The Autumn Carnival in Melbourne swings into gear this Saturday at Caulfield with several blacktype events on the nine race card, headlined by the Group l CF Orr Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:30) Thebigscreencompany.com.au Handicap 1800m
2 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $4.00) is a high quality stayer that is first up for the Darren Weir yard. He was bursting to win a race during the Spring Carnival but just couldn’t quite greet the judge in several quality staying events, most notably the Geelong Cup where he probably should have won had he got clear air. Jump outs have been good and appears forward enough to my to run well fresh.
4 Plot The Course (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Michael Trotter trained galloper who is racing just so well at the moment. He ran second to Morton’s Fork here two weeks ago and tried very hard to reel that horse in but never looked like doing it. I think the rise to 1800m will suit him perfectly, and the weight swing does help.
Very interested to see what 1 Goldstream (Bet Now: $19.00) does here. He has promised so much since coming to Australia but overall, he has done nothing and has been a major flop. In saying that, both runs this time in have been in races which he has clearly not been suited in. If he can’t run well here, he can’t run well anywhere.
Race 2. (13:05) Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (Fillies) 1100m
2 Oohood (Bet Now: $2.90) for me. Was on her in the Preview and dear me, it was just an utter nightmare if you were on. Back, held up badly, got clear very late and savages the line to just miss where she probably wins in another stride or two. Hopefully she gets clear air this time so we can properly see what’s under the hood.
7 Seabrook (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Hinchinbrook filly first up for the Mick Price team. She has only had the one career outing, which came on Cox Plate Day in the Inglis Banner where I thought she was a real eye catcher behind Setsuna. Thought her recent Geelong trial was very good and is on her home track for the resumption.
3 Enbihaar (Bet Now: $14.00) was a big query when debuting on the Parks track a few weeks back because she hadn’t trialled publicly and there was no real market support. But in the end, she scored a pretty sharp debut win, and the time was okay for the meeting. Looks talented and up to 1100m at start number two looks no issue for mine.
Race 3. (13:40) Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Prelude (Boys) 1100m
6 Plague Stone (Bet Now: $3.50) looks a good thing to my eye. I think he’ll win the Slipper and he can kick off the prep with a win here. Heavily backed on debut at Rosehill late last year where he started around $1.30 but he threw the race away behind Secret Lady by wanting to pull his head off in the run and then wander about in the straight. The trial win at Warwick Farm last week was as good as you’ll see and if he relaxes in the run, he wins.
Pretty confident that 3 Written By (Bet Now: $10.00) goes close. Son of Written Tycoon for Grahame Begg who debuted at Sandown back in November and was pretty dominant in winning, beating Sanctimonius, who of course bolted up at the Valley on Friday night. Trial win on Monday at Cranbourne was outstanding and he looks ready to go.
4 Bionics (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Hinchinbrook colt that resumes for the Ellerton/Zahra team. This bloke kicked off his career with a couple of runs in the Spring where he ran second on debut behind Setsuna before a fourth behind Run Naan in the Maribyrnong Plate. Recent Flemington jump out was very good and he looks to have come back in nice order.
Race 4. (14:15) Ladbrokes TS Carlyon Cup 1600m
Sticking with the class, which clearly is 1 Gailo Chop (Bet Now: $2.00). His Spring prep was very good, highlighted by a win in the Caulfield Stakes followed by a game fifth to Winx in the Cox Plate. By the time he got to the Emirates, he looked like a tired horse. He has a really good fresh record and a recent jump out was outstanding. Looks ready to go.
3 Wyndspelle (Bet Now: $3.80) is a four year old trained by Mick Kent who does look well placed second up at the mile here. He resumed in the John Dillon over 1400m a fortnight back where the slow tempo really didn’t suit him at all but his effort was more than sound in defeat behind Tshahitsi. Goes well second up and the 1600m is a big tick.
2 Lord Fandango (Bet Now: $11.00) is a high quality up and coming stayer that resumes for the Archie Alexander team. Brilliant winner of the Benalla Cup before taking out the Herbert Power and qualifying for the Caulfield Cup where he ran a mighty fourth to Boom Time. 1600m fresh tells me he’s forward enough to run well, and he does have a stack of upside career wise.
Race 5. (14:50) Kevin Hayes Stakes 1200m
3 Booker (Bet Now: $4.00) is a high class filly that resumes for the Ellerton/Zahra yard. This girl had a four run Spring prep, highlighted by a win in the Thousand Guineas Prelude before a sixth to Aloisia in the Thousand Guineas. I think the mile/middle distance caper isn’t her go. I think she will make a dynamic sprinter and she looks to be trained for that based on her recent Flemington jump out win.
2 Tulip (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained filly that is first up. This daughter of Pierro had a mixed Spring prep, though she did run a game fifth behind Redzel in the Everest and in terms of sprinting, that’s the best form you could have next to your name. Her jump outs have been very good and she looks ready to go.
4 Leather’n’lace (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Street Cry filly first up for the Darren Weir yard. This girl hasn’t raced since the Thousand Guineas where she attempted to lead all the way and ran out of gas rather quickly behind Aloisia. I think sprinting might be her go and gee I have liked what I have seen from her at the jump outs.
Race 6. (15:25) Schweppes Rubiton Stakes 1100m
Taking a chance on 8 Ardrossan (Bet Now: $4.60) being too sharp/brilliant for them. Very promising colt making his Australian debut for Mick Price after formerly racing in NZ. To be fair, he didn’t beat much in his two career outings over there, but he ran good time when winning each start and he has that ideal racing pattern of putting himself on speed. Looks ready to go.
6 Merchant Navy (Bet Now: $4.00) is the best sprinting three year old in Australia as it stands right now and it’s great to see him back on track. We last saw him in the Coolmore where he produced a win that saw him compared to Winx in terms of devastating brilliance. That’s as good as it gets for compliments. He’ll improve off this given the Newmarket is the goal, but he has class/brilliance.
5 Cannyescent (Bet Now: $17.00) is the big watch for mine. Very talented galloper that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team after a mixed Winter/Spring prep, which ended with a down the track effort in the Sir Rupert Clarke behind Santa Ana Lane. He is an absolute bomb when produced fresh and his jump outs have been outstanding.
Race 7. (16:05) Hyland Race Colours Autumn Stakes 1400m
2 Villermont (Bet Now: $6.00) gets the nod for me. Very well bred youngster who is first up for Aaron Purcell and the noise surrounding this horse has been very positive. Showed really good promise in the Spring, ending the prep with an outstanding win in the Sandown Guineas. His trials/jump outs have been great and he looks forward enough for 1400m fresh.
1 Levendi (Bet Now: $6.50) is a high quality three year old first up for the Gelagotis boys. He ended his Spring Carnival with a rather dominant win in the Carbine Club, a race which always produces top class horses. In saying that, I thought a recent Cranbourne jump out from him was just fair. Still, he has the class/quality to win for sure.
3 Astoria (Bet Now: $11.00) is a quality three year old that resumes for the James Cummings team. This bloke hasn’t raced since the Victoria Derby when running a game third to Ace High, beaten just over two lengths. Trialled up really nicely last week behind Testashadow, goes well fresh and I think he is the clear value.
Race 8. (16:45) Ladbrokes CF Orr Stakes 1400m
Enormous respect to 3 Tosen Stardom (Bet Now: $4.20), who to my eye looks forward enough to run a ripper here first up. He hasn’t raced since the Spring Carnival when coming with a devastating turn of foot to win the Emirates Stakes and securing his post racing career in the breeding barn. His work does suggest he’s somewhat wound up to run well.
Gee I’m scared stiff of 11 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $7.00). Chris Waller could have easily had her resume in the Breeders in Sydney but 1400m first up at Group l level tells me there is intent to run very well here. The Cantala Mile winner has been great at the trials to the eye, she draws to get a lovely run off the pace, and on firm ground, she is lethal.
6 Tshahitsi (Bet Now: $14.00) is the Tassie war horse who I think has earned a throw at the stumps here. Admittedly he was gifted the John Dillon Stakes a fortnight back but gee he had to dig deep late but found. Great trait to have and something most Group l horses need in order to be successful at the top level. Not sure he can win, but a must for exotics.
Race 9. (17:25) Mypunter.com Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes 1200m
7 Petition (Bet Now: $6.00) for me in the get out. Quality mare for the Freedman camp that resumes. She had a luckless Spring prep, and most had her as one of the hardest to beat in the Myer Classic but unfortunately she couldn’t get a run. Went to the Summoned and raced flat behind Long Time Ago before being tipped out. Goes well fresh and her jump outs have been very good.
5 Flippant (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Team Snowden mare who should appreciate racing back against her own sex after taking on some big boys in the Australia Stakes where she was a bit disappointing behind Thronum. Think the rain that night didn’t help her cause either because she is much better on top of the ground. Giving her another look.
4 Flying Jess (Bet Now: $12.00) is a John Moloney trained daughter of Hinchinbrook that resumes. This girl ran a couple of ripping seconds during the Spring Carnival but when it came to the crunch, she couldn’t measure up. Trials/jump outs have been okay for her, she can pull out a run fresh and is on her home track. Can add some value to multiples for sure.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Plague Stone
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Gailo Chop
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 Villermont
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7
$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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