10/3/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Doomben

Nine races will be run and won at Doomben this Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

If 4 Xebec (Bet Now: $1.85) can’t win this race, he won’t be winning anywhere else. On the quick back up after racing over 2000m at Randwick last Saturday where he got the split and loomed large to win but just didn’t finish it off behind Just Shine. Give in the track will suit him, and this is the easiest race he has contested in a long time.

3 Irish Optimism (Bet Now: $3.10) is four weeks between runs for Chris Waller since running a game second to Morendi at this track/distance where he chased hard down the entire straight but had to settle for second. Tick over trial last week at the Gold Coast was good enough and he has to be considered here for sure.

1 Morendi (Bet Now: $4.60) is racing in career best form for the Darren Graham team. He is on the quick back up after racing over the 2040m here last Saturday when leading all the way under Boris Thornton and showing great fight when it looked as if Exoteric would nab him. Clearly more depth here, but had to knock a winner.

5 Miss Sara (Bet Now: $1.70) is on the quick back up for the Les Ross team after racing last Saturday over 1200m here where she got back off the pace but worked home with purpose late behind dominant winner Plumaro. I think she’ll love the rise to 1350m and there is no horse with the quality of Plumaro here.

1 You Know The One (Bet Now: $6.00) is a John Zielke trained youngster who is four weeks between runs since resuming over the short course here where they were a bit sharp for him I thought when fourth to Mishani Hustler, a race which looked to have good depth to it. The 1350m should suit and this isn’t a strong race.

2 Stately Manner (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Team Guy trained gelding who had trialled well prior to debuting at Lismore where he got off the pace in what was a slowly run affair and he would have had to produce sub 34 to win. Very hard for a two year old to do that, especially at that track. Encouraging run and he should improve off that.

I think 5 Savwell (Bet Now: $3.70) is a near good thing here. I think with time he’ll end up being a blacktype performer. This bloke was a month between runs and back in trip when racing at the Ipswich midweeks yet he produced a brilliant finale from the back to get the job done. Up to the mile is perfect, bigger track yes, a winner…keen.

7 Aquatic…(Bet Now: $2.10) well once upon a time, he was a cat, but he’s a winning machine recently for Chris Waller, winning at Canterbury before getting the job done in tough style at Warwick Farm. Just over three weeks between runs the slight concern, but hard to ignore the form around him from Sydney.

I think 10 Rhyming (Bet Now: $5.00) is the knockout. She’s similar to stablemate Prioritise. Runs well, just doesn’t win, but with 49.5kg on her back, I think she can run a ripping race. Ran over the 1350m here last Saturday and was really warming to the task late behind Don’t Tell Mama. Back up to the mile is ideal and I think she can definitely win.

Looks a good race for 5 Let’s Get Nauti Gal (Bet Now: $7.00). Kris Lees trains this filly and she does hold a nomination for the Oaks in Sydney so it’ll be interesting to see her go around. Seemingly every chance last time out over 1550m at Canterbury but that race carried far more depth than what she faces here, and career best efforts have come on rain affected ground.

6 Don’t Leave Me Out (Bet Now: $4.80) is three weeks between runs for the Rob Heathcoate team after racing over the 1050m here where he looked to travel well behind the speed and tried hard when clear but was no match for the turn of foot produced by Setoga, who ran well without luck last Saturday. Up to 1350m the query, but racing too well to dismiss.

8 Great Powers (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Les Ross trained filly who is on the quick back up after breaking the maiden tag last Thursday at Beaudesert when finishing off with purpose late out wide under Taylor Marshall to score. She’ll have no trouble with 1350m, has upside and has different form, which is always respected.

2 Niccanova (Bet Now: $2.15) on top for me. Very talented four year old who resumes for the Steve Tregea camp. He hasn’t raced since the Winter Carnival last year where he last raced in the Queensland Guineas when third to Salsonic. Has had issues since, but is back and looked to trial well enough at Toowoomba to suggest he’s forward enough to run well fresh.

1 Fortensky (Bet Now: $2.50) is an absolute beauty for the Chris Waller team. On the quick back up after racing over 1400m at the Sunny Coast on Sunday where he looked all over a winner 250m out but he was outgunned late by Dream Finnish. I reckon back to the Doomben 1350m is perfect, he’s hard fit and in form.

One last chance for 3 Flamboyer (Bet Now: $8.50). He ran behind Fortensky on Sunday at the Sunny Coast and I thought he was awful. Had a cheap lead, should have kicked on much better but he was the first horse beat. The only positive, albeit it a big one, is that Lloyd steers, and his aggressive style might get the best out of this horse.

I think 8 Soft Top (Bet Now: $17.00) is well over the odds here for Ian Savins. This girl hasn’t raced for a month since closing off strongly from the back in a Highway at Warwick Farm, where we have already seen a couple of winners to come out of it. She has run well on soft ground before and stable finds Jeff Lloyd.

3 Suggan Buggan (Bet Now: $2.90) had been racing really well without winning in recent times but that all changed last Friday night at the Sunny Coast where he looked a good thing on paper and won accordingly, spanking his rivals as a short priced elect. I reckon that will do his confidence the world of good and he can certainly beat these.

6 Suilven (Bet Now: $7.50) is racing in career best form at the moment for the Bryan Dais team. Won his first two runs this prep at the Gold Coast and Ipswich in impressive fashion before racing over the 1400m at the Gold Coast last time out where he sat on speed and fought hard all the way but had to settle for a narrow second to Tivoli Street. An unknown on rain affected ground, but the claim helps, hard fit and in form.

7 Live Fast (Bet Now: $5.00) on top. Tony Sears trains this galloper, who is on the quick back up after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where he chased hard all the way but the winner Martinelli just had it too good on speed. I think back to 1050m is a big tick, draws a lovely gate and Taylor Marshall is on.

9 Tversky (Bet Now: $3.10) is the best horse in the race but it’s just an unknown as to how well he is going. He comes through the Martnelli race mentioned above from last weekend and I think it was a total forgive gien he was wide throughout. Draws much better this time around and Fradd takes over. He can bounce back hard.

13 Secret Mo (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Lindsay Gough trained gelding who was solid enough in betting when resuming at this track/distance three weeks back but I reckon the wet track and the fact he was first up probably just told on him late behind Yarrapower. I think that run will bring him right on for this assignment and he is a second up winner.

6 Criquette (Bet Now: $2.15) on top for me. The Wood/Gesler stable trains this mare, who hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing at this track/distance where I thought Larry gave the mare every chance but she just had no answers for the finishing burst of Publishing Power. Should come on from that and I think she can go one better.

7 Inspired Estelle (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Toby Edmonds trained mare who is four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she was confidently backed late but to the eye, I thought she was disappointing behind Hanwritten. She’s much better than that and perhaps the break between runs to freshen her up will do her the world of good.

8 Real Ego (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Rex Lipp trained gelding who deserves a crack in town off the back of his gutsy win at the Gold Coast back on Feb 21 where he sat near the speed and chased hard all the way to outgun Zendaye in a close go. Should do no work from the inside draw and has run okay on affected ground before.

Looks absolutely beautiful placement from Chris Waller here with 12 Queen Of Heights (Bet Now: $5.50). This mare makes her Queensland debut after a string good efforts at metro level in Sydney, her latest run being over 1900m at Canterbury behind Just Shine, who won last Saturday, so that form reads very well for this.

1 Diamonds Are (Bet Now: $2.00) is racing in career best form for the Michael Costa team. He hasn’t raced for three weeks since coming with a well timed run under Scott Galloway to nab Sweet Adaline right on the peg. Meets that horse 1kg better off here, so he’ll hold her I think, he draws well and handles all conditions.

15 Givus A Cuddle (Bet Now: $15.00) looks a silly price. This mare ran over the 1400m at the Sunny Coast last time out where she tried really hard in the straight and didn’t turn it up at all when second to dominant winner Bred For Luck. Has run well at the mile before and handles a wet track, so she ticks a few boxes.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Savwell

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 12 Queen Of Heights

VALUE: Race Six Number 8 Soft Top

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 6, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 9, 13

Leg Three: 6, 7, 8

Leg Four: 1, 12, 15, 17

$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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