It’s ‘Super Saturday’ at Flemington this Saturday with a bumper nine race program, headlined by the two majors, the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and Australian Cup (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:15) The Melbourne Cup Carnival On Sale Handicap (90) 1000m
3 Nasdex (Bet Now: $3.40) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained four year old that is absolutely low flying at the moment. Far from disgraced two back behind Lady Esprit and Snitty Kitty, who both ran super in the Oakleigh Plate, before going down the Flemington straight where he was on speed and fought on well behind Ken’s Dream. That reads well for this.
Very wary of 6 Thelburg (Bet Now: $10.00). John Sadler trains this galloper, who is absolutely loaded with talent but can do plenty wrong, plus has had issues. His recent jump out was very good to the eye and I like him fresh at 1000m down the straight, plus is drawn out, which is perfect. I think he’s a definite threat.
2 Demonstrate (Bet Now: $7.00) rises back up in grade but I thought there was good merit in his win last time out over the 955m at the Valley. Williams had him parked behind the speed and was waiting for the gap to appear, which it did, and he burst through to win impressively. Has run well down the straight before and draws well.
Race 2. (12:50) Club Stand Handicap (90) 1800m
3 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $9.00) was outstanding in the Kings Will Dream race here three weeks back. The jump out prior suggested he might need the run but I thought his finale behind the Weir runner was great, clocking some of the fastest splits of the meeting. He’ll eat up the 1800m here and has a stack of upside.
5 Kings Will Dream (Bet Now: $1.75) is a progressive Darren Weir runner who is unbeaten in three runs in Australia, the latest coming over the mile here where he looked pretty comfortable throughout and never really looked like getting beat. Little query at 1800m but he gives the impression it should be okay.
Very wary of 1 Harrison (Bet Now: $10.00), making his Australian debut for the Williams camp. This lightly raced gelding brings some high class form to him from the UK, with his latest run being in the Gold Cup behind Big Orange at Royal Ascot. Stable has had their runners ready to rock and roll so far this Autumn. Expect nothing less.
Race 3. (13:25) HKJC Trophy (84) 1400m
12 Notio (Bet Now: $4.20) looks extremely hard to beat here. He’s flying for Team Hawkes but hasn’t put the win on the board to confirm that. Ran over the mile here three weeks back and was very good in defeat when second to a really good one in Kings Will Dream. Back to 1400m is of some slight concern, but down in the weights and has a turn of foot.
6 Portman (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Danny O’Brien trained gelding who produced a lovely return down the straight six here three weeks ago, closing off with purpose late behind impressive winner and Newmarket contender Ken’s Dream. Comfortable winner at this track/distance second up last prep and looks a better horse this time around.
8 Tiamo Grace (Bet Now: $21.00) is the big watch here. Darren Weir trains this quality mare, who had a three run Spring prep, with an eye towards the Caulfield Cup, but nothing went right there and the prep was halted. Comes here with a really good break under the belt, and we know the quality is there. Market will be your guide.
Race 4. (14:05) MSS Security Sires Produce Stakes 1400m
Liking 2 Sanctimonius (Bet Now: $8.00). Toyed with them two back at the Valley before backing up a week later and racing in the Inglis Classic at Warwick Farm where he was four and five wide throughout and did a mighty job to run second to The Enzo. That looks decent enough form. Just hoping Williams can get cover from the sticky draw.
6 Tin Hat (Bet Now: $4.80) looks a lovely type for the Godolphin camp and James Cummings. Good debut at Newcastle behind Outrageous before going to Ballarat where he looked in a bit of trouble but his class/quality kicked in and he proved too good. Think the Flemington 1400m will be ideal and he maps to get a lovely run off the pace.
Have to be forgiving of 8 Syd’s Coin (Bet Now: $35.00) last time out at Caulfield. They absolutely crawled in front and the horse just pulled too hard and was very keen throughout when fourth to Nasaayim. That will be the key to him here. He needs a tempo in front of him. If he gets it here, I think he’ll run a ripping race at odds.
Race 5. (14:40) TAB Kewney Stakes 1400m
I’m all over 2 Seannie (Bet Now: $6.00) here. The Busuttin/Young team have this filly low flying at the moment. Both runs have come over the 1200m at the valley, scoring a stunning win first up before running a mighty race in the Typhoon Tracy after being in a hopeless spot in running. I think she’ll eat up 1400m here and is clearly on top for me.
All you can do is win and that is what 3 Summer Sham (Bet Now: $7.00) has done for Danny O’Brien, winning three from three, the latest coming in the Angus Armanasco when leading throughout in what was just pure sustained speed. Caulfield 1400m and Flemington 1400m are different beasts, but she is trained here, which helps offset that somewhat.
5 Smart Coupe (Bet Now: $10.00) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained filly who finished down the track behind Summer Sham in the Armanasco, but I think you have to be a bit forgiving. She was awkward to begin, like she was in the Kevin Hayes. Just had to do a bit too much work to get up on speed and that early effort told late. I think if she gets a soft run, and jumps cleanly, she’s in the game.
Race 6. (15:15) Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
I’ll be having two bets in the Newmarket. The horse that is on top for me and the main bet will be 4 Rich Charm (Bet Now: $9.50 BOOSTED ODDS). He is an absolute beauty for the Udyata Clarke team and to my eye can only run well. Resumed in the Rubiton at Caulfield and really, he should have won, but just had no luck at all in the straight when appearing to be bolting. Career best efforts have come down the Flemington straight and right down in the weights, he’ll run a beauty for sure.
11 Merchant Navy (Bet Now: $6.00 BOOSTED ODDS) has to be seriously respected. He too comes through the Rubiton and his effort was more than satisfactory in defeat after doing work in the run. Loomed to win but probably just ran out of condition late, which was to be expected given this has been his target all campaign. Beautifully in at the weights and his win here in the Coolmore was one of the wins of the season to date.
I can’t believe the price of 15 Catchy (Bet Now: $14.00 BOOSTED ODDS). She’s my other bet. I thought her effort first up in the Oakleigh Plate was sensational behind Russian Revolution. Bungled the start, back near last in the run, horses everywhere, yet still rattled home to run an eye catching sixth. Excellent win in the Danehill in the Spring and forget the Coolmore run because she raced like a tired horse. Definite winning chance for mine.
Race 7. (16:00) Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Keen here on 1 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $4.20). I’m happy to forgive her two runs this time in. The CF Orr, the bias/tempo was against her and then in the Futurity, she just got too far back but her finale was sound. Back to her own sex, back to the track/distance of her career best win, and really, she should be beating these.
5 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Ken Keys trained mare who landed some big bets when resuming with a dominant win over 1400m here three weeks back. Aided by a lovely ride from Ben Thompson, she was near the speed throughout before getting clear and showing nice change up speed to score. Should only improve and up to the mile is a big tick.
7 Ma Jones (Bet Now: $13.00) comes through the Spanish Reef race three weeks ago and I thought her first up run there was excellent, finishing off strongly from the back to run third, being beaten a couple of lengths. Is a noted second up performer and this does look a target race for the Darren Weir trained mare.
Race 8. (16:35) TAB Australian Cup 2000m
I think this race is all about 9 The Taj Mahal (Bet Now: $7.50) and where his fitness levels are at. The way I see it, he’s a four year old stallion prospect, already a Group ll winner. Get a Group l win here and his life post racing is secure. I think he’ll be wound up to win. Probably not ready first up last prep but the subsequent runs in the Emirates and then the Zipping Classic were outstanding. Stable low flying already.
The obvious horse to beat is 4 Gailo Chop (Bet Now: $3.20). He’ll be up on speed, dominating proceedings and doing his thing. That’s how he has won both starts this time in, the latest being the Peter Young where he was pretty much gifted the race on a platter and it really only turned into a 600m dash. Think he’ll cop more pressure here, and last time that happened was in the Cox Plate where he was beaten a fair way out. That’s the slight concern.
I think there is still a bit of value about 10 Homesman (Bet Now: $12.00) for Team Williams. Lot to like about his Australian debut win at Caulfield a fortnight back in the Mornington Cup Prelude when leading all the way under Ben Melham. Bit of credit to the horse because he had the Melbourne Cup winner Almandin looming large to beat him, and for several moments looked as if he had Homesman, but he just wouldn’t turn it up and kept finding. I think he’s right in this.
Race 9. (17:20) Incognitus Stakes 1110m
If you backed 3 Regimen (Bet Now: $4.20) first up in the Typhoon Tracy, apologies for the nightmare. She should have gone awfully close to winning but just had no luck at all in the run when appearing to be bolting. First look down the straight, and the query of second up syndrome, but the run was too good to ignore.
Forgive a horse for one poor run so I’ll do that with 1 Prezado (Bet Now: $5.00). Resumption behind Nature Strip here was fabulous before going to the Rubiton where he raced quite flat behind Super Cash in what was a hot race. Back to his own age, back down the straight, should stalk Regimen and have last look.
Can’t knock a winner and that is what 6 Twilight Song (Bet Now: $4.80) is. Hayes/Dabernig trains this filly, who won well on debut at Caulfield before leading throughout at Sandown over 1200m and she was very good there because she was there to be beaten but found plenty in the straight. Draws the right part of the track and back to 1100m is ideal.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 3 Regimen
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Sin To Win
VALUE: Race Five Number 2 Seannie
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 11, 15
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7
Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 10
Leg Four: 3
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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