notio (Bet Now: $9.00) and his ordinary run behind Travimyfriend at Caulfield a few weeks ago. He showed good ticker to win first up at Sandown before being hard in the market here where he was back in the run and didn’t come on at all behind the former kiwi. I think with a firmer deck, he will really appreciate that, and third up, should be ready fitness wise.
Race 7. (15:35) Bankstown Sports Club Handicap (78) 2000m
5 Nahuel (Bet Now: $7.50) was a funny run behind Curragh four weeks back. He went from bolting to being under pressure and looking like he’d finish a bad last. He did run last, but it wasn’t bad. He got going again, but didn’t get clear air to build the revs. 2000m third up looks a good set up for this Team Freedman runner. Hopefully he can get clear air this time around.
6 Costello (Bet Now: $3.00) was scratched from an 1800m race last Saturday at Randwick in preference of this race and I reckon that’s a positive. The last run was three weeks ago at Randwick over 1800m and he was warming to the task late when second to Dr Drill. Looking for further, which he gets here, and gets back on top of the ground. He’s very likeable.
7 Gayatri (Bet Now: $12.00) is the one that could be at silly odds here. Chris Waller trains this mare, who hasn’t done much in two runs back from a spell, but bear in mind each time she’s been on wet ground, and she just doesn’t go a yard when getting her toe in compared to racing on dry ground, which is what she gets here, so she could easily bounce back here against this lot.
Race 8. (16:15) Cabra Bowls Handicap (78) 1200m
Good lord…it was just an utter nightmare if you were on 8 Oxford Tycoon (Bet Now: $6.50) from two weeks ago. Avdulla got him into the dream spot behind the speed. Problem was he couldn’t get clear air in the straight and pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial. He should have won. Gets a good set up once again. Don’t be surprised if they take bad luck out of the equation and roll forward.
1 Black Magnum (Bet Now: $2.50) has returned in excellent order for the Mark Newnham stable. Gave them a spanking first up at Warwick Farm before going to Canterbury where he was helped by the track pattern but class really came to the fore late in another impressive win. Like the way he’s going about it and third up, he should just about be at peak fitness.
9 Dawn Dawn (Bet Now: $8.50) is a daughter of All Too Hard for Team Hawkes that resumes. This mare had a two run Spring prep last year, running close up at blacktype level behind Winter Bride at Caulfield before being freshened up, racing here and running well behind Newsfan. Just one trial leading in for her return, but she’s got a bit of quality about her and is certainly one to watch.
Race 9. (16:55) Doltone House Marconi Handicap (78) 1500m
I could easily have something on the Tim Martin trained 4 Mapmaker (Bet Now: $11.00). I reckon he gets a really good set up to bounce back into positive form. Had a decent enough run on speed over 1350m here two weeks ago and tried but class found him out late when a tiring fifth to Foxy Housewife. Last time he was at the 1500m on relatively good ground, he was beaten a length by Paret…that’s lengths better than anything engaged here. Just needs to find the front and dictate.
5 Cinqueda (Bet Now: $1.85) is flying for the Freedman camp. Couple of dominant wins at the provincials saw him step up to Saturday grade over 1500m at Rosehill a few weeks ago where he was given an outstanding ride by Blake Shinn and the horse was given every chance. Phaistos was just the better horse on the day. Like the way he’s going about it and should take some beating here.
9 The Promise (Bet Now: $19.00) is a John Thompson trained mare that had specking when resuming over 1300m at Kembla and her late splits were excellent when back and closing off behind Holy Reign, who looks an above average galloper. If she can show a bit more gate speed, she can find the back of likely leader Mapmaker and fitter, up to 1500m, I think she’s a knockout chance.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Alizee
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 8 Superium
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Mapmaker
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 8
Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 7
Leg Three: 1, 8
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 9, 10
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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