10/2/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hobart, Hobart Cup day

The Tassie Carnival continues this Sunday at Hobart with one of their biggest days on the calendar, Hobart Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres from the 1150m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

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6 La Dernier Fille (Bet Now: $5.50) is a progressive mare for the Tegan Keys stable who has won four of her seven career outings. She ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks ago where she got a lovely sit just off the speed and once Voorham got into clear air, she dashed and put the race to bed rather quickly. That was her first run in five weeks so there should be room for improvement.

Up in trip should suit 2 Century Arrow (Bet Now: $1.95), who got things to suit on speed last time over the mile at Launceston under Darmanin and when clicked up on the turn, he put them away rather nicely and was pretty strong to the line. Been given a little freshen up and should lead these for fun again. Not as good as Hobart as he is at Launceston, but looks hard to beat all the same.

1 Gallow Gate (Bet Now: $34.00) has quality on his side and class, which could well carry him the long way. He resumed over 1400m at Launceston where he got back in the run and remained there for the most part behind Bosporus. Good second up record and has placed in both career runs at Hobart. Might want another and further, but does have class with him.

2 Gratius (Bet Now: $2.90) on top in a tricky maiden over the mile. Ian Hay trains this 11 start veteran, who has placed on four occasions, the latest of those being last start over 1400m when savaging the line late to run a narrow second, coming back from the mile the start prior. Now back up to 1600m, he seems to be knocking on the door to win one and he’ll do me.

5 San You (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Paul Hill trained gelding who looks to be a coming maiden winner and I think he gets a great chance here. He ran over 1400m at Launceston last time and worked to the line strongly from off the pace when second to Caesar’s Quest. Seems to save his best for the Devonport Synthetic but that last run was more than encouraging to figure in the finish here.

13 Rodessa (Bet Now: $17.00) is a John Blacker trained mare who has been around the traps for 19 starts for just the one minor placing, so it’s hardly a glowing endorsement leading into a maiden on the biggest day on the calendar for Tassie racing, but her runs haven’t been too bad of late. Was in a sticky spot all the way last time and couldn’t really get into the race. Doubt she wins, but probably can add value to multiples.

4 Stinka (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. Marion Dalco trains this gelding, who was four weeks between runs when racing over 1400m at Launceston where he got back to midfield in the run and finished off strongly late in the piece when third to Shenanigator. That was his first run at 1400m for the campaign and it was really good, so I think he’s well placed to get another win on the board.

5 The Auditor (Bet Now: $4.00) is very likeable here. Scott Brunton trains this bloke, who resumed over 1100m here and stuck to the task very well when a close up second to Gee Gee Pengala. Up to 1400m straight away second up looks a good sign and there has already been market support. Just doesn’t want to get too far back in the run because he can be tardy away.

8 Tough Rubble (Bet Now: $35.00) could be a sleeper at odds. Scott Brunton trains this gelding, who resumed over 1100m here where he got a fair way back in the run and was never really a winning threat but he did make up decent ground late in the piece behind Gee Gee Pengala. He’ll likely give them a start but will be strong late and always have to respect the stable on a big day.

1 Manilenya (Bet Now: $3.10) comes a fair way back in trip after racing over 2100m last time where he was just a tad outclassed but far from disgraced. This far back in trip the query but will be strong late and Maskiell is riding in super form.

8 Col’s Hero (Bet Now: $7.50) has been a real model of consistency in recent times, finishing top four in each of his five runs this time in, the latest a fourth over 1200m at Launceston behind Merciabelle. Up to 1400m should suit him I think and he does have a solid record at Hobart, plus with the claim for Voorham, and the soft gate, I think he can only run well.

5 Beautiful Boy (Bet Now: $8.00) is an Adam Trinder trained gelding who resumed over 1200m at Launceston on January 23 where he seemed to get over from the wide gate relatively comfortably and he seemed to have his chance but his first up record and replays suggest he needs the run, and that’s what happened. He is a second up winner and stable is going quite nicely.

I’ll be in the corner of the proven champ in 1 Hellova Street (Bet Now: $3.00),  who was an outstanding winner of the Sky Stakes over 1200m here a couple of weeks back, leading all the way and running clear for a dominant win in sharp time, his first run in a month. Better suited at 1400m, should land in front and he’ll likely have a start on Mystic Journey…hopefully his toughness gets his home.

7 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $2.20 PROMO ODDS) has got the brilliance factor covered over Hellova Street but this will be a really good guide for her as to whether or not she’s a contender or pretender. The Lady Lynette win was simply stunning, and the time backed it up with the filly running some of the best sectionals ever record in Tassie racing in winning. Good test, but gets the weight pull and up to 1400m will suit.

2 Chamois Road (Bet Now: $6.50) is an absolute beauty who rarely runs a bad race. Patrick Payne trains this bloke, who comes through the John Dillon at Caulfield where he had the suck run behind the speed and chased hard as he always does when third to Rock ‘N’ Gold. He is just so damn honest, rarely runs a bad race and can sit wherever he pleases. He’ll run well I’m sure.

I’ll just go the way of 1 Chillout (Bet Now: $5.00) for Barry Campbell. This son of Artie Schiller last raced on January 9 on the Devonport Synthetic where he ran really well in defeat after sitting just off the pace when third to Liffeybeau. Has an outstanding record at Hobart, 1100m is ideal and he is a dynamite horse when produced on the fresh side so happy to be in his corner.

3 Mandela Effect (Bet Now: $2.00) is a son of Turffontein resuming for Scott Brunton. This four year old hasn’t raced since Cup Day at Flemington when struggling on the bog behind the above average galloper Fifty Stars. Looked to trial up really well here last week to the eye and he has a very good first up record. Market will be the guide, but I suspect he’ll be ready to go.

9 Apriano (Bet Now: $20.00) rises a fair bit in depth, but he’s hard fit and is racing in okay form. Ran over 1200m at Launceston in a weak open handicap where he landed on speed and fought on gamely when fourth to Blaze Forth. He does tend to race better at Hobart and I think back to 1100m will really suit. Not sure he has the class to win, but could fill a first four spot.

Looks perfectly placed does 3 Rock Dove (Bet Now: $4.40).  Still can’t get over how she didn’t win at Cranbourne last time. Got the bias in her favour, led, controlled, kicked on the turn and looked home but was nailed on the peg by Stornaway. Been kept on ice since that run, comes here fresh, should land somewhere near the pace and she does look to have a bit of class against these.

1 Our Long Sali (Bet Now: $2.05) appears to be suited up in trip. She started Winx odds when lining up in the Thousand Guineas where she just got too far back in the run but finished off with real purpose to just miss out on picking up Shady Hustle. Really good record at Hobart and though unproven at the trip, she’s racing as if the 2100m will suit, and is the pick of the locals.

6 Dream Big (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained filly who hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing over 2000m at Flemington where she was a bit one paced to the line but stuck to the task pretty well in defeat behind Oceanex, beaten five lengths in a race which had depth to it. Think the 2100m will be fine for her and Maskiell and his style will really suit this filly I think.

2 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $3.30) is unknown at the trip but the last start suggested it’ll be okay. He ran over 2000m at Caulfield and at the 600m mark, it was no betting. He was tracking up and looking the winner. Peeled out and thought he’d explode but he just grinded but kept finding when a narrow second to Tarquin. Off that, the 2400m is suitable and stable is absolutely flying at the moment.

4 Lamborghini (Bet Now: $3.70) is on the quick back up for the Patrick Payne stable after racing last Saturday at Caulfield where he sat back in the run before peeling wider on the turn and letting down strongly to overhaul his rivals in a race which didn’t look overall that much harder than what he faces here. Trip should be okay for him and he does have a strong turn of foot.

In terms of the locals, 7 Zatacla (Bet Now: $19.00) could be one to include in multiples. Ran in the Summer Cup over 2200m here last time out where he was in behind the speed and was rather one paced to the line but stuck on in defeat when third to Eastender. It would be a massive shock if he was to win this race, but the trip should be okay, down in the weights…he can add value to exotics.

Want to give 4 Garland (Bet Now: $9.00) another chance. Barry Campbell trains this mare, who was hard in the market when resuming over this track/distance and after a tardy beginning, she got back to near last in the small field and didn’t show anything in a most disappointing performance. Stewards Report has Froggy saying the horse might not have been 100% breathing wise, so perhaps there were excuses. Keen to see her again because at her best, she’s just about got these covered.

2 Geegee Trendsetter (Bet Now: $6.00) is a ripping mare for the Gandy stable who has been running some really honest races in recent times, the latest at this track/distance when running a close up second to the in form Miss Smith, who nailed her near the peg. Likely leads this field up…her best chance of winning will be if she can get a cheap mid race furlong.

9 Miss Smith (Bet Now: $11.00) is a John Luttrell trained mare who won well here two back when chasing from off the speed prior to running over 1200m at Launceston where she just lacked the turn of foot but was more than sound late behind I Remember You. Tends to save her best for Hobart so returning back here in a winnable race, she certainly appeals here.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Al Galayel

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Gratius

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 4 Stinka

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 9

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Three: 2, 4

Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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